Generic Virus Thread

[Jareth]

49 minutes ago, Awol said:

Everybody buying from China has had the same problem, they’re flogging garbage at top dollar prices - which is pretty necky of them all things considered. I doubt we knew weeks ago when ordering them that they wouldn’t work, and every state is desperately competing for stuff needed to try and protect their own people.

Paris cancelled an NHS order from a face mask manufacturer to keep them in France,  then the US gazumped a French order for PPE from the Far East. Germany blocked exports of med kit to Italy, and on it goes. 

Excuses. 

The first time this was floated, it was along the lines that some clever folks in Oxford had worked out how to test for antibodies. The following day, Hancock made the announcement that they were 'buying' millions of tests. I noted this when I heard the word 'buying' - it did not tally with the previous day's news - if anything it would mean we were buying them from our own people. So, if their first statement was true - and that is a huge IF - we know how to do it, and we certainly have the medical manufacturing in this country - so why are we shopping in China? F*** muppets. 

Edited April 3, 2020 by Jareth

[Chindie]

A colleague, in their mid-30s and otherwise to my knowledge healthy, got completely knocked off their feet by this. As in seriously unwell for nearly 3 weeks and still not back to fitness. Not quite at hospitalisation level but by all accounts still not at all well. I can certainly see why some people are ending up hospitalised, and worse, despite not being in the high risk bracket. It seems like it rolls the dice and you hope you're lucky.

[Jareth]

She had actually improved a few days ago. I'm not trespassing on grief here, but this virus is very serious, and our leaders are not leading. 

[snowychap]

27 minutes ago, Awol said:

It was caricatured slogan to represent the political response to a complex problem this pandemic has highlighted; pursuing competitive advantage in the economy to its logical conclusion leaves states  exposed in times of crisis.

As realists (in the academic sense) have always argued, when the chips are down the political unit of greatest importance is the state, what it can do internally and how it can leverage its power externally. 

The blunt truth of that is visible everywhere as governments of all types pursue the self-interest of their populations. That doesn’t rule out cooperation between states where it serves the interests of both, but in moments of crisis that national unit is the castle into which all governments (the ones responsible for protecting us) retreat. 

Not saying it’s good or bad, it’s just  what’s happening - and realists argue, will always happen.

Edit: Change in first line.

Pursuing anything to the nth degree causes problems and the same will go of trying to cover each and every single base internallly within cities, states or nations.

There's a great deal of self-fulfilling prophesy in this 'realism' as well as some reality in the notion of units of population having a natural tendency towards these things (turning inward, getting isolationist, &c.).

The point is that the 'state' is whatever you really choose to define it as. Is it England? Is it the UK? Is it New York or California or any other individual state or the USA and the federal government (hopefully but not always the case) acting on behalf of all of the states? It can be as big or as small as you wish it to be.

Within whatever boundaries are put up (state lines, borders between nation states, &c.), there is cooperation. To look at that cooperation as something different to cross border cooperation for any other reason than it's about politics (which can always be made bigger than the arbitrary boundaries already constructed) is to construct a narrative on what suits and what is (at present) rather than what could, should or may be.

We don't run the world on the notion of villages and their chiefs, or city-states and their respective leaders any more.

If this 'realism' were to win out on the back of this because election literature and glib but comfortable populist slogans like 'globalisation bad' abound and appeal then don't worry about a temporary collapse for each nation's economy - something much bigger and worse will be looming in to view.

Edited April 3, 2020 by snowychap
Lots of poor spelling

[Jareth]

On a lighter note

Depends on your needs...

[Jareth]

Realists - is quite the word isn't it? Almost means 'resigned'. Not going to cut the mustard at this present moment - realists, by definition believe in herd immunity.

 

And I'll give it a rest now. For a bit at least.

Edited April 3, 2020 by Jareth

[Awol]

6 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Excuses. 

The first time this was floated, it was along the lines that some clever folks in Oxford had worked out how to test for antibodies. The following day, Hancock made the announcement that they were 'buying' millions of tests. I noted this when I heard the word 'buying' - it did not tally with the previous day's news - if anything it would mean we were buying them from our own people. So, if their first statement was true - and that is a huge IF - we know how to do it, and we certainly have the medical manufacturing in this country - so why are we shopping in China? F*** muppets. 

Excuses, lol. Do you really think it’s as simple as Hancock picking up the phone and ordering an acme pandemic cure kit? 

The highly accurate, Oxford designed test is now being used by Porton Down (3,500 tests per week) to study the level of infection across the whole population, creating a reliable model to eventually plan an exit strategy from quarantine on good data.

It’s not a mass test for the wider population, which they clearly thought could be purchased from China. Seems not so it’s back to the drawing board. If crises were easy to fix they wouldn’t be crises, would they? 

 

 

[HanoiVillan]

32 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I read the other day about a country ending up purchasing loads of test kits that were infected with Corona virus !!  
I don’t think it was 1st April when I read this article 

I think that was us... 

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

Excuses, lol. Do you really think it’s as simple as Hancock picking up the phone and ordering an acme pandemic cure kit? 

The highly accurate, Oxford designed test is now being used by Porton Down (3,500 tests per week) to study the level of infection across the whole population, creating a reliable model to eventually plan an exit strategy from quarantine on good data.

It’s not a mass test for the wider population, which they clearly thought could be purchased from China. Seems not so it’s back to the drawing board. If crises were easy to fix they wouldn’t be crises, would they? 

 

 

I'm curious to know what it is our dear leaders actually have to do that makes you question your vote at the last election. (yes I know I said I was leaving). 

 

[Awol]

1 minute ago, Jareth said:

Realists - is quite the word isn't it? Almost means 'resigned'. Not going to cut the mustard at this present moment - realists, by definition believe in herd immunity.

No, that’s wrong. Realism in the academic international relations sense is different to its meaning in daily conversation. It’s about how states interact with each other. 

On your other point herd immunity is the only exit strategy, either through mass infection or vaccination. If you think there’s another way then global science needs you to call them ASAP.

[snowychap]

 

[Chindie]

3 minutes ago, snowychap said:

 

Shit, that quantum violin just gets smaller and more required as this crisis goes on.

[Jareth]

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

 herd immunity is the only exit strategy

Yeah that's sort of making me think you're a fan of Cummings. Sorry, I mean the PM. Let's agree to disagree, it's useful to have counter points on a forum.

[Awol]

9 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I'm curious to know what it is our dear leaders actually have to do that makes you question your vote at the last election. (yes I know I said I was leaving). 

 

Global pandemics don’t care how you voted at the last election, or which flavour of idiot is in government. The science stays the same, every government in every country will make mistakes and a lot less than you seem to think is under their control.

You’re viewing this thing as tribal politics and I’m not, that’s probably the main difference in outlook. 

[snowychap]

21 hours ago, snowychap said:

 

Independent:

Quote

She was convicted of an offence under the Coronavirus Act 2020 at North Tyneside Magistrates’ Court on Monday, despite not being present at the hearing.

...

Following concerns raised by legal professionals, the conviction is to be quashed and police admitted it “shouldn’t have happened”.

...

In response to questions from The Independent, the force said it had asked North Tyneside Magistrates’ Court for the case to be relisted and the conviction to be set aside.

...

Ms Dinou had been kept in police custody for two full days between her arrest on Saturday morning and the court hearing on Monday.

...more on

Edit: Apparently she refused to say anything between her arrest and the conviction hence her being detained for the two days and:

Quote

“Defendant refuses to identify herself, sent back to cells and proved in absence,” read a short official account of the hearing.

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by snowychap

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

You’re viewing this thing as tribal politics and I’m not

Ok hon

[Awol]

1 minute ago, Jareth said:

Yeah that's sort of making me think you're a fan of Cummings. Sorry, I mean the PM. Let's agree to disagree, it's useful to have counter points on a forum.

Happy to disagree but instead of snide pot shots, why not explain what the alternative to herd immunity is? You clearly think there is one so why not share? 

[chrisp65]

1 hour ago, snowychap said:

I don't see why this is laid at the door of 'globalisation'.

If anything, it would appear that the issues are that there isn't enough expertise in terms of manufacturing these kinds of tests across the world, the (natural but counterproductive and inherently daft) retreat to protectionism and the attempt to exercise power by those that have more of it (USA purchasing power as per an example already given).

Whilst one lesson to be learnt from this may well be more preparedness across the world, if other lessons are to further retreat in to isolationism, protectionism and more stringently applied borders and to accept the throwing about of weight by those that have it (rather than more international response & preparedness) then we should expect more lives to be lost or ruined because of that 'response' than the illness itself.

There is a point between globalisation and isolationism.

We can have friends and trade partners and exchange students and travel plans. But we can also grow sufficient food and have a manufacturing base and keep the population healthy enough to be of benefit to each other as a functioning society.

[chrisp65]

4 hours ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Stupid question time. 

Would be it a better solution to isolate those who are in risk groups, i.e. elderly, asthmatics, those with diabetes etc. then shutting down everything? If it's the risk groups that's the key in terms of avoiding hospitals to reach capacities, wouldn't everyone be better off if society went on as normal and at the same time build a herd immunity?  

[HanoiVillan]

11 minutes ago, Awol said:

Happy to disagree but instead of snide pot shots, why not explain what the alternative to herd immunity is? You clearly think there is one so why not share? 

Therapeutics seem to be being underplayed as a solution. There are diseases for which we have neither herd immunity nor a vaccine (HIV is an obvious example) but which can be effectively suppressed by pharmacological intervention. Obviously they're far from a perfect solution - we don't even know what, if anything, works yet! - but they could theoretically be available before a vaccine is.