HanoiVillan Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Stevo985 said: I think maybe they’ve finally realised how they **** it up twice already by opening up too soon so they’re actually going to do it right this time Yes, but I don't think particularly feel happy about this glacial reopening. Broadly, the crisis has gone through three distinct phases: In the first phase, both politicians and public health people blithely ignored the warning signs from China, then the public health people became concerned (too late, but still faster than the politicians) and then we went into lockdown and a gradual reopening; In the second phase, the public health people correctly warned of opening up too fast, and politicians and media completely ignored them and did so anyway, creating a rolling wave that led to various restrictions and ultimately the new year lockdown; In the third phase, the chastened politicians have completely given up control of the timetable to public health, who want to reopen as slowly as possible so that they can measure every independent variable and perform as well as possible on the metric that matters most to them (deaths from covid). Obviously the massive difference between the second phase and the third phase is the rapid ramp-up of vaccines. The problem is that the grinding slowness of this planned reopening is based on negative assumptions about the efficacy of vaccines in slowing transmission, and a determination to have as many separate stages as possible in order to generate lots of clean data, but in the meantime people's health is worsening among lots of other metrics, from cancelled appointments to 'lockdown weight' (still can't play sport outside for 8 more days!) to mental health problems. But those aren't the metrics we're measuring, so we're not going to consider those. Edited March 21, 2021 by HanoiVillan 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 21, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 21, 2021 41 minutes ago, Ingram85 said: You will get back to your egg and chips at Dodgy Daves cafe in costa del bumhole soon enough. Never never ever have the egg there. I did that once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted March 21, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 21, 2021 So a runny egg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) 46 minutes ago, bickster said: There's plenty of places to go for a holiday in this country as long as all the small heathens stick to Weston-Super-Mare we'll be OK I agree, but prices are **** mental for this summer in the UK. Triple last year (which was already expensive). I really am torn on it. I want to take the family away, but don’t agree with paying £1000 for accommodation that was £300 last year. Then all the other stuff like fuel, food, drinks, days out, kennels for the dog. A few days at the great British seaside will cost a fortune. Edited March 21, 2021 by Genie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Genie said: I agree, but prices are **** mental for this summer in the UK. Triple last year (which was already expensive). Yes that is the problem on top of the fact a lot of places are going to be absolutely rammed which is my idea of hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 14 hours ago, Xela said: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56467813 Way to piss on people's chips. It just feels like we are just cowering to this virus now. If every 'vulnerable' person has been vaccinated by summer then i don't see the problem in people going away. The average age of people dying in the UK with Covid is over 80 (based on the last figures I could find). The higher risk category is 60 plus. Anyone below that then its a negligible risk. Yes, there will be odd instances but you could say the same about any virus/illness. The virus isn't going to disappear, we need to learn to live with it by having vaccinations and getting on with life, not banning holidays and having repeated lockdowns. Sorry for the gripe, just a bit fed up. 100%. People will not comply for much longer, if after 18 months after the initial lockdown, they're still stuck, even with a nearly 100% vaccinated population (by that point) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Daughters school year group closed tomorrow due to a confirmed case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 On a related topic, what about other foreign travel? Over 18 months since I've really able to get home; will that extend into next year now? Millions of people across the world have the same issue. Again, understandable at the start, or a few months in, but after 18 months? Insanity. And it feels like people are just nodding their heads and saying it's reasonable. (not aimed at anyone on here) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy7211 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: On a related topic, what about other foreign travel? Over 18 months since I've really able to get home; will that extend into next year now? Millions of people across the world have the same issue. Again, understandable at the start, or a few months in, but after 18 months? Insanity. And it feels like people are just nodding their heads and saying it's reasonable. (not aimed at anyone on here) It's really harsh that you can't get back, but the only reason I can see why people are agreeing with it is because of the concern around introducing further mutations into the country. It's very much after the horse has bolted to a larger extent, however it's the only reasonable excuse in my opinion. I'm shielding from my family and that's bad enough, but to be stuck in another country would break my heart, so you have my sympathy. The mutation the government are worried about most I believe is the SA variant. It accounts for 5% of all cases in France already, and the early data is showing that AZ vaccine doesn't offer much protection at all against mild and moderate illness. Protection against more severe illness is unknown. If that took hold here the vaccination program that we're all cheering on (and rightly so) may count for very little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 21, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 21, 2021 One of the reasons there are surges in Europe right now is that the Kent variant is spreading and becoming the dominant strain in Europe. It probably got there via all the Brits flying out on holiday late last summer through the travel corridors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ingram85 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) It’s almost like it’s a virus that spreads from person to person isn’t it Maybe if we restrict people from travelling around the world it can be contained better and dealt with better. Imagine having a deadly virus and travelling around the world spreading it and letting it mutate potentially undoing the hard work and potentially reducing the effectiveness of the vaccines. unless it’s a family emergency, don’t travel abroad. This ain’t difficult to understand. Edited March 21, 2021 by Ingram85 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Ingram85 said: It’s almost like it’s a virus that spreads from person to person isn’t it Maybe if we restrict people from travelling around the world it can be contained better and dealt with better. Imagine having a deadly virus and travelling around the world spreading it and letting it mutate potentially undoing the hard work and potentially reducing the effectiveness of the vaccines. unless it’s a family emergency, don’t travel abroad. This ain’t difficult to understand. Easy to say unless you're in the position. My parents are nearly 70 and i feel like I've lost some key time with them, yet we have no end date on the horizon, over 12 months in with the experts saying that even this summer is too soon, and people are like 'yeah that seems reasonable'. That's scaremongering imo and keeping people locked down beyond that point will tip a breaking point I fear. Edited March 21, 2021 by StefanAVFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davkaus Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) What an incredibly patronising post. Nobody is claming it's difficult to understand, rather, that it's somewhat more difficult to justify. But keep nodding your head and do as you're told, citizen. Keep an eye out of the window in case you need to call the rozzers on youur neighbours. Edited March 21, 2021 by Davkaus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) 59 minutes ago, sidcow said: One of the reasons there are surges in Europe right now is that the Kent variant is spreading and becoming the dominant strain in Europe. It probably got there via all the Brits flying out on holiday late last summer through the travel corridors. It's not necessarily a given that the Kent virus actually began in the UK though. We do more genetic analysis on covid samples than the rest of the world put together so we were always more likely to spot it first. South Africa is another world leader in gene sequencing, which is again why theres a SA variant. In some ways both countries are being punished for providing a valuable service to the world... Edit: just for clarity, what I mean is by that is that the Kent strain didn't necessarily get spread to Europe from the UK (although it certainly got established here before Europe). Edited March 21, 2021 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) You'd hope things will look very different in 3-4 months time. Vaccinations across Europe should hopefully be where we are at now in terms of % of populations having had at least a first jab. Infection rates should also be well down into the low double figures per 100k. You only need to look at where we (UK) were in January to where we are now to see how quickly things can change. I'd be surprised if we were not allowed to travel abroad to a lot of countries by July all be it with restrictions in terms of having to have either had the vaccination and/or been recently tested. Edited March 21, 2021 by markavfc40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 minute ago, markavfc40 said: Id be surprised if we were not allowed to travel abroad to a lot of countries by July all be it with restrictions in terms of having to have either had the vaccination and/or been recently tested. This is all I want. Vaccine proof or negative test means no restrictions. That we have public health officials making such wide statements about this summer being a write off is hugely irresponsible. What next? 2022 is off limits too? And that's ok? There is zero justify for hard measures into this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 21, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) Looks like France reported 70,00 + new cases there yesterday. We only did that a couple of times and that was right at the very height in December/January. Don't know if there was some reporting anomaly for that, but you would imagine their death rates are going to get scary in a few weeks. Edited March 21, 2021 by sidcow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 Also, looks like we did over 800,000 jabs yesterday, which is an incomprehensibly large number to me. I remember being skeptical we could do 100,000 in a single day at the start of the pandemic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ingram85 Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Davkaus said: What an incredibly patronising post. Nobody is claming it's difficult to understand, rather, that it's somewhat more difficult to justify. But keep nodding your head and do as you're told, citizen. Keep an eye out of the window in case you need to call the rozzers on youur neighbours. You call me patronising but then do the exact same lol. It’s not about nodding my head and doing what the government tell me to do, if you know me then you know I’d burn this government to the **** ground if I could. Instead of mouthing off realise what I do is about doing what I consider the right thing. You don’t NEED a holiday abroad, you can wait. If it’s safe to do so and when you are allowed then by all means travel. If Europe gets cases/deaths down and the vaccine rollout speeds on then great but if they don’t and it doesn’t make sense to travel then tough, you stay where you are. If you need to see family then you’ll have to travel, quarantine and stay with them or stay where you are and wait a bit longer. It’s not great, it’s not fair and it’s not nice but opening up international travel again so soon after getting this under control in spite of the bastards in charge (for the second time) is just asking for trouble and will potentially cause more people to die. Let’s get everywhere 75% vaccinated and then talk about flying abroad. Edited March 21, 2021 by Ingram85 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 21, 2021 Share Posted March 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ingram85 said: Let’s get everywhere 75% vaccinated and then talk about flying abroad. What's the basis behind this number, in particular? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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