The AVFC FFP thread

[david-avfc]

On 19/02/2024 at 18:53, villa4europe said:

Our wage bill is €223m a year?!

So let's say with the players out on loan we have a 30 man squad 

That's an average of €7.4m per year per player, or an average of €143k a week, or £122k per week, or a complete load of utter bollocks 

Players don’t just get paid on salaries though, they get a huge amount of money through bonuses - performance bonuses, signing bonuses, loyalty bonuses, image rights etc.

For example Mbappe’s contract at Real Madrid is reportedly €15m wages per year and €150m signing bonus plus image rights, so the wages are less than 10% of the total package. Villa obviously won’t have anything as extreme but goes to show there’s a lot more to player contracts than the reported wage.

Last published accounts showed total wage costs around £137m, there’s no reason to doubt that it could now be as high as €220m (£190m) if the club chose to blow the budget - would probably include the costs of sacking Gerrard + team and appointing Emery + team, big wages for new players and big signing fees for Kamara and Coutinho

Edited February 21 by david-avfc

[wishywashy]

 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

Full piece at: https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/how-adidas-kit-deal-catapult-28681921

How Adidas kit deal will catapult Aston Villa into global market and help FFP calculation

" The potential for further financial growth is clear and the deal with Adidas could be worth hundreds of millions of pounds in the coming years, which can help the club's position in terms of Financial Fair Play. Villa chief Heck knows exactly how such deals can catapult clubs and franchises into the global market.

At a local level, Villa's superstore is due to double in size this summer as Heck explained: "we are going to be very, very active with merchandising."

Edited February 23 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[VillaChris]

On 19/02/2024 at 22:21, Delphinho123 said:

My take on FFP and Villa is this - bearing in mind I have no fu****g idea how it works. 

Firstly, I don’t think we’re in *great* danger of failing it. There just isn’t any way we sign Rogers if we’re borderline and fearing punishment. The counter argument to this of course is, ‘Rogers is Ramsey’s replacement when we need to sell in the Summer’ - I don’t buy it.

Secondly, I don’t think the people running this club would gamble the long term future of it by making really, really bad decisions. I have to believe this - albeit the wages of some of our players is shocking. (The Gerrard era was catastrophic).

Thirdly, and I think this is the most important part of it all. All of our problems go away if we qualify for the CL because the revenue will plug a massive gap. We may not even choose to sign anyone and I still think we’ll have a very competitive squad next season. CL is everything this year. If we fail to qualify, looking at the numbers being thrown around, we may need to sell somebody like Luiz or Ramsey just to balance the books. 

But what do I know. This season is massive. 

That's my take aswell given my incremental knowledge of the inner workings of FFP.

When people say they'd be o.k with us finishing 6th now I don't think they realise that missing out on CL could impact us for the next five years given the delicate nature of our squad and where we are positioned with FFP.

I don't think we're in any danger of being charged in the short term but ultimately Everton have been deducted points and Forest will probably follow suit in next few months so the warning is there.

The opportunity is there to make CL so let's do it and embrace something we wouldn't have played in since the early 80s and then hopefully the accountants at the club can juggle the finances enough so we can be competitive next season.

Having to do that on Europa league income would be far far harder and feels inevitable we'd need a Grealish type sale in the near future.

[villan95]

 

 

[allani]

45 minutes ago, villan95 said:

It's an interesting exchange that you could read in very different ways.  I mean I think we all expect that we will try and sell some players this summer - preferably those whose costs don't meet the value they add to the squad.  It's very easy to read what Emery says as suggesting that we might have to sell a squad player that we might not necessarily want to in an ideal world.  It's also very easy to read it as we might have to sell a more important player. 

My general feeling is that he's talking about less important players (i.e. where we already have cover or where the player's a regular part of the match day squad but not a key player) rather than hinting that we might need to sell a Watkins / Luiz type player.  I'd put Ramsey closer to the latter of those two categories as he seems to be getting plenty of minutes now he's back from injury.

Edited February 23 by allani

[duke313]

2 minutes ago, allani said:

It's an interesting exchange that you could read in very different ways.  I mean I think we all expect that we will try and sell some players this summer - preferably those whose costs don't meet the value they add to the squad.  It's very easy to read what Emery says as suggesting that we might have to sell a squad player that we might not necessarily have to.  It's also very easy to read it as we might have to sell a more important player. 

My general feeling is that he's talking about less important players (i.e. where we already have cover or where the player's a regular part of the match day squad but not a key player) rather than hinting that we might need to sell a Watkins / Luiz type player.  I'd put Ramsey closer to the latter of those two categories as he seems to be getting plenty of minutes now he's back from injury.

Ramsey won't be sold, not unless some academy players break through to the first team or we resign Grealish, we need JJ for Euro squad registration.

[CVByrne]

1 minute ago, duke313 said:

Ramsey won't be sold, not unless some academy players break through to the first team or we resign Grealish, we need JJ for Euro squad registration.

Selling any key player who hasn't joined in the last 3 seasons will generate a lot of revenue. People are mixing JJ up with the other players we've sold like Archer AJ and Philogene. None of those were first team players but could still generate £40m in income. 

I think selling Cash and replacing him is more likely. While Digne, Dendoncker, Sanson will all move on to improv our FFP accounts 

[CVByrne]

6 minutes ago, duke313 said:

Ramsey won't be sold, not unless some academy players break through to the first team or we resign Grealish, we need JJ for Euro squad registration.

I think we'll resign Philogene to help with the Euro Squad so we'll have JJ and Philogene as home grown 

[allani]

4 hours ago, VillaChris said:

That's my take aswell given my incremental knowledge of the inner workings of FFP.

When people say they'd be o.k with us finishing 6th now I don't think they realise that missing out on CL could impact us for the next five years given the delicate nature of our squad and where we are positioned with FFP.

I don't think we're in any danger of being charged in the short term but ultimately Everton have been deducted points and Forest will probably follow suit in next few months so the warning is there.

The opportunity is there to make CL so let's do it and embrace something we wouldn't have played in since the early 80s and then hopefully the accountants at the club can juggle the finances enough so we can be competitive next season.

Having to do that on Europa league income would be far far harder and feels inevitable we'd need a Grealish type sale in the near future.

If the club are gambling on us finishing Top 4 otherwise we're ****ed from an FFP perspective then ultimately we are going to get ****ed sooner or later.  It's just not sensible to assume that we are going to finish in the Top 4 or 5 for the next few years.  As Emery says there are up to 6 or 7 teams better than us on paper.  Obviously football isn't played on paper and spending ****loads isn't a guarantee of building a good team either.  The top of the PL is hopefully going to get much more competitive over the next few seasons - there's already 8 or 9 teams who could realistically claim to be aiming for Europa League qualification or better next season.  Which means that some are going to miss out.  Any club that is "all in" on qualifying for Europe as the only way of meeting their FFP is going to come unstuck very, very quickly.

6th would be a terrific season for us.  If the owners have put us in a position that it becomes a major failure then very serious questions need to be asked indeed about the way the club is being run.  Obviously qualifying for the CL would be a great boost financially - but it has to be a boost IF we qualify rather than a massive burden if we don't.

[villa4europe]

32 minutes ago, villan95 said:

i would say every manager at every club in the PL could state that headline

even city had to cash in on palmer

we probably do have to sell, the "drama" is the nonsense that we have to sell a crown jewell

[allani]

11 minutes ago, duke313 said:

Ramsey won't be sold, not unless some academy players break through to the first team or we resign Grealish, we need JJ for Euro squad registration.

That's definitely my take too.  I am sure that we will have no need to sell any player that Emery regards as "key" this summer.  It is always possible of course that we receive an offer that becomes very difficult / impossible to turn down (and CL qualification would make it less likely that a player would push for a move to a CL team).  But if that does happen then I think we're in the best position for years to find an effective replacement (who might develop into an improvement) quickly and without breaking the bank.  The Home Grown consideration is an extra one that I think might get overlooked during the general speculation / rumour phase.

[allani]

10 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

I think we'll resign Philogene to help with the Euro Squad so we'll have JJ and Philogene as home grown 

Isn't the challenge still going to be that he wants to be playing every week?  Emery wanted him in the squad this season (and gave him minutes in the pre-season matches) but he chose to move away.  Has he done enough to prove that he's going to be in our starting XI next season?  Would he be happy to be on the bench?  I suspect he's probably gone from being a squad player to being in the match day squad - but is that enough for him?  He's still got some seriously good players to jump ahead of to get a significant amount of playing time each week (Ramsey and Buendia).  Our home grown position hasn't changed significantly from this season to next (as far as I can think) so why would it suddenly be so much more urgent?

[MrBlack]

48 minutes ago, allani said:

It's an interesting exchange that you could read in very different ways.  I mean I think we all expect that we will try and sell some players this summer - preferably those whose costs don't meet the value they add to the squad.  It's very easy to read what Emery says as suggesting that we might have to sell a squad player that we might not necessarily want to in an ideal world.  It's also very easy to read it as we might have to sell a more important player. 

My general feeling is that he's talking about less important players (i.e. where we already have cover or where the player's a regular part of the match day squad but not a key player) rather than hinting that we might need to sell a Watkins / Luiz type player.  I'd put Ramsey closer to the latter of those two categories as he seems to be getting plenty of minutes now he's back from injury.

I think the other sale option is someone who's sale price far exceeds the value brought to the squad. You'd have to argue almost any single player that you sold for 100m would fall into that bracket.

And we have to expect to have to do that, I just hope it isn't one of Martinez, Pau, Luiz, or Watkins. That spine of the team has to remain.

[duke313]

2 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

I think the other sale option is someone who's sale price far exceeds the value brought to the squad. You'd have to argue almost any single player that you sold for 100m would fall into that bracket.

And we have to expect to have to do that, I just hope it isn't one of Martinez, Pau, Luiz, or Watkins. That spine of the team has to remain.

We need to keep this intact.  The other players, while important are replaceable.

[ender4]

I just hope we can sell (or maybe even let go for free for some of them):

Hause

Chambers

Dendoncker

Sanson

Coutinho

Digne

Carlos

That must be £20-25 million a year in wages right there.  Maybe £28-30 million in wages if you include Lenglet and Zaniolo going back.

Edited February 23 by ender4

[CVByrne]

1 hour ago, villa4europe said:

i would say every manager at every club in the PL could state that headline

even city had to cash in on palmer

we probably do have to sell, the "drama" is the nonsense that we have to sell a crown jewell

City sold lots of players as did Liverpool in summer. 

[paul514]

I made a post on the transfer thread last night about who I would sign and sell but put a full FFP breakdown on it if anyone wants to understand the situation a bit better

[CVByrne]

1 hour ago, allani said:

Isn't the challenge still going to be that he wants to be playing every week?  Emery wanted him in the squad this season (and gave him minutes in the pre-season matches) but he chose to move away.  Has he done enough to prove that he's going to be in our starting XI next season?  Would he be happy to be on the bench?  I suspect he's probably gone from being a squad player to being in the match day squad - but is that enough for him?  He's still got some seriously good players to jump ahead of to get a significant amount of playing time each week (Ramsey and Buendia).  Our home grown position hasn't changed significantly from this season to next (as far as I can think) so why would it suddenly be so much more urgent?

Question can be put to any player leaving a Championship club and joining a top PL side. You have to back yourself at some point. 

[allani]

1 hour ago, MrBlack said:

I think the other sale option is someone who's sale price far exceeds the value brought to the squad. You'd have to argue almost any single player that you sold for 100m would fall into that bracket.

And we have to expect to have to do that, I just hope it isn't one of Martinez, Pau, Luiz, or Watkins. That spine of the team has to remain.

I'm not sure that outside of Emi, Pau, Luiz and Ollie we have any players that we could sell for £100m.  

But seriously, I think you are right with the general point that every player has his value (even those four) and if another club are willing to exceed that then we'd be stupid not to at least consider it.  I am confident that Monchi and his team would (a) already know about and (b) be able to talk to, a large number of potential replacements.  So whilst I do think it would take a genuinely ridiculous bid to tempt us into selling any of our key players - I'm also confident that we've already got a list of potential replacements for everyone in the squad so that we can try and either minimise the impact of losing a key player or even capitalise on it and strengthen the team further.

So I'm more confident that we won't lose a star player but also more confident that if we did we wouldn't be in a worse place (or at least wouldn't be for very long).