Rob182 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, colhint said: Appreciate the advice Dad was a bookie so i'm well aware of the risk . my plan is to only bet on sports i know plenty about . i may bet on the womens euros and then the womans rugby world cup. i think i know more than most on them . ill never bet on horses i dont know enough about it . and again it will be pre planned bets never on the fly . i don't intend it to be a regular income stream now people have explained decimal odds include the stake it's easy It’s easy to understand, but not easy to put into practice. Your £300 preplanned bet on England U19 would have lost you £300. My advice would be start smaller. See how you feel after losing…. say… £50. (Which is still a lot for a new gambler). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 Yup don't bet enough to know that it was only on 90 mins. but i would only bet on outrights. My goal is to risk about a grand over the next year to see i can more than my pension in % terms, after all they are just betting on their knowledge . if get to a point where im losing regularly i'll quit i have only had about a dozen bets in the last 30 years so i know its not going to become a habit and I have made about 30 bets in my head in the last 5 years, all in sports I know about and if I had placed them at the bookies l would be well up. It has to be this year though because there is a lot of sports in my field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted July 2, 2022 Author Share Posted July 2, 2022 When Israel beat France I was certain we would win. I watched most of the games. That's when I decided on the bet of £300. That would have been my first bet online that's why I was unsure of the decimals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyM3000 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Funnily enough I've made most my money from gambling betting against Villa. I don't know when we will play well but I've got a good idea of when we are going to bottle it (e.g every time we take the lead v Man Utd). I work in the gambling industry and while not directly with sportsbook I'd strongly advise you to stay as far away as you can from it. Only a handful of people have the skillset to make money against bookies and they have to jump from account to account in order to keep going, winning accounts just get shut down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 Well it would definitely be a good earner to bet on an opposition win if Villa ever go 2-0 up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, AndyM3000 said: Funnily enough I've made most my money from gambling betting against Villa. I don't know when we will play well but I've got a good idea of when we are going to bottle it (e.g every time we take the lead v Man Utd). I work in the gambling industry and while not directly with sportsbook I'd strongly advise you to stay as far away as you can from it. Only a handful of people have the skillset to make money against bookies and they have to jump from account to account in order to keep going, winning accounts just get shut down. Same, made a lot of money betting against us. Wolves and City last season were big wins. Bet on them to win after we were 2-0. It's called an emotional hedge. If we win all good, if we somehow collapse and lose in final 20 mins from 2-0 up I win big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 17 hours ago, KentVillan said: When you do the maths on the betting markets, I don't know why anyone bothers, unless you're just doing it for a bit of fun. The bookies price everything so you have to have an enormous edge to make a consistent profit, and if you find a consistent edge they'll usually limit your stakes or block your account. I used to have a complicated formula a few years back. Betting on teams to win by a certain point at certain amount in game e.g. someone like Chelsea to be winning by the 10th minute mark if they got a corner after 5-6 minutes. That would usually be 12/14-1 shot so could pay well as plenty of goals scored from set pieces during a league season, just a question of timing (or on other occasions opposition team doing a counter attack and scoring themselves). Pretty much given all that up due to VAR tbh. Can remember xmas 2019 and three games in a row in the day...would've won about 700 quid but VAR disallowed three goals from three different games for those ridiculous shoulder arm offsides. Other formula I used to have was betting on a penalty being scored after 75 minutes. A few years back that was always a 20-25/1 shot so worth sticking a tenner on. Can remember that time when Mahrez blazed over v Liverpool and that cost me nearly 400 quid. Benteke v West Brom in 2015 won me a similar amount. Again though with VAR penalty odds are pretty low throughout the game so not worth bothering unless you're dumping 30 + quid. Just stick to accys now. Can go months without winning and then won three in six weeks end of last season. On final day I put a fiver and won 700 quid. That included Man. City beating us with that comeback and I didn't even realise until I watched MOTD that evening that Chelsea had only beaten Watford last minute so there's always element of luck in those days (always avoid the early Saturday kick off aswell as nothing more annoying than not even making 3pms for your accy!). Bet365 pay off on the match aswell when your chosen team is 2 goals up aswell so they don't even have to all win. For a safe accy just put in majority of PSG, Celtic, Rangers, Man. City, Liverpool, Bayern, Real Madrid every week as they all win 25-30 games a season and then add in a Spurs or Chelsea type who are in form and from a tenner you'll probably get 200 + from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Davkaus said: I appreciate that this is unsolicited advice, and you're well within your rights to tell me to mind my own business, but I think this is a big mistake and you should reconsider. I'm not particularly anti-gambling, I like a bet with spare cash, and I do alright, and any losses, I put down to an entertainment expense. If you want a flutter, go for it. The idea of chucking £300 on a bet when you're new to online gambling is pretty crazy, but I thought "well, it's your money, if you're happy to lose it". The fact you're planning this months in advance and starting to put money aside for it suggests to me it's not just "this will make the game more fun, if I lose, never mind", but that you're going into this with a serious expectation of making profit, and I've seen too many people go down that path and start chasing to re-gain their losses and losing some very serious money. Be careful, take a step back, and consider the best use of several hundreds of pounds is risking it on chance. You're new to it, you may well make mistakes, not just picking bad bets, but not understanding all of the terms, etc. If you're going to place a few bets online, cool, but start small, learn what you're doing, and make the rookie errors with a few quid, not a few hundred. Yeah good advice. I made mistakes like that a few years back. Easy to put tenners down at a time but they add up over the day/weekend and if you don't win much you've lost a decent amount. Of course the buzz of your balance going from £0 to 450 in one click is great but that's simply not sustainable long term unless you're amazing at sensing moments or studying form. Best to stick with accumulators imo and if you win 400/500 quid from 6-7 matches by Sunday afternoon, withdraw 80% of that for general life situations and then spend last 100 quid on one of the evening matches and see if you can make some more profit. That's certainly given me a better life situation these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 hour ago, foreveryoung said: I'm surprised your not a little bit more conversant if your dad was a bookie. Knowing certain sports is not really gonna help, we all know the Villa, but wouldn't really splash big money on them at any time. It's a mugs game, you can earn a bit matched betting, having the edge, but standard betting is just luck and risk. Betting against us when we're leading Man. United in last 20 years must've got someone a deposit on house in Erdington as that's free money generally! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 hour ago, colhint said: Yup don't bet enough to know that it was only on 90 mins. but i would only bet on outrights. My goal is to risk about a grand over the next year to see i can more than my pension in % terms, after all they are just betting on their knowledge . if get to a point where im losing regularly i'll quit i have only had about a dozen bets in the last 30 years so i know its not going to become a habit and I have made about 30 bets in my head in the last 5 years, all in sports I know about and if I had placed them at the bookies l would be well up. It has to be this year though because there is a lot of sports in my field Well if you're really going to dump 1k in next year then I would suggest betting against us on certain occasions. Think how p***ed off you were at losing to Watford home and away. Now imagine if you were putting 50 quid on Watford to beat us at VP. I imagine they were about 4/1 to win that day so that would be 250 quid relatively painless e.g. if you lose the bet that means we've got a point at least. Then you have extreme examples like us 2-0 up at home to Wolves and I imagine Wolves were crazy odds to win that in the end but it happened (although that situation really is 100/1 + shot We'll improve next season I'm sure but we'll still have those type of results especially at VP. Might aswell get 50/100 quid from us mugging up a winnable game than just spamming the Gerrard out thread with another 20 posts but each to their own I guess. Another fun one would be to group together some of the teams we want to finish above next season e.g. Wolves, West Ham, Leicester, Newcastle, Brighton and put a fiver on them all to win so if you lose the bet some of them won't obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 17 hours ago, KentVillan said: When you do the maths on the betting markets, I don't know why anyone bothers, unless you're just doing it for a bit of fun. The bookies price everything so you have to have an enormous edge to make a consistent profit, and if you find a consistent edge they'll usually limit your stakes or block your account. True the over round or margin that bookies add makes it more difficult. Betting exchanges will always give you better odds and have very small overround so I'd always advise using them in general like betfair. But the advantage the punter has is we can pick our fights, bookies need to fight on all fronts. Take a weekends horse racing, there are hundreds of horses racing and I only need to find one or two I think the market or bookies have priced incorrectly to have an edge. If you approach it looking for good bets instead of specific events you want to bet on. For example deciding you will bet on a specific football match rather than looking at all the games and seeing if there is a good bet. So by having the ability to pick what we bet on and when we can have an edge. If there is no good bet that weekend then you don't bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Betting against us when we're leading Man. United in last 20 years must've got someone a deposit on house in Erdington as that's free money generally! Man City to win last day of the season would have been a earner too when we were 2-0 up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 1 minute ago, foreveryoung said: Man City to win last day of the season would have been a earner too when we were 2-0 up. I wasn't really studying that match as was watching it but think Man. City were low odds throughout as everyone just assumed they'd get the result they needed so not sure if they'd have gone out to a ridiculous price especially as they got back to 1-2 quickly. Nothing was riding on that for us bar pride so far worse was Wolves as that messed us up early season and lead to Dean losing his job so that was much worse to me (and obviously far more profitable given it was definition of freak result based on first 75 minutes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, CVByrne said: True the over round or margin that bookies add makes it more difficult. Betting exchanges will always give you better odds and have very small overround so I'd always advise using them in general like betfair. But the advantage the punter has is we can pick our fights, bookies need to fight on all fronts. Take a weekends horse racing, there are hundreds of horses racing and I only need to find one or two I think the market or bookies have priced incorrectly to have an edge. If you approach it looking for good bets instead of specific events you want to bet on. For example deciding you will bet on a specific football match rather than looking at all the games and seeing if there is a good bet. So by having the ability to pick what we bet on and when we can have an edge. If there is no good bet that weekend then you don't bet. Good example of that would be Everton back end of last season. Terrible for months but you always felt they'd pull out wins when they really needed. Yet bookies couldn't really price them as favourites to win against likes of Chelsea and Man. United even at Goodison just down to that logic. I actually put a fiver on them to beat Chelsea at home as they were 5 points off Burnley going into that game so felt last chance for them. They were 4/1 to win that at home against Chelsea team who have terrible recent record at Goodison. Think they were about 3/1 to win the next week at Leicester who'd just lost a euro SF and had nothing to play for in league so that was a nice one to bump up the weekly accumulator amongst likes of PSG and Man. City. Leeds winning at Brentford last day would be another example given the respective form of both teams going into that match. Leeds not winning for months and Brentford in superb form etc. Little loopholes that can pay off in the last 10 games if you study the form closely enough. Us in 2012-15 period of suddenly picking up form in last three months of season another example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted July 2, 2022 Share Posted July 2, 2022 (edited) 6 hours ago, CVByrne said: True the over round or margin that bookies add makes it more difficult. Betting exchanges will always give you better odds and have very small overround so I'd always advise using them in general like betfair. But the advantage the punter has is we can pick our fights, bookies need to fight on all fronts. Take a weekends horse racing, there are hundreds of horses racing and I only need to find one or two I think the market or bookies have priced incorrectly to have an edge. If you approach it looking for good bets instead of specific events you want to bet on. For example deciding you will bet on a specific football match rather than looking at all the games and seeing if there is a good bet. So by having the ability to pick what we bet on and when we can have an edge. If there is no good bet that weekend then you don't bet. I've found most of the "value" comes in-game (very specifically looking at football here). Outside of that.... no. Edited July 2, 2022 by bobzy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted July 4, 2022 Share Posted July 4, 2022 On 02/07/2022 at 14:04, colhint said: Yup don't bet enough to know that it was only on 90 mins. but i would only bet on outrights. My goal is to risk about a grand over the next year to see i can more than my pension in % terms, after all they are just betting on their knowledge . if get to a point where im losing regularly i'll quit i have only had about a dozen bets in the last 30 years so i know its not going to become a habit and I have made about 30 bets in my head in the last 5 years, all in sports I know about and if I had placed them at the bookies l would be well up. It has to be this year though because there is a lot of sports in my field All the sports knowledge on earth won't help you if you don't understand maths . England football teams are always terrible value for starters because people back England regardless. Betting on football in general is just a bad idea due to the draw. (So perfectly illustrated by the bet that started the thread) The fact that you think "knowing more than most" about women's rugby somehow give's you an edge absolutely blows my mind . I beg you as a fellow Villa fan to rethink your entire strategy . Spend that £300 on a holiday or give 30 homeless people a tenner or something . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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