Summer Transfers Window 2020

[Dave-R]

1 minute ago, SeanVilla said:

Fair enough, I'm never gonna convince you and you won't convince me. 

 

[Mat Kendrick's Dentist]

11 minutes ago, SeanVilla said:

Fair enough, I'm never gonna convince you and you won't convince me. I'd rather play the way we had the 4th best defence in the league and improve our attack (in the transfer window) than play the way we did at the start and improve our defence to try combat the ridiculous amount of shots we were conceding per game. If you are keen to strengthen a decent amount at the back, I think you may be disappointed come the start of the season. 

The ideal is somewhere in between. When you consider we have an absolutely exceptional player in Jack Grealish, and we still stumbled to 35 points, you see that many positions need to be improved upon. I agree with Philosopher in that we currently have 5 good players who have enough quality to be in a good PL side. I don't think we'll solve all of the other positions in one window, but I hope we improve as much as possible, including in defence.

[MaVilla]

I know the window is open until Oct but we critically need some key players in before the start of the season.

If we don't sign 2-3 key players before the season starts, and we end up struggling early on and are towards the bottom after 3- 4 games, will make it even harder to attract key players.

I was really hoping we would have a couple of signings by the end of this week.

Hopefully the big week will be next week....(or starting tomorrow)

 

[LondonLax]

I can’t see us making wholesale changes like last summer. Sure you can say we could improve our defence and long term that will be a goal but I don’t think it will be a target for this summer. 

Personally I expect we will sign maybe 3 or 4 players, adding to last seasons squad rather than overhauling it. I expect most of that will be in the attacking positions with perhaps a new keeper included depending on how they feel about Heaton. 

That should be enough to move us forward and further up the table. 

The current side is better than the one we started last season with, simply because they have a year of experience under their belt and have now jelled with each other. 

Even if we signed no one I would expect a better campaign this year than last because of that so with just a few key signings we should really be able to push on. 

[Philosopher]

6 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

Eventually we will try and improve in lots of positions. 

But for me, I was talking about priority for this summer and IMO that has to be out wide and up front. 

As we continue to improve and progress I agree, there are others who need to be improved upon. 

I half agree. We need to keep Jack for another season. To do that we need to A show ambition and B move him to the centre. You won't really show ambition by signing defenders. So two wingers and one striker are required minimum. We were told 4 to 5 players. So to me thats 3 attackers and two defenders. I would prioritise the fullbacks as that is where the biggest improvement can be made. And fullbacks are part of the attack now so it would help the attack also. Then I would spend another 100mill next summer on a striker and a centre back, plus one other.

[Mat Kendrick's Dentist]

13 minutes ago, sparrow1988 said:

Defence is more of a structural issue although better individauls obviously help. Improvements in defence are a lot easier to achieve with a change in system as we saw post lockdown. We conceded the most shots on target per game before the break (5.64) and the third fewest on target per game (2.60) after lockdown. Same individuals - better defence through a system change.

Improvements in attack are more difficult to achieve through systematic changes as higher quality players are required to break down defences. I think that is the reason that some people think our attack needs improving before our defence.

But by your own metrics, we had a far better attack before lockdown than after (with the same personnel)!

I think we need to improve offensively and defensively, but obviously there's only so much that can be done in one window

[DCJonah]

@Mat Kendrick's Dentist

Just worked it out. 

Expected goals 10 games before lockdown 1.04

Expected goals final 10 games after lockdown 1.02

Wow what a massive difference. We clearly ruined our attacking threat to get men behind the ball. 

[SeanVilla]

1 minute ago, sparrow1988 said:

Defence is more of a structural issue although better individauls obviously help. Improvements in defence are a lot easier to achieve with a change in system as we saw post lockdown. We conceded the most shots on target per game before the break (5.64) and the third fewest on target per game (2.60) after lockdown. Same individuals - better defence through a system change.

Improvements in attack are more difficult to achieve through systematic changes as higher quality players are required to break down defences. I think that is the reason that some people think our attack needs improving before our defence.

Well put. I'd also like to add the fact that 1 of our fit Strikers has scored 1 goal since arriving in Jan, the other hasn't scored since 2017. In addition, although I love Trez for the important goals he scored, Him and El Ghazi are not close to being good enough to be starting a Premier League game. Vital we improve those positions   

[Mat Kendrick's Dentist]

12 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

@Mat Kendrick's Dentist

Just worked it out. 

Expected goals 10 games before lockdown 1.04

Expected goals final 10 games after lockdown 1.02

Wow what a massive difference. We clearly ruined our attacking threat to get men behind the ball. 

We were terrible going forward and at the back immediately before lockdown. We had gone more defensive with 5 at the back after getting battered by Watford. Anyway, we've both given our views so no need to keep going around in circles

[SeanVilla]

4 minutes ago, Mat Kendrick's Dentist said:

We were terrible going forward and at the back immediately before lockdown. We had gone more defensive with 5 at the back after getting battered by Watford. Anyway, we've both given our views so no need to keep going around in circles

Last point I promise. Perhaps the big dip in xG post Jan shows the impact Wesley has? I rate him. Could easily sign better if we throw some money at it (i.e. Edouard), but I do think he's underrated 

Edited August 27, 2020 by SeanVilla

[sparrow1988]

12 minutes ago, Mat Kendrick's Dentist said:

But by your own metrics, we had a far better attack before lockdown than after (with the same personnel)!

I think we need to improve offensively and defensively, but obviously there's only so much that can be done in one window

I made no mention of metrics for the attack, they were both for the defence. I've edited the post for clarity.

I agree with the second part of your post, but in my opinion attack is more of a priority because I think defence can be improved more easily through the systematic changes but improvements in attack are more reliant on the individuals.

Also improving the attack with players who keep the ball better, win the ball back quicker and create more chances indirectly improves the defensive side of the team as they don't have as much to do. That would in turn allow the system to be altered slightly to become more attacking while not having such a negative effect on the defence. All purely theoretical of course.

Edited August 27, 2020 by sparrow1988

[Mat Kendrick's Dentist]

10 minutes ago, SeanVilla said:

Last point I promise. Perhaps the big dip in xG post Jan shows the impact Wesley has? I rate him. Could easily sign better if we throw some money at it (i.e. Edouard), but I do think he's underrated 

We were actually on a very poor run before his injury IIRC, with terrible performances against Sheff Utd, Watford, and Southampton. I really think we need better than Wes. He tries hard, but had far more poor games than good last season, and showed no signs of improving (no goals in 12 pre-Burnley). I'm not writing him off, and I'd love for him to come good, but I don't see it. I would love Edouard, and hopefully with Celtic out of the CL we can nab him

[Philosopher]

25 minutes ago, nepal_villan said:

You are fast forwarding to a top 6 side. Let's start by safely avoiding relegation. 

Already did that, now we need to be looking at mid table.

[Philosopher]

16 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

@Mat Kendrick's Dentist

Just worked it out. 

Expected goals 10 games before lockdown 1.04

Expected goals final 10 games after lockdown 1.02

Wow what a massive difference. We clearly ruined our attacking threat to get men behind the ball. 

someone already came back with 1.72 exg pre lockdown and 1.04 post. Who is RIGHT?

[Mat Kendrick's Dentist]

12 minutes ago, sparrow1988 said:

I made no mention of metrics for the attack, they were both for the defence. I've edited the post for clarity.

I agree with the second part of your post, but in my opinion attack is more of a priority because I think defence can be improved more easily through the systematic changes but improvements in attack are more reliant on the individuals. Also improving the attack with players who keep the ball better, win the ball back quicker and create more chances indirectly improves the defensive side of the team as they don't have as much to do.

Sorry for the confusion. I just meant that your metrics showed evidence of our defence improving post-lockdown, while the reverse metrics can be used to show that our attack worsened as the season progressed. In other words, with largely the same personnel, we were creating more chances, and scoring more goals earlier in the season. But we were leaking so many goals that we had to set up more defensively, which in turn made us less potent in attack.

In any case, I totally agree that a good striker and an improvement on AEG/Trez is paramount. But I also hope we have enough in the kitty for some defensive reinforcements, as over the course of last season, we conceded a farcical amount of goals, and I don't want to bet the farm on our performances in the last few games of last season (against sides with little to play for)

[Mat Kendrick's Dentist]

13 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

someone already came back with 1.72 exg pre lockdown and 1.04 post. Who is RIGHT?

1.72 was the first 10 games of the season, 1.22 was pre-lockdown overall, 1.04 was the 10 games pre-lockdown, 0.7 was post-lockdown

[sparrow1988]

Just now, Mat Kendrick's Dentist said:

Sorry for the confusion. I just meant that your metrics showed evidence of our defence improving post-lockdown, while the reverse metrics can be used to show that our attack worsened as the season progressed. In other words, with largely the same personnel, we were creating more chances, and scoring more goals earlier in the season. But we were leaking so many goals that we had to set up more defensively, which in turn made us less potent in attack.

In any case, I totally agree that a good striker and an improvement on AEG/Trez is paramount. But I also hope we have enough in the kitty for some defensive reinforcements, as over the course of last season, we conceded a farcical amount of goals, and I don't want to bet the farm on our performances in the last few games of last season (against sides with little to play for)

Did you do that this season?

[DCJonah]

4 minutes ago, Philosopher said:

someone already came back with 1.72 exg pre lockdown and 1.04 post. Who is RIGHT?

1.72 was our first 10 games of the season. When everyone was fit and riding the promotion high. 

Our attacking play was not suddenly stopped after lockdown, we had been poor going forward months previously. 

[SeanVilla]

1 minute ago, Mat Kendrick's Dentist said:

We were actually on a very poor run before his injury IIRC, with terrible performances against Sheff Utd, Watford, and Southampton. I really think we need better than Wes. He tries hard, but had far more poor games than good last season, and showed no signs of improving (no goals in 12 pre-Burnley). I'm not writing him off, and I'd love for him to come good, but I don't see it. I would love Edouard, and hopefully with Celtic out of the CL we can nab him

Agreed, we need better but he's much better than what we have right now. And I think if he'd have got 10 goals in a full season for us as projected, would have been a great return from a 22/23 year old coming from the Belgium league. I also think Edouard should be our number one target. Personally, I'd like to see us overpay to get these players that realistically we're not good enough to get right now (Rashica, Edouard both want European football). It's all well and good being sensible and on paying what a player is worth, but maybe at £30mill, Edouard goes to Leicester. At £40mill, maybe he comes here. Just an example 

[Mat Kendrick's Dentist]

10 minutes ago, sparrow1988 said:

Did you do that this season?

My blood pressure was high enough without