Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

It feels like the strategy from those opposing Russia is to arm Ukraine just well enough to keep the invaders at bay. Not really to kick them out or unleash fury on them. I do wonder about this strategy. If Putin does mobilise millions of men then the response from the West will be increased for sure… why not go all in now and push Russia back?

Is it a deliberate tactic to destroy Russia long term by extending the conflict as long as possible?

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

It also seems most European countries (and even the US to some extent) we’re not really set up or prepared for a conventional military campaign like this. All defence and intel investment had been focused on counterterrorism type operations. 

I disagree.  Over the past 20 years the focus has been fighting irregular forces/terrorists.  But it’s also been the development of stealth and high mobility weapons. 

Russia is presently being held by Ukraine and surplus NATO weapons that aren’t particularly powerful in comparison to what is available. 

In my experience,  NATO tactics against USSR/Russia are the same today as they were 30 years ago.  Let Russia advance, take control of the skies and shred the Russian supply lines.  NATO arms itself accordingly.  That’s why we have stealth fighters, stealth bombers, highly effective antitank weapons for infantry, etc.  None of those weapons were developed to fight terrorists.  They were designed to fight China and/or Russia.  

 

[LondonLax]

2 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I disagree.  Over the past 20 years the focus has been fighting irregular forces/terrorists.  But it’s also been the development of stealth and high mobility weapons. 

Russia is presently being held by Ukraine and surplus NATO weapons that aren’t particularly powerful in comparison to what is available. 

In my experience,  NATO tactics against USSR/Russia are the same today as they were 30 years ago.  Let Russia advance, take control of the skies and shred the Russian supply lines.  NATO arms itself accordingly.  That’s why we have stealth fighters, stealth bombers, highly effective antitank weapons for infantry, etc.  None of those weapons were developed to fight terrorists.  They were designed to fight China and/or Russia.  

 

Sure, but it sounds like many European countries have had simple logistical issues, like finding appropriate ammunition in sufficient quantities for the weapons they were supposedly going to rely on in a conventional war.

In short it feels like some have been caught with their pants down in some departments. 

[pas5898]

44 minutes ago, Genie said:

It feels like the strategy from those opposing Russia is to arm Ukraine just well enough to keep the invaders at bay. Not really to kick them out or unleash fury on them. I do wonder about this strategy. If Putin does mobilise millions of men then the response from the West will be increased for sure… why not go all in now and push Russia back?

Is it a deliberate tactic to destroy Russia long term by extending the conflict as long as possible?

USA in particular would love this war to go on forever. They could give Ukraine enough firepower to retake their land tomorrow.

They are giving Ukraine older 1990's weapons, then paying off their military machine to build newer hi-tech weapons.

They are modernising their army & spending more on their "defence" than ever whilst having no dead American Soliders on TV, or innocent children being droned in the middle east. All whilst completely crippling a former superpower.

It's literally perfect for them. The longer the better.

Edited January 6, 2023 by pas5898

[magnkarl]

39 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Sure, but it sounds like many European countries have had simple logistical issues, like finding appropriate ammunition in sufficient quantities for the weapons they were supposedly going to rely on in a conventional war.

In short it feels like some have been caught with their pants down in some departments. 

The issue has been finding ammunition for (largely) out of use towed howitzers and M109's. (most of the ones delivered don't work with excaliber shells) Our armies aren't really meant to be deploying dumb bombs anymore, so we don't need the quanitity of shells that Ukraine and Russia have been expending.

For us artillery is about missiles, glmrs, stealth bombing and plane fired smart rockets, not pulverising everything into dust. NATO's tactics are much more conservative on the ammunition than Russia's tactics mainly due to the fact that our systems actually hit where they're meant to hit.

Edited January 6, 2023 by magnkarl

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, tinker said:

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

Though that graph is a disgrace for among other France, it's a credit to Poland, Sweden, Norway, Canada, Czechia and Sweden. Put GDP on top of that and Latvia has probably given more of their actual base than the U.S. You've also got to account for EU countries donating through EU, here's a better, newer graph. As you can see, Poland and Norway are the biggest donators when you look at their actual impact on the economy. France is just a fart in the wind.

Edited January 6, 2023 by magnkarl

[tinker]

11 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Though that graph is a disgrace for among other France, it's a credit to Poland, Sweden, Norway, Canada, Czechia and Sweden. Put GDP on top of that and Latvia has probably given more of their actual base than the U.S. You've also got to account for EU countries donating through EU, here's a better, newer graph. As you can see, Poland and Norway are the biggest donators when you look at their actual impact on the economy. France is just a fart in the wind.

I see your point but the military aid from the EU is a disgrace, it's a war in our own back yard and we are relying on the USA to bail us out military wise and from a leadership point of view. I'm pro EU but this begs questions on the EU and it's lack of leadership. I'm surprised the Brexit crew isn't jumping all over it tbh and rightly so IMO. 

There's a storm brewing in Serbia as well , I just hope the EU doesn't stand back and let others take up the slack there. 

[bickster]

9 minutes ago, tinker said:

I see your point but the military aid from the EU is a disgrace

It's an economic union not a defence alliance. It has very little military aid it can give

[magnkarl]

34 minutes ago, tinker said:

I see your point but the military aid from the EU is a disgrace, it's a war in our own back yard and we are relying on the USA to bail us out military wise and from a leadership point of view. I'm pro EU but this begs questions on the EU and it's lack of leadership. I'm surprised the Brexit crew isn't jumping all over it tbh and rightly so IMO. 

There's a storm brewing in Serbia as well , I just hope the EU doesn't stand back and let others take up the slack there. 

Serbia isn't going to do a thing. They thought they had a big brother who would help them out, but now it turns out that they're surrounded by NATO and the only credible way for their economy to survive anything is to join the EU. To join the EU they need to seriously reform their mindset and hand over several of their most ardent pro-russian criminals to the Hague. Russia didn't have the capability to help out Armenia which is closer to their borders, there's absolutely no way they're going to be flying anything over to Serbia.

Also, as Bicks pointed out, and much to Macron's disliking, the EU isn't a military power. It has bought some equipment and delivered, but that's about it. EU's military power is NATO, as most of their members are part of NATO.

I wonder how it feels for France to have a country with 4.8 million people (Norway) provide more military aid to a country you're supposed to be friends with and who are fighting for their democratic life. 

Edited January 6, 2023 by magnkarl

[bickster]

I see the Russia Eastern Orthodox Xmas 36 hour ceasefire they announced was well observed. Not

Fire Station shelled in Kherson

Constant shelling in Bakhmut

Air Raid sirens across Ukraine

[Genie]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

I see the Russia Eastern Orthodox Xmas 36 hour ceasefire they announced was well observed. Not

Fire Station shelled in Kherson

Constant shelling in Bakhmut

Air Raid sirens across Ukraine

Has Putin announced yet why it’s Ukraines fault?

[bickster]

31 minutes ago, Genie said:

Has Putin announced yet why it’s Ukraines fault?

Nazis and NATO probably

[bickster]

Don't think this got reported here, from last night. They never seem to learn any lessons from their previous failures

 

[trekka]

 

[bickster]

Opening that second front from Belarus. Bear this in mind (there's another tweet above these)

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

4 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Sure, but it sounds like many European countries have had simple logistical issues, like finding appropriate ammunition in sufficient quantities for the weapons they were supposedly going to rely on in a conventional war.

In short it feels like some have been caught with their pants down in some departments. 

Hmmmmmm.............

NATO countries use standard ammunition calibres. In theory it allows countries to use one another's supplies.  But the most recent additions to NATO are ex-Warsaw Pact Countries.  These countries are still heavily dependent upon Soviet weapons and calibres.  

This has been good news for Ukraine.  NATO has been able to supply Soviet weapons and ammunition along with standalone NATO systems.  That has left some NATO countries in need of ex Soviet ammunition. They have taken the sensible option and decided to move to NATO compatible weapons instead.   

NATO has taken the sensible step of transferring its weapons from relatively safe countries to the ones on the Russian border who need them immediately.  

It really does not matter if the UK runs low on stocks of anti-tank missiles.  We aren't going to need them to repel Russian tanks.  Poland, Estonia, Latvia,  Romania et al can achieve that on our behalf if they become necessary.  

[tinker]

4 hours ago, magnkarl said:

Serbia isn't going to do a thing. They thought they had a big brother who would help them out, but now it turns out that they're surrounded by NATO and the only credible way for their economy to survive anything is to join the EU. To join the EU they need to seriously reform their mindset and hand over several of their most ardent pro-russian criminals to the Hague. Russia didn't have the capability to help out Armenia which is closer to their borders, there's absolutely no way they're going to be flying anything over to Serbia.

Also, as Bicks pointed out, and much to Macron's disliking, the EU isn't a military power. It has bought some equipment and delivered, but that's about it. EU's military power is NATO, as most of their members are part of NATO.

I wonder how it feels for France to have a country with 4.8 million people (Norway) provide more military aid to a country you're supposed to be friends with and who are fighting for their democratic life. 

Kosovo PM says Russia is inflaming Serbia tensions as Ukraine war falters

Albin Kurti warns rising tensions only benefit Putin as ethnic Serbs set up road blocks in north of country

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/20/kosovo-pm-albin-kurti-says-russia-is-inflaming-serbia-tensions-as-ukraine-war-falters

 

[tinker]

5 hours ago, bickster said:

It's an economic union not a defence alliance. It has very little military aid it can give

It's also Political. 

[bannedfromHandV]

I can’t help but feel that we’re falling into the same traps on ‘our side’ of the equation (not that it really is ‘our side’, whilst we’re supporting Ukraine we’re not directly involved) as those on the ‘other side’ in terms of propaganda and information / misinformation.

I appreciate the contributions from folks in this thread in terms of digging up and sharing info but it’s so one sided, always high numbers of Russians dead and vehicles destroyed etc.

I appreciate it’s impossible these days but it would be great to just have balanced / accurate information.

[bickster]

1 hour ago, tinker said:

It's also Political. 

What on earth does that mean in this context? Are you suggesting the EU exports some politics to Ukraine? The EU's record as an entity with regards to Ukraine is clear to see in those bar charts. But also what isn't clear in those charts is the economic blockade the EU has enacted towards Russia. I'm baffled by the point you are trying to make because what you originally claimed, just doesn't stand up to scrutiny