The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[StefanAVFC]

No deal it is then.

[Xela]

4 minutes ago, jackbauer24 said:

It seems incredible to me that anyone can look at the last ten years and think "do you know what, I'd call that a success" and vote for more of the same. More jaw-dropping is that it looks like being a healthy majority.

Boris. Trump. The world is done.

I don't think anyone would call the last 10 years a success, even the most ardent of blue. I think they see it as potentially being the lesser of two evils. 

We can continue with the shit we know or do we take a chance of something that could be better or potentially be shitter? Its a risk. 

The lack of any decent option is the main problem. 

[HanoiVillan]

Just now, markavfc40 said:

In 30 of the seats they reckon Tories will take from Labour their leads is apparently under 5%.

The most likely result has always been a Tory majority and if this poll is correct it seems they have won it by taking leave voting constituencies from Labour in the midlands and north. 

They haven't won anything yet mate. Not trying to be pernickety, just important not to give up.

[Dodgyknees]

Just now, markavfc40 said:

In 30 of the seats they reckon Tories will take from Labour their leads is apparently under 5%.

The most likely result has always been a Tory majority and if this poll is correct it seems they have won it by taking leave voting constituencies from Labour in the midlands and north. 

I'm just talking from experience, and we all know the way people think and act has changed, so maybe a pinch of salt. 

My experience of voters, through campaigning and being within political groups, is that most people don't switch on till the final 5-7 days of a campaign, and that's when we need to take a look at the momentum and feelings, although it's so hard to work things out when we have the BBC reframing everything to support the government, and then ignoring things which promote Labour - for example, #JewsForLavour, and more.

[StefanAVFC]

1 minute ago, Xela said:

We can continue with the shit we know or do we take a chance of something that could be better or potentially be shitter? Its a risk. 

We are a stupidly inconsistent nation then considering we voted for Brexit. 

[peterms]

Just put a tenner on Labour getting most seats.

Also bought a lottery ticket.

Surely one or the other must pay out?

[Xela]

6 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

We are a stupidly inconsistent nation then considering we voted for Brexit. 

Indeed.

[markavfc40]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

They haven't won anything yet mate. Not trying to be pernickety, just important not to give up.

Agreed. I did say if this poll is correct.

Labour need a game changer. The poll would have been conducted before their NHS/Tory trade deal with USA reveal today. Also I am not sure how much it factors in the 1 million new voter registrations over last few days over two thirds of which were by people aged 34 or under an age group likely to favour Labour.

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

Agreed. I did say if this poll is correct.

Labour need a game changer. The poll would have been conducted before their NHS/Tory trade deal with USA reveal today. Also I am not sure how much it factors in the 1 million new voter registrations over last few days over two thirds of which were by people aged 34 or under an age group likely to favour Labour.

Agree on all points.

The poll is as good as the data that went into it. It's probably worth remembering that UK polls have a pretty bad recent track record, not just in 2017 but in 2015 as well. Of course, that *could* mean that the result is even worse than we're fearing. But it's probably more likely that pollsters will miss the other way.

[Xela]

I can't see the tories winning a huge majority like has been predicted. I think it will be fairly similar to what we have now, perhaps a handful more blue seats. 

[bickster]

1. A week is long time in politics and we've got two of them left

2. Everyone is going nuts over this particular poll because it was the closest lst time. It was F***ing way off in 2015 and its very rare individul pollsters get it right two elections running

3. How many millions of people have only registered to vote in the last week? 3 million or so iirc

4. Even the Mekon thinks the polls are wrong, though he could just be saying that

[peterms]

12 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

I am not sure how much it factors in the 1 million new voter registrations over last few days over two thirds of which were by people aged 34 or under an age group likely to favour Labour.

I think they didn't do too well on this last time and have presumably tried to make adjustments to the model to account for this.

The adjustments are I assume based on theory?

I read 3m+ applications to register, about a third of whom were in fact already registered.  A big number.

Haven't yet seen a poll where they explicitly state they have modelled for how many old tories have died  Since they have a high likelihood of voting (before dying, I mean), this is a pretty crucial factor.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, peterms said:

I read 3m+ applications to register, about a third of whom were in fact already registered.  A big number.

Makes sense, my daughter was registered to vote in Bristol and here but is now registered to vote in London

[peterms]

Just now, bickster said:

Makes sense, my daughter was registered to vote in Bristol and here but is now registered to vote in London

I assumed it meant already registered in the place they were trying to register, rather than the legitimate dual registration you mention.

Either way, it should suppress the new registration excitement factor by 30-35%.

[markavfc40]

4 minutes ago, peterms said:

I assumed it meant already registered in the place they were trying to register, rather than the legitimate dual registration you mention.

Either way, it should suppress the new registration excitement factor by 30-35%.

There have been 3.85 million new registrations since election called. Even going with a third already being registered that is still over 2.5 million new registrations which is a lot.

[PompeyVillan]

The Conservatives didn't want this poll result as much as you may think. They've got some pretty shaky remainers in their midst, who won't fancy Boris's no deal roller coaster. They might not hold their nose and vote Labour, but they might lend the Lid Dems a vote.

It will also galvanise the tactical vote against them for more natural Lib Dem voters and remain Labour voters that have been swayed by the Lib Dems. It reinforces the message in the marginals that have been projected to go from red to blue, 'Vote Lib Dem, get Tories'.

There are lots of new voters, and I'm not sure whether the YouGov poll is able to factor in where these registrations are focused. Fck Boris and Momentum have been going to key marginals, knocking on people's doors and getting them to register to vote. Who knows whether that targeting will mean anything. 

There's still a few weeks left of the campaign. Boris will hide from public view for the rest of it I shall imagine. I'm sure this will give him some momentum. 

[PompeyVillan]

Also I'm reading that the polls are showing that Boris Johnson is in danger of losing his seat according to this poll. Wouldn't that be fking hilarious? 

[HanoiVillan]

24 minutes ago, PompeyVillan said:

The Conservatives didn't want this poll result as much as you may think.

As a general point, we may well be entering the stage of the election where it starts to be in everybody's interest to make out that it's competitive - Labour because they want to keep spirits up and don't want activists to give in, the Tories because they don't want to risk apathy and a poor turnout on election day, and the media because they have a structural bias towards making the race as interesting as possible.

[Davkaus]

"The US will ban any mention of climate change in a US-UK trade deal"

[Awol]

7 hours ago, Xela said:

I can't see the tories winning a huge majority like has been predicted. I think it will be fairly similar to what we have now, perhaps a handful more blue seats. 

Agreed. The poll doesn’t account for Labour’s not-so-secret weapon, massive postal vote fraud.