magnkarl Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The maga-crew is already saying this is all the dems pulling strings etc. zzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Ukraine claiming three jets downed this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 15/02/2024 at 16:38, Panto_Villan said: This might be what the Russian satellite is - a electronic warfare satellite with a nuclear power source, rather than a nuclear-armed satellite. That would certainly make more sense. Make of this what you will 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 24 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Ukraine claiming three jets downed this morning The designers at Raytheon certainly never envisioned Patriot being used as a mobile system to conduct air ambushes. Great work by the Ukrainians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Denmark donating all their artillery to Ukraine. If the US, Germany, France and the UK got up to a third of the level of GDP donated by the Baltic states and Scandinavia Ukraine would’ve already won this war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just now, magnkarl said: Denmark donating all their artillery to Ukraine. If the US, Germany, France and the UK got up to a third of the level of GDP donated by the Baltic states and Scandinavia Ukraine would’ve already won this war. It's a disgrace the European countries aren't doing more. Shouldn't be expecting the US to save the day all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, villa89 said: It's a disgrace the European countries aren't doing more. Shouldn't be expecting the US to save the day all the time. It’s not about saving the day, both the US and Canada are lagging so far behind most European states that it’s frightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 30 minutes ago, magnkarl said: Denmark donating all their artillery to Ukraine. If the US, Germany, France and the UK got up to a third of the level of GDP donated by the Baltic states and Scandinavia Ukraine would’ve already won this war. I'm more convinced then ever that the plan is still not to win it, keep feathering the throttle to drag it out. As Russia built up some momentum recently Ukraine will be given the kit to push them back a bit and keep the stalemate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 So it took Russians (claimed by AFU) 47.000 soldiers to take Avdiivka, a town of 32.000 people pre-war. Not only that, but 364 tanks, 5 fighter aircraft and 247 artillery systems. The losses per square meter for Russia in Avdiivka even surpasses that of Bakhmut where Wagner would force convicts to storm Ukrainian positions, just that this time normal Russian soldiers are doing the job? Sustainable? I don't really think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigel Posted February 19 VT Supporter Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, magnkarl said: So it took Russians (claimed by AFU) 47.000 soldiers to take Avdiivka, a town of 32.000 people pre-war. Not only that, but 364 tanks, 5 fighter aircraft and 247 artillery systems. The losses per square meter for Russia in Avdiivka even surpasses that of Bakhmut where Wagner would force convicts to storm Ukrainian positions, just that this time normal Russian soldiers are doing the job? Sustainable? I don't really think so. Problem is it doesnt have to be sustainable, just enough to overpower Ukraine, more so show everyone else they are winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, magnkarl said: Sustainable? I don't really think so. How many men have Ukraine left and how many more men can they recruit? The inaction of western countries has left them high and dry. They can't keep fighting for years and years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 14 minutes ago, villa89 said: How many men have Ukraine left and how many more men can they recruit? The inaction of western countries has left them high and dry. They can't keep fighting for years and years. Western countries are using Ukraine as a means to let Russia destroy itself. If it REALLY mattered “we’d” have thrown the kitchen sink at Russia and pushed them out in a matter of weeks at the start of the invasion. Now Russia are reported to be making gains I expect the West will raise the game and push Russia back… a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yep, that’s how I see it playing out, and it is what some of us were saying from the start. Why rush, it’s not our land, it’s not our economy, and it’s not our families. We can drip feed in to this war, keep a nice little earner going for the defence industry, refresh our own stocks, build up a huge iou within Ukraine, build up rights to the rebuilding of Ukraine, and let Russia bleed itself out for an extended period of time, AND we can learn something for free about how modern warfare is morphing with the use of all types of drones. It’s been pretty good for us so far. The only risk I can see, is at some point Ukraine will truly resent having been played by both sides, sufficient to do something we haven’t war gamed out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, villa89 said: How many men have Ukraine left and how many more men can they recruit? None. They are on bare bones and are struggling to recruit any new people. Everyone who was willing to fight is already involved. Everyone who refused from the start is hidden away and will never fight. Even if Russia lose 50,000 men, Ukraine can't even afford to lose 5000 men. Russia will just draft in more men on the outskirts of Russia or empty some more prisons to fill up with more men again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490 Quote Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line But almost two years into Russia's full-scale invasion, there's no flood of volunteers to the front line anymore. Most of those who wanted to fight are either dead, injured or still stuck at the front waiting to be relieved by new recruits. In the central town of Cherkasy, like elsewhere, finding them isn't easy now that the first burst of enthusiasm and energy has faded. Ukraine is exhausted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 (edited) 15 hours ago, ender4 said: None. They are on bare bones and are struggling to recruit any new people. Everyone who was willing to fight is already involved. Everyone who refused from the start is hidden away and will never fight. Even if Russia lose 50,000 men, Ukraine can't even afford to lose 5000 men. Russia will just draft in more men on the outskirts of Russia or empty some more prisons to fill up with more men again. I'm not sure if that is true. It's true that Ukraine is currently struggling with the voluntary recruitment, however it is completely false to say that they can't afford to lose 5000 men. As far as I gather they do lose 5000 men something like every 2-3 weeks, and continue to do so. The country had a pre-war population of something like 30-40 million people. It's not very hard to calculate that losing 200.000 (which is what most people think they've lost) men out of a pool of maybe 5-7 million fighting age males is still not 'bare bones'. They also have a very large contingent of women in their armed forces, which further increases that pool. They likely need to enforce harder mobilisation, which is what Zelensky has been mulling for quite some time. US intelligence yesterday put Russian losses at 10-12 times more than Ukrainian losses. At some point recruitment will have to come from Western Russia, it's where most people in Russia live. There's not an eternal amount of able-bodied men in the provinces to keep these losses going, and together with the Nalvanyi affair it'll destabilize Putin's rule in Western Russia further. Will it be enough to overthrow him? Likely not, but it'll put another burden on his continuation of this war. Demographics in Russia aren't very good for a long war either, with 1-2 million Russians of fighting age fleeing the country, 1-1.5 million lost in the war, a further several million needed for critical infrastructure and a population which have had several generations of population decline within the bracket that Putin gets his soldiers from. Interpret the withdrawal from Avdiivka how you will, but it's the same tactic NATO would use against Russia. It's served its purpose and expended so many Russian troops and equipment that it was no longer tenable to hold, so they've withdrawn to the heights further West, the same thing they did in Bakhmut. Trading land for troops and equipment is the only way to fight a country like Russia, or China, who doesn't give a hoot about their soldiers' lives. The issue for Ukraine is kit. As a country the UK, USA, Canada, France and everyone who's not in Scandinavia and Eastern Europe needs to wake the hell up. We're supposed to be the backbone of NATO, yet Scandinavia and in particular the Baltic states are currently carrying this pretty much alone. The US have given 0.19% of their defense budget last year to Ukraine. We're not much better. Edited February 20 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted February 20 Moderator Share Posted February 20 18 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Why rush, it’s not our land, it’s not our economy, and it’s not our families. We can drip feed in to this war, keep a nice little earner going for the defence industry, refresh our own stocks, build up a huge iou within Ukraine, build up rights to the rebuilding of Ukraine, and let Russia bleed itself out for an extended period of time, AND we can learn something for free about how modern warfare is morphing with the use of all types of drones. It’s been pretty good for us so far. The only risk I can see, is at some point Ukraine will truly resent having been played by both sides, sufficient to do something we haven’t war gamed out. ”it’s not our economy”. How’s your energy bill changed? How has the Western European economies been affected? It has had a huge negative impact on Western European economies. There are no parts of the world for whom this has been “pretty good” . Yes the defence sector’s shares have risen, on the back of the realisation that Putin is a word removed and you know, maybe appeasement isn’t the best solution, something that needed to be woken up to way back, a decade plus ago. When Putin started a war defence companies got more orders for things that go bang - colour me shocked . While some shares go up , gas, guns, others have gone down. it’s been good (overall) for no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, magnkarl said: The US have given 0.19% of their defense budget last year to Ukraine. We're not much better. Can't blame them. This is a European war (again) and European countries, apart from the Baltics, are just sitting there hoping Uncle Sam saves the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 hours ago, blandy said: ”it’s not our economy”. How’s your energy bill changed? How has the Western European economies been affected? It has had a huge negative impact on Western European economies. There are no parts of the world for whom this has been “pretty good” . Yes the defence sector’s shares have risen, on the back of the realisation that Putin is a word removed and you know, maybe appeasement isn’t the best solution, something that needed to be woken up to way back, a decade plus ago. When Putin started a war defence companies got more orders for things that go bang - colour me shocked . While some shares go up , gas, guns, others have gone down. it’s been good (overall) for no one. Yeah, I wasn’t counting everyday folk in the ‘us’ I was referring to all the folk that make money out of disaster, be it a property crash, or a war, or a shortage of ppe, or the price of energy because we set the price for all energy based on irrelevant factors, the western companies controlling sales of Russian oil through the Red Sea, the need to go to an agency for some nursing staff, your credit card interest going up because the BoE are controlling inflation, or the people that lease railway rolling stock. You know the guys. Those were the guys I was referring to, slightly sarcastically, as ‘us’. The ones with real access to our government. Hey look, I’ve been wrong about this for 2 years now. Let’s see how much longer I’m wrong about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 (edited) 2 hours ago, villa89 said: Can't blame them. This is a European war (again) and European countries, apart from the Baltics, are just sitting there hoping Uncle Sam saves the day. Not true either. Scandinavia, the Netherlands and several of the Eastern European nations (Poland, Czechia) have pulled as much as the Baltics. Norway is the single biggest donator per GDP if you look at agreements made outside of EU bilateral agreements. Look at Denmark going ahead and donating all its artillery to Ukraine, taking their total donated completely modern Caesar systems above the actual producer of the systems (France). It's ludicrous. Denmark has the population of an average European capital. UK, France and other 'big' European countries on the other hand, as well as Canada and the US.. If NATO countries donated 0.25% their yearly GDP to Ukraine this war would be over in a jiffy. Yet only the smaller nations have the balls to do so. Edited February 20 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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