UK Strategic Planning

[chrisp65]

3 minutes ago, blandy said:

Yeah it does.

I hope you don't think I'm arguing that Wales shouldn't have whatever the right amount of money spent on rail etc. I'm certainly not. On the amount of track how do costs work out - where's the expense - I mean if you have a large mostly rural area with long stretches of track between junctions, signal boxes, stations etc is the cost lower per mile to maintain all that, because it's actually the complicated bits that demand the time and effort, or is it like if you have a more packed, less rural area, like say the West Midlands, with loads of signal boxes, junctions and stations, that that is cheaper per mile to maintain?

So to re-emphasise. I agree with you that Wales (or Lowestoft or Cornwall or the North etc.) needs more focus on sorting out the creaking rail and other infrastructure and London perhaps should get back in the queue for a while, if there's not enough money to go round.

No I don’t think that’s your argument at all, and I wish it was as easy to separate out other areas and then I could stop banging on about Wales. I’m convinced similar spending issues will exist for Devon and Lincolnshire.

No idea on what costs money on railways, but I would know Newport thru to Swansea would be very urban and very congested. Fishguard to Carmarthen, not so much.

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

a big chunk of Wales track mileage is not high speed

I saw a thing once, on the Mash website which was along the lines of: "Rail commuters up north admit they have no need to go anywhere quickly. Trains that will go to Manchester from Yorkshire to Manchester very fast won't give folk time to have a proper brew and are seen as "neither use nor ornament" .
One said:"we have no meetings or 'owt to attend , we just like looking at moorland scenery and dry stone walls, mostly. It were t'same wi' the internet  - everyone just stuck wi'  using pigeons f't'messages, we're not mithered by hi tech this n'that".
A government spokesperson said that If you're an unemployed northerner or you work down't pit you have no need for a HS2 train, so we're going to spend all the money on a high-speed rail link between London and another bit of London"

[sidcow]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

On the London thing, and this isn't meant to be a repudiation of what you say, because undoubtedly London is far too powerful and influential and over-represented, if that's the right word - the UK is too centralised...

...but. Look at the M40. I dunno exactly when it opened, but it was in my lifetime and along its route loads of stuff has sprung up, towns expanded, business parks, houses you name it. And towns and villages have been boosted by people moving there (to spend their money) because they could now commute to London in an hour or whatever. It's not a complete analogy, as obviously the motorway has plenty junctions and the train won't (afaik). But for example, someone could live near to a station and commute to and from that London but be spending their wages in a warwickshire town or a cheshire town or etc. perhaps, in the same way?

There is a substantial development being developed next to the Solihull HS2 Station. Even talks of Heartlands Hospital moving there. Thousands of homes and shops and business areas. 

[blandy]

On 11/03/2023 at 16:51, chrisp65 said:

In the article you’ve quoted, it says Wales will lose £150 million a year every year due to HS2. So that £750 Million will hopefully offset the first 5 years of that loss.

Ignoring the location, as we’ve said you could switch it for Cornwall or East Anglia, and acknowledging we’ve already covered that the “loss” is a projection, I think it’s worth one more question or comment. Wales (or etc..) doesn’t lose £150 million, it loses out by… In other words new gains go (they reckon) to places close to HS2 and not to South Wales, because the transport network isn’t, or won’t be, as good there as elsewhere. So Cornwall and South Wales etc. don’t get the benefit and are comparatively, potentially less attractive to new income compared to London or Manchester or Brum because of HS2. And that’ll be the same for any or all strategic infrastructure projects. The gains will go to the places where the money is spent and to places closer to the projects themselves. The adverse effects (environmental destruction, noise, pollution etc) will also go to the places closer to the projects.

With a lot of these big strategic projects it seems like the benefits never come, but the downsides always do.

[Stevo985]

On 10/03/2023 at 09:53, Genie said:

Has anyone suggested how making the project take even longer to complete saves money?

Anyone who isn’t the CEO on a reported £620,000 per year. 

I don't know if this came into it, but I know building costs and raw material especially are absolutely sky high at the moment. So maybe some of the logic is delaying it will mean prices will have come down again in future and that element of it will cost less.

I have no idea if any savings there would be enough to offset other costs of delaying, just a stab in the dark

[villa4europe]

Like I said the main reason will be risk 

You give Mr contractor a design to riba stage 3.5 for £1bn worth of work on a fixed price lump sum basis and Mr contractor will give you a quote of about £1.2bn if not more

The further away from 100% complete the design is the more it will cost, the problem with most government jobs I've done is they rush to contract out of fear of having money taken out of their budget, including my last project which was for the NHS which needed another 4 to 6 months in design for a tiny £1.5m job, my old company should be looking to make a 20% mark up from probably another £1m in variations, if they were contractual and went for the jugular theyd absolutely hammer it...HS2 is using tier 1 contractors who absolutely are contractual and will go for the jugular, there will be some horrific variations and claims on the project because of poor design 

Slow it down design it properly de-risk it, value engineer it, spend less 

That does include the current state of prices, although it's settling down now, I'd also guess that a fair few contractors who signed contracts last year either put in price escalation clauses or again if they weren't allowed then you price it as risk 

I think the majority of the work is on NEC contracts which means the contractors can do that 

Edit - I also think they're on negotiated two stage tenders which means they aren't ultra competitive 

Edited March 13, 2023 by villa4europe

[bickster]

 

[Chindie]

There must be a Brummie multibillionaire who can give back to the city with major investment on an underground system.

[bickster]

Just now, Chindie said:

There must be a Brummie multibillionaire who can give back to the city with major investment on an underground system.

Pete Waterman would be in if it was powered by steam  

[Chindie]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

Pete Waterman would be in if it was powered by steam  

...

Deal.

[chrisp65]

Nuclear power stations to be reclassified as environmentally sustainable, giving them the tax incentives and advantages of renewables, so they will be slightly less economically ridiculous. The plan being, 25% of all our energy to be derived from nuclear reactors big and small and yet to be invented.

I’d be interested to see the logic that allows them to be described as sustainable. Given that each nuclear site will take 10 years to build, be active for 50 years, and then be toxic for a thousand years.

[Stevo985]

Talk to me about 15 minute cities.

They seem to be getting picked up by the usual right wing nutters (Katie Hopkins) as restrictions on our freedom and being twisted into things they're not like "You're only allowed to travel for 15 minutes)

As far as I can tell all it is is making sure certain areas have enough amenities within a 15 minute walk or bike ride that people don't need to travel beyond that and therefore it'll lessen the need for public transport and car use. You can still travel if you want.

 

Have I got it wrong?

[chrisp65]

Yep, that’s my understanding, it’s trying to change planning regs so all the essential regular bits of life are within a 15 / 20 minute walk of where you live. Trying integrate work, home, and everyday shopping rather than having silos where you have to commute for hours to do work, then on the weekend you have to drive to the shopping mall to pick up basic groceries.

The idea is to reduce the need for car use, which will promote community and reduce pollution.

We’ve already seen in other threads here what reducing car use and traffic calming can do to people. They fear the loss of their car and their right to drive everywhere. I think this is what is seen as a socialist plot to undermine freedom, the reduction of private car use. I think.

What I do know, is that my local Patriotic Alternative organiser, the guy that set up the local division of the EDL and is openly self declared violent right winger and has done time for stabbing. He’s very much against 15 minute cities. So I have to draw conclusions from that.

 

[Davkaus]

From what I can tell, the controversy stems from plans in some cities to "ban" travel between 15 minute zones by car, by which they actually mean shutting down some rat runs and directing traffic to ring roads.

[Genie]

15 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

From what I can tell, the controversy stems from plans in some cities to "ban" travel between 15 minute zones by car, by which they actually mean shutting down some rat runs and directing traffic to ring roads.

So they’ll make journeys that many people will make longer and increase pollution. It doesn’t seem that well designed for real life.

[chrisp65]

9 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

From what I can tell, the controversy stems from plans in some cities to "ban" travel between 15 minute zones by car, by which they actually mean shutting down some rat runs and directing traffic to ring roads.

Yeah that’s my understanding, traffic calming in built up areas including introduction of 20mph limits as a default, and closing some streets and closing traffic routes around schools at critical times. 

We moved to where we live to be close to a decent school. It’s absolute carnage at 8:35am and 3:00pm just that real stereotype traffic jamb of 4x4 BMW’s trying to get as close as possible to the school gate before parking on the pavement. The catchment area for the school is supposed to be walking distance. I can see the school from my house, I’ve also see my neighbour drive their kid to school. If the stretch of road outside the school was closed, then their nearest parking space, would be outside next door’s house.

The idea is to encourage people not to have getting in the car as a first instinct. We’ve all done it, we’ve all got in the car to drive two blocks to pick up a loaf of bread because that’s quicker than walking. We just need to think a bit more. Perhaps we also need private electric bikes to be a bit more accessibly priced and safer to use. It’s all a bit chicken and egg and needs a level of co-ordination we haven’t shown ourselves to be great at recently.

I think Dem has been critical of road closures in his area.

 

[Davkaus]

7 minutes ago, Genie said:

So they’ll make journeys that many people will make longer and increase pollution. It doesn’t seem that well designed for real life.

Certainly a possibility, the counter would be that it'll discourage some people from shorter journeys that could easily be done on foot, bike, or public transport

I don't feel particularly strongly about it, but it certainly isn't the "ban" that some conspiracy nutters are going on about (that have even been shared on here)

Edited April 3, 2023 by Davkaus

[Genie]

1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

Yeah that’s my understanding, traffic calming in built up areas including introduction of 20mph limits as a default, and closing some streets and closing traffic routes around schools at critical times. 

We moved to where we live to be close to a decent school. It’s absolute carnage at 8:35am and 3:00pm just that real stereotype traffic jamb of 4x4 BMW’s trying to get as close as possible to the school gate before parking on the pavement. The catchment area for the school is supposed to be walking distance. I can see the school from my house, I’ve also see my neighbour drive their kid to school. If the stretch of road outside the school was closed, then their nearest parking space, would be outside next door’s house.

The idea is to encourage people not to have getting in the car as a first instinct. We’ve all done it, we’ve all got in the car to drive two blocks to pick up a loaf of bread because that’s quicker than walking. We just need to think a bit more. Perhaps we also need private electric bikes to be a bit more accessibly priced and safer to use. It’s all a bit chicken and egg and needs a level of co-ordination we haven’t shown ourselves to be great at recently.

I think Dem has been critical of road closures in his area.

 

I think a big part of the laziness is the UK weather. My kids school is about 10 minute walk away and it’s a lovely walk… in the summer. 

With the best will in the world we’re not doing that when it’s pissing down, wind, minus 5 degrees etc.

[chrisp65]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

I think a big part of the laziness is the UK weather. My kids school is about 10 minute walk away and it’s a lovely walk… in the summer. 

With the best will in the world we’re not doing that when it’s pissing down, wind, minus 5 degrees etc.

C’mon, de icing the car rather than a 10 minute walk in a proper coat?

I know what you mean, it’s not pleasant when its a bit squally and there’s some rain in your face, but that’s not really reason enough to fire up the power station to charge the tesla, is it? Or more likely right now, run the diesel car engine until its warm enough to drive 600 metres.

It’s mindset, people will stretch themselves to that Mercedes they can’t really quite afford, but won’t buy a decent coat. If the weather was genuinely awful in some way, truly high winds or genuinely snowing, the school would be shut anyway. I live on the brow of a hill overlooking the coast, there weren’t very many school days when it was genuinely too atrocious to stick a decent pair of shoes on and get out there. I think it is laziness and comfort. Followed by tutting about pollution and asthma, and rising flood waters. 

[Chindie]

The 15 minute cities thing has blown up because Oxford Council has decided to implement traffic management systems that essentially close off certain roads at certain times for anything but buses. Unless you have a permit, going down those roads in your car would see you get a fine, and even the permit would limit the amount of times you can use the road. Oxford is famously anti-car anyway but this was seen as a step too far.

It then got picked up by the conspiracy loons that it was actually part of a huge conspiracy by *pick your supranational organisation of choice* to control and ultimately kill off vast swathes of the population as part of some sinister plot, which has all been laid out in various documents that they have released, with climate change etc being given as the Trojan horse to get it in place.

The QAnon Anonymous podcast had someone attend the protest and interview lots of the people there. They're mental, mostly.