Popular Post allani Posted September 16, 2018 Popular Post Share Posted September 16, 2018 Bit bored whilst the kids are still asleep so I thought I would do some stats about our form over the past few months. First up - I was told a couple of matches ago to stop being so negative about our form against "poor" opposition this season "Bruce always does better against the top teams" I was told. Well last season we did the double over all three teams that were relegated (this season we have not beaten either of the teams that we have played that are currently in the relegation zone). Our record against the top teams, however, has actually been pretty shocking. I suppose the good news is that combining this season and last we have not lost at home to any team in the Top 10. Which is impressive. However, if you include the play-offs we have played 11 matches against Top 10 teams at home. We have W3 D8 L0. So whilst it is true that we are unbeaten we have still dropped 16 points in 11 matches. However, our away form is shocking (I have included Wembley in the stats as it isn't VP) and reads P13 W4 D0 L9!!!! Against Top 10 teams our records is 29 (17+12) points gained v 35 (8+27) points gained by our opponents - so we have a net loss of points against the top teams. Secondly - we are told that we shouldn't judge the team over the 6 or 7 matches of this season as it is a new team, we are re-building, etc, etc, etc. So I've looked into this too. This season we have P9 (including cup matches) and would have gained 13 points. Multiplied up over a 46 match season - our form this season would have us scoring 66 points which would see us finishing 12th based on the points totals last season. No real surprise given that we are currently 12th and the average position of the teams we have played (exc. lower division teams) is 13th. However, I have extended this back to the middle of March and the Wolves match (mainly because that was when I got a bit excited last season). Over that period we have played 22 matches and would have accumulated 31 points. Multiply that up for a 46 match season and we would finish up with 65 points. Good enough for.... yep 12th place. So our current league position is exactly our form position over the last 6 months. Time is not the issue. Rebuilding is not the issue. PS - Just in case anyone thinks that the stats will be skewed by the 3 extra matches against other promotion rivals last season - the average league position of our opponents over that 22 matches is.... 12th. All of which is "interesting" but really just suggests that our mid-table form is not just based on results at the start of this season but over the final third(ish) of last season too. I then went back to the fact that we scored 18 points against the Bottom 3 last season and yet this season have only gained 2 (from 1/3 of the matches). Several people (myself included) refused to get carried away by our "best start to a season since the 1960s" and highlighted that the fixture list had been incredibly kind to us and given us a string of "easy" early matches. So I have basically taken the current league position of the teams we have played so far this season and compared it directly to the results against the teams who occupied those positions at the end of last season. Obviously for this analysis I have dropped the cup matches. So the stats for this season are: P7 W2 D4 L1 - which gives us 10 points. Project that over the remainder of the season and we would finish up with 66 points and a finishing position of 12th. However, compare those figures with the comparison of the results from last season: P7 W6 D1 L0 - which gave us a total of 19 points. Project that over the remainder of the season and we would have finished up with a rather incredible 125 points. Automatic promotion sealed several months before the end of the season. So we are 9 points worse off this season compared to last in just 7 matches. Obviously there will be other "groups" of matches from last season where our form will have been disaster and so things will even out. But I think this does reinforce the concerns that many of us have been expressing this season. We got off to a seemingly "good" start because we had a string of easy fixtures. However, we have under-performed in those fixtures (and just imagine how much worse it would be if we hadn't grabbed three injury time goals!). What crisis? Well frankly this crisis! We are already in the position where our form in the next 39 matches needs to be better than our form last season. Even if we just match form from now on - those 9 fewer points would have seen us drop out of the play-off positions (74 points = 7th position last season). This is not a knee-jerk reaction of fickle fans who don't understand that a new team needs time to settle (as if we are the only team with new players this season). This is based on pretty much half a season's worth of results and our form / performances over last season and this season. No doubt some will argue that 7th is "there or thereabouts" (well maybe just Steve now) but that assumes that our form from now exactly matches last season. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted September 16, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted September 16, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted September 16, 2018 Author Share Posted September 16, 2018 I need to get out more. Or get a life. Or both!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted September 16, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted September 16, 2018 "So our current league position is exactly our form position over the last 6 months. Time is not the issue. Rebuilding is not the issue. PS - Just in case anyone thinks that the stats will be skewed by the 3 extra matches against other promotion rivals last season - the average league position of our opponents over that 22 matches is.... 12th. All of which is "interesting" but really just suggests that our mid-table form is not just based on results at the start of this season but over the final third(ish) of last season too." From disappearing after the Wolves result to now we've been poor, aside from the form the football has shown no signs of getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted September 16, 2018 Author Share Posted September 16, 2018 35 minutes ago, romavillan said: "So our current league position is exactly our form position over the last 6 months. Time is not the issue. Rebuilding is not the issue. PS - Just in case anyone thinks that the stats will be skewed by the 3 extra matches against other promotion rivals last season - the average league position of our opponents over that 22 matches is.... 12th. All of which is "interesting" but really just suggests that our mid-table form is not just based on results at the start of this season but over the final third(ish) of last season too." From disappearing after the Wolves result to now we've been poor, aside from the form the football has shown no signs of getting better. I think the point is that the times when the results have been good / performances have been good over the past 12 - 18 months have probably been the exception rather than the rule. The theory seemed to be that if we eliminated the poor spells then our good spells would see us challenge for promotion (after all we got within 90 minutes last season). However, instead our poor spells seem to be extending and the danger is that if we eliminate the good spells then we're suddenly mid-table at best, bottom half more likely and worse case in a run of relegation form. I don't think that it will be as bad as the latter so am happy to dismiss that. But if you eliminate the worst case then you also have to eliminate the best case. All of which means we are exactly where we should be. Bang average, mid-table. A few good results there, a few bad results thereabouts and a whole load of meh results in between. Which at least solves the riddle of Bruce's "there or thereabouts". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 What a pointless thread. If you’d have done the same at this point last season, you’d have likely concluded the same, but we finished 4th. Now this certainly isn’t a defence of Bruce, but a comment on how pointless this kind of stat manipulation is to determine, we’ll, anything really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted September 16, 2018 Author Share Posted September 16, 2018 (edited) Stats can prove most things I agree. But Bruce has said repeatedly that we will get better. It is too early in the season to judge. We didn't start well last season either. But this isn't about the start of the season. This is about our form over the last 6 months. Indeed 22 matches so 1 match short of half a season. Even if you add in that 1 extra match (Wolves) then our half season form (projected out to a full season) is 11th rather than 12th. That is a long way short of 4th. 15 points short of 4th to be precise. Edited September 16, 2018 by allani Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Albrighton Posted September 16, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted September 16, 2018 We have poor form and the stats show that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morley_crosses_to_Withe Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, allani said: Stats can prove most things I agree. But Bruce has said repeatedly that we will get better. It is too early in the season to judge. We didn't start well last season either. But this isn't about the start of the season. This is about our form over the last 6 months. Indeed 22 matches so 1 match short of half a season. Even if you add in that 1 extra match (Wolves) then our half season form (projected out to a full season) is 11th rather than 12th. That is a long way short of 4th. 15 points short of 4th to be precise. So pull the stats from the back end of the 16/17 season and the start of last season. Let’s see what they determined and how accurately they predicted our final finish of fourth place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted September 16, 2018 Author Share Posted September 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said: So pull the stats from the back end of the 16/17 season and the start of last season. Let’s see what they determined and how accurately they predicted our final finish of fourth place. If you take Bruce's entire tenure at Villa (P78, W34, D21, L23) and apply that across a full, single season you would get to 73 points. Which would have had us finishing either 7th or 8th last season depending on goal difference. Even accounting for the fact that the team was a mess (I'd argue that it is still a mess now - allbeit a different mess) when he arrived on that form we would still be 17 points off promotion. Also suggests that despite Bruce's assertation that we need more time, our form is going backwards rather than forwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holteend1982 Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 We've not beaten any of the sides in the relegation zone but nothings to say those teams down there now will be bottom at end of the season so it's not really comparable to beating last year's relegated sides. Again with just multiplying what we are currently on doesn't give the slightest out look to where we will finish, we had less points at this stage last season but finished 4th. One thing is for sure though, if we continue playing the way we have been throughout the season we will be lucky to finish top half, something needs to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 We had a fairly crappy start last season and got better- I am not sure if that is to be repeated this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted September 16, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted September 16, 2018 1 hour ago, The Fun Factory said: We had a fairly crappy start last season and got better- I am not sure if that is to be repeated this time though. The fact we're in this position of needing to catch up again is not great at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 No defence of Bruce but we have 3 more points than this stage last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted September 16, 2018 Share Posted September 16, 2018 It’s the games against Ipswich and Reading that are so frustrating. These teams look very poor and I can see them really struggling this season. Thats 4 crucial points dropped. Wigan and Blackburn have actually impressed me and I think they will both stay up this season. So difficult to compare them with the 3 terrible teams that got relegated last season. I enjoyed the OP though and appreciation the effort gone in to it. I love a good stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjaacckk91 Posted September 17, 2018 Share Posted September 17, 2018 Top post @allani. Enjoy reading stuff like this where there's been a bit of digging gone in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyrusr Posted September 17, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2018 On 16/09/2018 at 10:40, allani said: P7 W2 D4 L1 - which gives us 10 points. However, compare those figures with the comparison of the results from last season: P7 W6 D1 L0 - which gave us a total of 19 points. So we are 9 points worse off this season compared to last in just 7 matches. Which teams did you compare with which and have you done it as now? Always wary of that as form can play a significant factor in those stats, particularly early on in the season. I did it with the same teams, but replacing the best team respectively with the relegated ones, so Wigan=Barnsley; Blackburn=Burton Albion and Rotherham=Sunderland. I got last seasons as W5 D2 L0 and therefore 7 points worse off [apologies to the phone people - table will skew the screen I believe]: 2017/8 2018/9 Pts Diff Home Score Away Home Score Away Hull City 0–0 Aston Villa Hull City 1–3 Aston Villa +2 Aston Villa 3–1 Barnsley Aston Villa 3–2 Wigan Athletic 0 Ipswich Town 0–4 Aston Villa Ipswich Town 1–1 Aston Villa -2 Aston Villa 0–0 Brentford Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford 0 Aston Villa 3–0 Reading Aston Villa 1–1 Reading -2 Sheffield United 0-1 Aston Villa Sheffield United 4-1 Aston Villa -3 Burton Albion 0–4 Aston Villa Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Aston Villa -2 Total Points Difference -7 Agree entirely with the sentiment though, in comparison to the games last season against the same opponents, we are already behind far behind. I know there are arguments to say the relegated teams were dire last season, but actually its only the Blackburn result which is affected. Even then, over the over 6 games we are still 5 points down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 On 16/09/2018 at 22:36, Zatman said: No defence of Bruce but we have 3 more points than this stage last season But we'd played better team in terms of their final positions v current positions this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted September 18, 2018 Author Share Posted September 18, 2018 22 hours ago, cyrusr said: Which teams did you compare with which and have you done it as now? Always wary of that as form can play a significant factor in those stats, particularly early on in the season. I did it with the same teams, but replacing the best team respectively with the relegated ones, so Wigan=Barnsley; Blackburn=Burton Albion and Rotherham=Sunderland. I got last seasons as W5 D2 L0 and therefore 7 points worse off I used the current position of the team played this season (admittedly I did that based on the results after the weekend rather than the position when we played them) and then compared that with the corresponding match from last season. So Blackburn were / are 13th in the table so I compared the weekend's result (i.e. the away match against the team placed 13th) with the result of the Leeds Utd away match last season. I did this to try and base it on form rather than the side (as in Ipswich's result this season is better compared to Sunderland last season rather than Ipswich - who finished top half - last season). I'm interested to see the direct result comparison that you have done too (and agree that the only real option is to substitute the promoted teams for the relegated ones - in both directions). Either way it seems that this season is considerably worse than last season - despite all the claims that we'd made the best start for 50 seasons (which I think can now be completely dismissed as baloney based on the friendliest possible fixture list rather than the actual performance of the team). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted September 18, 2018 Share Posted September 18, 2018 24 minutes ago, allani said: But we'd played better team in terms of their final positions v current positions this season. That's a very strange stat to judge. Can only play what's scheduled in the fixtures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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