Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

My point is it's not that simple. What about Tibet, should we start with post Chinese annexation for that? 

Russia and China don't care about what rules we may want them to follow. I don't see Russia ever accepting Crimea returning to Ukraine and would mobilize and potentially use tactical nukes to defend it

No they wouldn’t. If they’re not doing it now while their army is being ground into dust in Ukraine, they won’t do it when Ukraine starts fighting their way into Crimea.

Using even tactical nukes would be suicidal, and how is mobilising going to help them? If we reach the point where Crimea is being threatened then Ukraine would have overwhelming military superiority. Even if they call up millions of men, how long would it take to train them? What artillery and tanks would they be equipped with? How long would conscripts last against the same Ukrainians that had dismantled the professional Russian army and PMCs?

39 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

No chance. If NATO wanted to go to war with Russia it would have happened by now. 

Once this war is over Russia will be in no shape to start a war with anyone, and if Ukraine joins NATO then there’s zero chance Russia attacks them even once they’ve replenished their forces.

Russia is not exactly scared of the Estonian army, but they’ve left them alone.

Edited September 18, 2022 by Panto_Villan

[LondonLax]

40 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

No they wouldn’t. If they’re not doing it now while their army is being ground into dust in Ukraine, they won’t do it when Ukraine starts fighting their way into Crimea.

Using even tactical nukes would be suicidal, and how is mobilising going to help them? If we reach the point where Crimea is being threatened then Ukraine would have overwhelming military superiority. Even if they call up millions of men, how long would it take to train them? What artillery and tanks would they be equipped with? How long would conscripts last against the same Ukrainians that had dismantled the professional Russian army and PMCs?

Once this war is over Russia will be in no shape to start a war with anyone, and if Ukraine joins NATO then there’s zero chance Russia attacks them even once they’ve replenished their forces.

Russia is not exactly scared of the Estonian army, but they’ve left them alone.

Ukraine will not be permitted to join NATO while there is an active dispute in part of their country. It’s inviting a NATO war no one in NATO wants. 

[sidcow]

4 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Ukraine will not be permitted to join NATO while there is an active dispute in part of their country. It’s inviting a NATO war no one in NATO wants. 

Which is another reason why actually giving up Crimea might be an overall positive for them. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

5 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

I’ve mentioned this before but gas is only like 10-15% of the value of their oil exports. Gas revenue could fall to zero without causing Russia too many problems in the grand scheme of things.

So while Russia is running out of places to send their gas, oil is much easier to transport and China and India are both happy to buy as much oil as Russia can pump, provided its at a bit of a discount.

The reason there’s no worldwide ban on Russian oil is because nobody except the West would pay any attention to it, so it won’t work. The sanctions are doing plenty of damage to Russia’s economy but they’re never going to be ruined to the level you seem to be expecting.

By the way, even if the whole world moves to clean energy and electric cars, there’s still a lot of uses for oil that won’t dry up. Plastics production, etc. Oil will still have value in 50 years.

The West waged an economic war with the USSR which ultimately led to its collapse. The USSR had more gas and oil than Russia does.

Having gas and oil is irrelevant if you don't have the expertise to extract it, the equipment to ship it, the insurance for tankers that transport it, the investment necessary to maintain its flow or a currency that anyone else wants or trades in. 

Don't underestimate how effective economic war can be.  I remember the USSR. Its currency was literally worthless outside the Warsaw Pact.

 

[Panto_Villan]

58 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Ukraine will not be permitted to join NATO while there is an active dispute in part of their country. It’s inviting a NATO war no one in NATO wants. 

Yes, but my post said “after the war”. It seems highly likely that the territories will be assigned one way or another in the final ceasefire / peace treaty. The war is going to rumble on until one side is willing to give  in.

[LondonLax]

1 hour ago, sidcow said:

Which is another reason why actually giving up Crimea might be an overall positive for them. 

I think Ukraine would probably be willing to give it up. It’s extremely important for Russia, their whole Black Sea navy is based there, and it full of well armed and partisan Russians.

It would be a nightmare for Ukraine to try and maintain ownership.

It would be quite a good bargaining chip for them though so hopefully they do take it at some point during this war and then begin any cease fire negotiations from that position of strength. 

[Panto_Villan]

50 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The West waged an economic war with the USSR which ultimately led to its collapse. The USSR had more gas and oil than Russia does.

Having gas and oil is irrelevant if you don't have the expertise to extract it, the equipment to ship it, the insurance for tankers that transport it, the investment necessary to maintain its flow or a currency that anyone else wants or trades in. 

Don't underestimate how effective economic war can be.  I remember the USSR. Its currency was literally worthless outside the Warsaw Pact.

 

The USSR was in economic competition with the capitalist West to prove which was the dominant superpower, and it lost. But it only collapsed because it stopped the repression which kept the various republics together.

Many poorer and less advanced countries than the USSR have survived crippling sanctions. The trick is not to try to be a superpower, and not to let up on the repression. Look at North Korea or Iran.

[sidcow]

 

 

[Genie]

Quote

One of Russia's most popular singers, Alla Pugacheva, has called on the Russian authorities to declare her a "foreign agent", in solidarity with her strongly anti-war husband Maxim Galkin.

A showbiz star too, he was labelled a "foreign agent" on Friday after condemning Russia's attack on Ukraine.

On social media Pugacheva called her husband "a true incorruptible Russian patriot, who wants... an end to our lads dying for illusory aims".

She has been a big star for decades.

She said the Kremlin's "illusory aims" in Ukraine "make our country a pariah and the lives of our citizens extremely difficult". 

Galkin, a comedian, TV presenter and singer, wanted "prosperity for his motherland, peace, free speech", she added.

I hope she stays away from windows.

Link

[ml1dch]

52 minutes ago, Genie said:

I hope she stays away from windows.

Link

Seemed interesting so I had a bit of a wiki-dive.

She was one of the biggest stars in the Soviet Union from the sixties onwards, she's been with her husband for 20 years, they met when he was in his early 20s and she was in her mid 50s.

They moved to Israel earlier this year, precisely for the reason you mention.

Always nice to learn about new people. 

[magnkarl]

11 hours ago, sidcow said:

 

 

Ah - the M109. We used to train on these in the 70's. At the time it was a lovely piece of kit as it had heating inside the cabin so we didn't have to stand outside and freeze our bees knees off. One of the variants even had heated seats! Going from standing outside next to towed artillery to being inside one of these was heaven.

It was a great piece of kit back then, and I'm sure it can do a good job today if it's been upgraded with targeting software etc.

[magnkarl]

Russia 'liberated' the whole of Luhansk less than two months ago, now they're soon back to the 2014 line of contact around two cities they lost an estimated 10.000 soldiers trying to capture..

[magnkarl]

Pinch of salt, but huge if true. Severodonetsk and further into Luhansk next.

[bickster]

28 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Pinch of salt, but huge if true. Severodonetsk and further into Luhansk next.

Huge pinch of salt I think. Thats about 19KM away

 

[magnkarl]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

Huge pinch of salt I think. Thats about 19KM away

 

With OpSec being so tight, Ukraine might as well have forward elements pushing at Lysychansk though. Though I agree it could be the foreign legion trying to get the Russians to rout.

Edited September 19, 2022 by magnkarl

[avfc1982am]

The deepstate map is showing forward lines approx 5km from the city. That map update was at 22:45 last night. I'm sure that the updates are at least 24-48 hours behind, so there is a good chance the battle for the city is already underway. I think it's plausible that Ukrainian forces have taken a good portion of it already. 

[KentVillan]

 

 

[bickster]

I thought this was interesting. A telegram post by Khodakovsky who is as it says but also is a defector from the security services of Ukraine and the head of the DPR's Security Services highlighting what is going on at the front and how Ukraine are operating. It seems the Russians know what is going on, can't do anything about it and that more is coming their way as there are continual delivery of supplies for the next big push on the Eastern front

 

[magnkarl]

10 hours ago, bickster said:

I thought this was interesting. A telegram post by Khodakovsky who is as it says but also is a defector from the security services of Ukraine and the head of the DPR's Security Services highlighting what is going on at the front and how Ukraine are operating. It seems the Russians know what is going on, can't do anything about it and that more is coming their way as there are continual delivery of supplies for the next big push on the Eastern front

 

It's turning into a bit of a Soviet v Nazi Germany towards the end of the war. Russia (Germany) is stretched thin and can only react while Ukraine (Soviet) overloads one area after the other. I'm hoping that the next 'cut' will be down to the sea towards Melitopol and Berdyansk so that they can start closing the pocket towards Kherson and the 25.000 soldiers still on the other side of the Dnipro and get within range of the Crimean-mainland roads with their HIMARS. By all means I also want them to cut the water to Crimea asap, then the Russian logistics train will have to focus on driving water across the Kerch bridge rather than soldiers, tanks and ammo.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]