Ollie Watkins

[sparrow1988]

8 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

3 more goals?? There is no chance on earth that is accurate if tahts the acse any villa fan who watched us can see watkins missed more than 3 "goal opportunities" last season!

 

Yes, but as I said, he also scored goals that he shouldn't have (e.g. Brighton at home). A goal like that would level out the stats against the chances he's missed. As I said in my edited answer to your post. He missed 10 big chances. Those 10 big chances wouldn't have had an xG of 1.0, more likely between 0.3 - 0.7 if you look at the picture below. So take an average of 0.5 xG per chance and those 10 big chances add up to 5 xG, now we're a lot closer to the 3 goals that the stat suggests. 

Again that Brighton goal had an xG of 0.1 or so. That improves his goal to xG balance.

Edited August 1, 2022 by sparrow1988

[a m ole]

Every fan thinks their strikers miss loads of chances, because they get loads of chances. Even the best ones. It’s confirmation/familiarity bias.

Yes it would be nice to have better, but better is the best strikers in the league. He’s not a weak link when in form.

[nick76]

1 minute ago, lexicon said:

Regressing season on season means that he regressed at least twice, so it requires playing 3 seasons. You cannot regress in your first season in a league because you are setting a bar.

You learn something new every day! Thanks

2 minutes ago, lexicon said:

I have no idea what your life is like, but for us mere mortals, things don't always work out and it's not always 100% our fault. For those of us who don't live a life of constant unbridled success and fortune, we have what are called 'mitigating circumstances', which impact our lives or career in a negative way. Example: A: 'Why didn't he win the marathon?' B: 'He lost both his legs when somebody ran him over on the pavement' A: 'Oh, OK'

Why go to an extreme of being run over.  He had a kid, which every other household (and footballer by the way) has and he’s fortunate enough to have a life to get support and while it may have a short term impact as adjustments are made which everybody understands, not the duration it’s affected him.  If my wife had a baby and my work performance dipped for a year I’d expect to be questioned about it and I’m a mere mortal, not an elite athlete that has resources and time, unlike to rest of us to get support.

9 minutes ago, lexicon said:

Yes, it's called form - it generally goes up and down unless you're an elite player in an elite team. He's neither an elite player, nor in an elite team and those expectations should not be placed on him. In any case, he scored 14 league goals in a worse team two years ago.

Form going down for a year.  We don’t know if the first season was a one off or last season was a one off.  We maybe not an elite team or he’s an elite player but we are supposed to be one of the top ten teams in the top league in the world…so while not elite it’s very close to the pinnacle of playing football, so expectations like that should be placed on him like that.  Additionally as you pointed out he’s played for England who recently played in a final of a major tournament, so T the elite level.

13 minutes ago, lexicon said:

I agree. Cheer him on, enjoy it and be realistic about what to expect from a player of his level. 

I agree, I will cheer him on and I am being realistic that he’s not delivering for the level we are playing at. He’s underperforming and he needs to sort it out as I assume Gerrard will replace him if he doesn’t improve.

[villa4europe]

5 minutes ago, Risso said:

Since when did penalties stop being as important as other goals? What a rubbish, highly selective stat.

I kind of understand that 

If Liverpool win 10 more penalties than villa and salah scores all 10 and finishes 10 goals ahead of Watkins then using those 10 goals as a stick to beat Watkins with is a bit harsh, same if we win the same amount of penalties but coutinho is our penalty take and not Watkins

it's not necessarily his fault we don't win as many penalties or it's not him that scores them 

Now take out Watkins and use Son as the example to compare with salah for the golden boot last season... Of course its more impressive that son scored twenty whatever it was non penalty goals

[nick76]

1 minute ago, a m ole said:

Every fan thinks their strikers miss loads of chances, because they get loads of chances. Even the best ones. It’s confirmation/familiarity bias.

Yes it would be nice to have better, but better is the best strikers in the league. He’s not a weak link when in form.

He just hasn’t been in form for a year, that’s the problem!

[Rolta]

7 minutes ago, nick76 said:

He just hasn’t been in form for a year, that’s the problem!

This is your opinion. Blaming him having a kid for his loss of form, which is your opinion, is also just your opinion. It's pre season and people need to chill out a bit on this board. 

Edited August 1, 2022 by Rolta

[lexicon]

6 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

The stats must be wrong because sparrows point was watkins should have scored 3 more goals than he did which is wrong we can all see that. He missed more than 3 chances last season.

I hope we see the ollie of 1st season not 2nd as he was crap. 

Every shot isn't expected to go in and xG basically weights chances by difficulty - open goal = 1.00 xG and a very difficult chance could be 0.10 or something like that. It's more complicated than you think it is. 

[lexicon]

8 minutes ago, nick76 said:

You learn something new every day! Thanks

Why go to an extreme of being run over.  He had a kid, which every other household (and footballer by the way) has and he’s fortunate enough to have a life to get support and while it may have a short term impact as adjustments are made which everybody understands, not the duration it’s affected him.  If my wife had a baby and my work performance dipped for a year I’d expect to be questioned about it and I’m a mere mortal, not an elite athlete that has resources and time, unlike to rest of us to get support.

Form going down for a year.  We don’t know if the first season was a one off or last season was a one off.  We maybe not an elite team or he’s an elite player but we are supposed to be one of the top ten teams in the top league in the world…so while not elite it’s very close to the pinnacle of playing football, so expectations like that should be placed on him like that.  Additionally as you pointed out he’s played for England who recently played in a final of a major tournament, so T the elite level.

I agree, I will cheer him on and I am being realistic that he’s not delivering for the level we are playing at. He’s underperforming and he needs to sort it out as I assume Gerrard will replace him if he doesn’t improve.

 

Nick, it's not a case of 14 to 0 league goals, it's 14 to 11 over the course of the season. Have you never had work years that were less productive than others? 

And to your point about being top ten, he got the 7th most goals as a striker last season - which fits, doesn't it? 

He underperformed a bit last season (again, 14 vs. 11 league goals) but there were mitigating circumstances, as we've discussed. This is a fresh season and will hopefully be one without as many external influences. 

[nick76]

5 minutes ago, Rolta said:

This is your opinion. Blaming him having a kid for his loss of form, which is your opinion, is also just your opinion. It's pre season and people need to chill out a bit on this board. 

I never blamed him for having a kid affecting his form, that’s an excuse being rolled out for his poor form which I’m replying to.  I personally don’t think it’s anything to do with his form, I think people are just adding that to defend his form.

plus it not just preseason he’s been poor, it’s been a year so during a transfer window people speculate whether we should bring in another striker because over a long period our current starting striker has been struggling for a long time.

[nick76]

3 minutes ago, lexicon said:

Nick, it's not a case of 14 to 0 league goals, it's 14 to 11 over the course of the season. Have you never had work years that were less productive than others? 

Did I say it was only about goals? No, it’s his all around play including goals, he’s not been the same player last season.

5 minutes ago, lexicon said:

He underperformed a bit last season (again, 14 vs. 11 league goals) but there were mitigating circumstances, as we've discussed.

Some of those circumstances I don’t agree are actual reasons, they are reasons people believe could be without any justification.  People assuming having a baby had affected him but that’s pure speculation.

9 minutes ago, lexicon said:

This is a fresh season and will hopefully be one without as many external influences. 

There is always going to be external influences, doesn’t matter how many it’s how he deals with them.   He needs a good season, we need him to have a good season.

[Dodgyknees]

I believe in Ollie. 15 league goals incoming

[Demitri_C]

19 minutes ago, lexicon said:

Every shot isn't expected to go in and xG basically weights chances by difficulty - open goal = 1.00 xG and a very difficult chance could be 0.10 or something like that. It's more complicated than you think it is. 

Yep it really is!

[Vive_La_Villa]

11 Premier League goals for a player not in form for a season is pretty impressive.

[Rolta]

8 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

11 Premier League goals for a player not in form for a season is pretty impressive.

Especially considering we lost our chief creative player, by far our best player, and highest assist maker with 12 assists.

[lexicon]

38 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Did I say it was only about goals? No, it’s his all around play including goals, he’s not been the same player last season.

Some of those circumstances I don’t agree are actual reasons, they are reasons people believe could be without any justification.  People assuming having a baby had affected him but that’s pure speculation.

There is always going to be external influences, doesn’t matter how many it’s how he deals with them.   He needs a good season, we need him to have a good season.

Goals are generally what strikers should be judged on IMO - it's surely their most important metric.

You might not agree with the reasons but I think it's strange to discount them. At an elite level, even relatively small differences are important and can have effects on form and performance - let alone changes in management and lifestyle. Even then, he only dropped 3 league goals. 

 

 

Edited August 1, 2022 by lexicon

[nick76]

2 minutes ago, lexicon said:

Goals are generally what strikers should be judged on IMO - it's surely their most important metric.

You might not agree with them but I think it's strange to discount them. At an elite level, even relatively small differences are important and can have effects on form and performance - let alone changes in management and lifestyle. Even then, he only dropped 3 league goals. 

 

 

I never discounted them, I just said it wasn’t the only indicator.  If that was the only indicator I would note it but not have the concern I have about him.  As mentioned it’s more than just his goals it’s his all around play including his goals that’s the problem.

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

16 minutes ago, Rolta said:

Especially considering we lost our chief creative player, by far our best player, and highest assist maker with 12 assists.

This is a fair point. I’ve seen fans say Grealish made him look better than he is but he only scored 3 more with him in the team!

[nick76]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

This is a fair point. I’ve seen fans say Grealish made him look better than he is but he only scored 3 more with him in the team!

But Grealish was injured for a significant time and 3 goals on 11 goals is an extra 25%+ goals even if you discount Jacks injury

[Rolta]

4 minutes ago, nick76 said:

But Grealish was injured for a significant time and 3 goals on 11 goals is an extra 25%+ goals even if you discount Jacks injury

Grealish got 12 assists in that season. That's hardly a player who made no impact. Watkins also had no striker competition that season too, but he had Ings last season, vastly reducing his time/being the main focus up front.

Is this thread going to be your new Davis thread?

Edited August 1, 2022 by Rolta

[Vive_La_Villa]

I get the frustrations with Ollie. He’s hold up play is not good enough at times and it’s the same with his decision making. However I don’t think improving on him is a priority. He is good enough for where we are at this time. It is a big season for him though.