Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

3 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Russia were pre-empting the lend lease decision earlier, by saying to their own that the US and Poland planned to invade Western Ukraine - which is now effectively what will happen in equipment terms anyway. Surely Putin's off ramp here is to grab what he can before the tide turns, consolidate, and then claim the rest of Ukraine is beyond saving. 

Ukraine will want that land back, that solution doesn't work for Ukraine and clearly doesn't work for those countries supporting them.

If Putin stopped attacking today and consolodated what he had, that wouldn't stop the war

 

[avfc1982am]

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Russia were pre-empting the lend lease decision earlier, by saying to their own that the US and Poland planned to invade Western Ukraine - which is now effectively what will happen in equipment terms anyway. Surely Putin's off ramp here is to grab what he can before the tide turns, consolidate, and then claim the rest of Ukraine is beyond saving. 

That's what he is going to try to do but unless Russia move quick to take the south to link Crimea. Like in weeks. They will be fighting a force as heavily armed on the ground as they are. And against far superior weapon systems. They may have big rockets but it's about all they have other than fodder. This is going to get really messy now because the US has green lighted facilitating Ukraine to take it all back. 

He should never have gone for Kyiv and just gone straight into Donbas and consolidated. He got greedy and his forces are now going to pay the price far more than they have already.

[theunderstudy]

Yeah I agree Bicks. I mentioned this in my comment about them not finding a compromise. Rusianes eunt domus

Edited April 28, 2022 by theunderstudy

[Jareth]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

Ukraine will want that land back, that solution doesn't work for Ukraine and clearly doesn't work for those countries supporting them.

If Putin stopped attacking today and consolodated what he had, that wouldn't stop the war

 

I don't for a moment imagine it would stop the war - and Ukraine should do what they feel necessary - but if Putin wanted to defend the land he has stolen then that is surely an option for him. He can't take any more of Ukraine, but the least he's going to do is to hold what he's got - it's almost their exact stated aim when they withdrew from Kiev - to take the East and the South.

[avfc1982am]

6 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I don't for a moment imagine it would stop the war - and Ukraine should do what they feel necessary - but if Putin wanted to defend the land he has stolen then that is surely an option for him. He can't take any more of Ukraine, but the least he's going to do is to hold what he's got - it's almost their exact stated aim when they withdrew from Kiev - to take the East and the South.

They're not taking it, they're destroying it, making gains and losing gains. It's tit for tat at the moment and will be. Russia are stretched so far(300km) trying to hold onto anything will need to be monumental. Not only that but gaining scorched earth. There will be no rebuilding of Kherson, Mariupol. These will just become wastelands or battle zones for years. 

What isn't being mentioned is that the pro Russian separatists in the Donbas only accounted for 30% of the population. 70% were Ukrainian speaking. Basically he's done a Hitler and driven a War on the basis he's looking after the citizens of the Donbas when in reality most are not Russians or even pro Russia. Russia have no right to that land and nobody has a right to tell Ukraine not to fight for it back.  

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, avfc1982am said:

Russia have no right to that land and nobody has a right to tell Ukraine not to fight for it back.  

Couldn't agree more. Would only be justice if a newly equipped Ukraine could drive the bastards out and take back what's theirs - I hope that happens now or eventually. In the meantime Putin unless he's gone completely nuts is going to have to settle somehow while saving face, he reframed their special operation was to take the areas they are now in, and perhaps on May 9th or whenever their victory day is, we will see them taking that win and thus an 'off ramp' is achieved. Won't be the end of it of course.

[ciggiesnbeer]

40 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Russia were pre-empting the lend lease decision earlier, by saying to their own that the US and Poland planned to invade Western Ukraine - which is now effectively what will happen in equipment terms anyway. Surely Putin's off ramp here is to grab what he can before the tide turns, consolidate, and then claim the rest of Ukraine is beyond saving. 

I think Putin is going to be surprised. He doesnt control the OFF button on his war any more. Ukraine needs to agree, a two months ago they might of, but  if they are winning as they may well be in the weeks ahead as these heavy arms start to roll in, then why should they? Ukraine may as well keep pushing and liberate as much of their country as they are able.

[Jareth]

2 minutes ago, ciggiesnbeer said:

I think Putin is going to be surprised. He doesnt control the OFF button on his war any more. Ukraine needs to agree, a two months ago they might of, but  if they are winning as they may well be in the weeks ahead as these heavy arms start to roll in, then why should they? Ukraine may as well keep pushing and liberate as much of their country as they are able.

Agree - push them out. Putin must be very nervous - if he ends this war having lost all teritorial gains, and in the process tens of thousands of soldiers, surely his army will take him down.

[avfc1982am]

 

[TheAuthority]

4 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

 

You can't have defense without a defense industry. And right now the US defense is helping to repel the Russians. There are odious people in every line of work, and the more money there is to be made a greater number of odious people seem to be attracted. Just look at football. 

 

[magnkarl]

I wonder if this is the previously Romanian BUK systems having been rolled over the border to shield civilians?

Ukraine seems to have seriously upped the anti on shooting down airplanes too. I presume the UK/Norwegian/French systems already in play are causing havoc for Russia. Once the gepard systems from Germany arrive it'll render attack heliporters fairly useless for Russia. Once we deliver the anti-ship Brimstone missiles the naval blockade of Odesa should be easier to lift. 

I wonder if the US army has any Ukrainians in it that'll volunteer to go join the UA air force with F-16's like they did with us during WW2. Essentially the USAF gave pilots wanting to help UK a leave of absence. 

[It's Your Round]

20 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I wonder if the US army has any Ukrainians in it that'll volunteer to go join the UA air force with F-16's like they did with us during WW2. Essentially the USAF gave pilots wanting to help UK a leave of absence. 

That’s how my Grandfather came to live in the UK. He was a pilot from California who wanted to fight, before the US were willing to. He joined the RAF and never went home. There was loads that did the same and there will be today, I’m sure.

[Awol]

27 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I wonder if the US army has any Ukrainians in it that'll volunteer to go join the UA air force with F-16's like they did with us during WW2. Essentially the USAF gave pilots wanting to help UK a leave of absence. 

Thousands of second generation Ukrainian and Russian Israelis were allowed to go early in the war, despite being in Israel’s reserve forces. They’re as well trained as anyone in lots of specialist skills.

[Jareth]

Nato stating that this will go on for years and they will be ensuring Ukraine transition from soviet to modern equipment. It's all very public, certainly gives me a sense that lines have been drawn and perhaps the nuclear issue has been dismissed by both sides. 

[Genie]

9 hours ago, bickster said:

Ukraine will want that land back, that solution doesn't work for Ukraine and clearly doesn't work for those countries supporting them.

If Putin stopped attacking today and consolodated what he had, that wouldn't stop the war

 

Exactly, Ukraine, UK and others are all saying that Russia need to be pushed out of Ukraine completely. I reckon they won’t stop until they have Crimea back also.

[magnkarl]

Once, and I say once, Finland and Sweden join NATO, it's essentially game over for this illegal invasion. Putin doesn't have the conventional capability to defend his border all the way from Norway to Belarus, and then down to Georgia. His current army of something like 700,000 isn't near enough, and he doesn't have the finances to give these soldiers the gear they need. 

His '10.000' strong T-72 army are essentially so vulnerable to explosions that they're no longer of any use. We need to give Ukraine some platforms that will shred these, Leopards, Merkava, Abrahams, whatever.

[bickster]

 

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

 

I'm wondering if these Polish variants have the same inert weakness that the Russian ones have, where the weak spot is just by the turret which is full of live ammo. They might still be useful in defensive placement though.

[bickster]

Just now, magnkarl said:

I'm wondering if these Polish variants have the same inert weakness that the Russian ones have, where the weak spot is just by the turret which is full of live ammo. They might still be useful in defensive placement though.

Also depends if Ukraine actually push infantry in front of the tanks to wipe out the (inferior) Russian AT weapons on the ground

[desensitized43]

7 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Once, and I say once, Finland and Sweden join NATO, it's essentially game over for this illegal invasion. Putin doesn't have the conventional capability to defend his border all the way from Norway to Belarus, and then down to Georgia. His current army of something like 700,000 isn't near enough, and he doesn't have the finances to give these soldiers the gear they need. 

His '10.000' strong T-72 army are essentially so vulnerable to explosions that they're no longer of any use. We need to give Ukraine some platforms that will shred these, Leopards, Merkava, Abrahams, whatever.

How do you figure that? NATO is a defensive alliance so it's only a problem for the Russians if he decides to attack any of them.