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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


maqroll

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3 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Wagner troops who did not take part in the mutiny may join the Russian Army. 

Yep and those that did take part will be pardoned (and executed anyway)

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22 minutes ago, Genie said:

Will “the West” allow an attack launched from Belarus (if the rumoured scenario is that Wagner could potentially reform and enter Ukraine from the North) to go unpunished?

 

I don't see any advance from Belarus Genie. Ukrainian forces have solid defences across the border with Belarus, Russian forces are spread too thin and Belarus have a toy army, one you could probably collect buying cereals. Wagner are done as well by he looks of it. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Genie said:

Will “the West” allow an attack launched from Belarus (if the rumoured scenario is that Wagner could potentially reform and enter Ukraine from the North) to go unpunished?

 

The Belarus Ukraine border is perfect defensive terrain.  Its dense forests, swamps, rivers and highly radioactive land.  

Ukraine has been fortifying it since the start of the war.   

An attack from Belarus is not likely.  Russia could barely defend Moscow. 

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Prighozhin will be in some African nation by the end of the week. His family is already gone from Russia according to sources around the family. 

He's essentially got a bigger army in Africa, and could hole up somewhere in the jungle with his goons.

Edited by magnkarl
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1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

Prighozhin will be in some African nation by the end of the week. His family is already gone from Russia according to sources around the family. 

He's essentially got a bigger army in Africa, and could hole up somewhere in the jungle with his goons.

He's made a massive mistake backing away. Once he'd decided to go after the regime he needed to see it through because he's a dead man now either way. He'll need to watch everything he eats, drinks and touches until the end of his days and there's no where in the world he can go that the FSB won't find him. His only hope to live was if Wagner desposed Putin and that's gone now.

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1 hour ago, Genie said:

Russia says Wagner troops will be offered contracts in the regular Russian army. If they survive longer than 1 day I’d be amazed.

Hobsons Choice - noice!

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1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The official standpoint from Russia.  Prigozhin isn't off the hook by a long way. 

 

 

 

Prigozhin might have had a shocker here if true.

Agreed to stand down based on promises from the least trustworthy person in the planet.

Moscow is unchallenged and he’ll probably end up in a ditch before the week is out. 

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So was this all orchestrated from within to encourage Prigozhin to make a move which was always doomed to fail and to then use that to shift him out of the picture and for the Wagner group to be fully and formally transitioned into the Russian military?

Whilst also an exercise in cleaning the house of any sympathisers?

Seems elaborate but not seeing many other reasonable justifications for what happened over the weekend.

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21 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

So was this all orchestrated from within to encourage Prigozhin to make a move which was always doomed to fail and to then use that to shift him out of the picture and for the Wagner group to be fully and formally transitioned into the Russian military?

Whilst also an exercise in cleaning the house of any sympathisers?

Seems elaborate but not seeing many other reasonable justifications for what happened over the weekend.

The Sky news  analyst take is 

But our military analyst Sean Bell says Prigozhin was really just looking for an opportunity to try to oust the head of the Russian army Valery Gerasimov and defence secretary Sergei Shoigu - until doubts started to creep in.

"If you look at it from a very simple perspective, Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group was told it was going to have to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence on 1 July," he said. 

"That date was fast approaching and it was pretty evident the Wagner Group, which only makes money when they are commissioned to do this sort of dirty work for Putin... that its opportunity was waning. 

"Therefore he was finding himself gradually ostracised, and he thought he could mount some kind of protest." 

Initially, Prigozhin managed to take over the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don without a shot being fired, but gradually the situation began to unravel as he moved up the M4 highway towards Moscow. 

"What looks pretty evident as Prigozhin was heading up the M4, actually he was being opposed," Bell said.

"Apparently he tried to call Putin. Putin wouldn't take his call. The Russian air force tried to fire against Prigozhin. By all accounts, seven helicopters were shot down by him. 

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56 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

So was this all orchestrated from within to encourage Prigozhin to make a move which was always doomed to fail and to then use that to shift him out of the picture and for the Wagner group to be fully and formally transitioned into the Russian military?

Whilst also an exercise in cleaning the house of any sympathisers?

Seems elaborate but not seeing many other reasonable justifications for what happened over the weekend.

No way it was orchestrated. Putin looks like a pussy who fled the Kremlin with danger still several hundred km away. Prigozhin will probably be dead before the week is out. Prigozhin knew he was a dead man walking so had little to lose.

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