Chindie Posted January 14, 2018 VT Supporter Share Posted January 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, blandy said: Generally you’re right, but I think they have made concession(s). For example, they said there can be no talks on trade until the NI thing is sorted. It isn’t sorted, it’s unsortable unless we stay in the single market, yet trade talks are due to start... Perhaps. I might be a bit out of date (I've not actually thought about Brexit much since before Christmas and tried to forget a lot of it) but wasn't the border issue 'fudged'? With the UK end being in the 'losing' side of it by effectively committing to have nothiing really change until a solution is truly found? Therefore basically giving the EU what it asked for without an express solution (because, as you say, the isn't one that suits everyone). Admittedly I'm almost certainly out of date but I thought that was were it was left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, blandy said: Generally you’re right, but I think they have made concession(s). For example, they said there can be no talks on trade until the NI thing is sorted. It isn’t sorted, it’s unsortable unless we stay in the single market, yet trade talks are due to start... Looking forward to Liam Fox's trade talks with the Yanks. Secret of course. Wonder why? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Chindie said: I understand in negotiations so far, the EU hasn't made a single concession. Everything is going swimmingly and they are definitely the weaker party in talks. Note - this ignores a true no deal as a desirable outcome, because that's clearly mental. We’ve made a big show about wrangling over money, in effect simply fulfilling our moral obligation to pay out the existing commitments under the EU financial framework out to 2020. The deal on citizens is a good one and UK is committed to not establishing a hard border in Ireland - what the Irish do one their side is up to them. But... the money is conditional on UK getting what we want on trade and the 27 will now fight for their own national interests in the future relationship. Objectively we are in good shape to negotiate a good deal in phase 2, imo - however delusional you may think that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 14, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Awol said: I think the broader point is those favouring Remain are still arguing on the basis of arguments (proven or not) that failed to carry the referendum - i.e. economic. The arguments that won the referendum were about political autonomy and control (whether one agreed with them or not). To turn Brexit around those are the arguments that need to be addressed and won by Remain, not refighting lost battles with the same failed strategy. In that sense Remain aren’t even on the pitch, imo. There’s something in that, for sure. I’m not really talking from any standpoint as such. I was just thinking of things like the predictions of we won’t pay them a penny, we will immediately make trade deals with the rest of the world, we’ll do a trade deal with Germany because their car makers will compel Merkel to.... all that kind of utter rubbish. Meanwhile, while not every bit of news on the economy is bad, much of it is indicative of a worsening situation and particularly so when compared to the rest of the EU. I don’t think Brexit will be turned round, so much as I think it’ll be turned down ( volume wise, less extreme, I mean, rather than “rejected”). I think we’ll leave but stay in the single market, do a Norway the deal. Only the zealots who are in a minority would rage against that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, blandy said: There’s something in that, for sure. I’m not really talking from any standpoint as such. I was just thinking of things like the predictions of we won’t pay them a penny, we will immediately make trade deals with the rest of the world, we’ll do a trade deal with Germany because their car makers will compel Merkel to.... all that kind of utter rubbish. Meanwhile, while not every bit of news on the economy is bad, much of it is indicative of a worsening situation and particularly so when compared to the rest of the EU. I don’t think Brexit will be turned round, so much as I think it’ll be turned down ( volume wise, less extreme, I mean, rather than “rejected”). I think we’ll leave but stay in the single market, do a Norway the deal. Only the zealots who are in a minority would rage against that Thing is staying in the single market means no control over EU immigration and no influence over the making of laws we must obey. Basically become an EU colony which is the worst possible outcome and one not even Labour are pushing. Politically that’s a dead duck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, Awol said: I think the broader point is those favouring Remain are still arguing on the basis of arguments (proven or not) that failed to carry the referendum - i.e. economic. The arguments that won the referendum were about political autonomy and control (whether one agreed with them or not). Yes, you're right. Expecting people in this situation to make sensible judgements based on economic arguments wasn't, and isn't going to happen anymore. "If the EU wants to cut itself from the sources of capital that keep the banking system and debt markets afloat then they won’t do a deal on financial services. If they want to maintain the Eurozone, they will" Ah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 33 minutes ago, blandy said: I don’t see that anywhere You don't see what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 14, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Awol said: Thing is staying in the single market means no control over EU immigration and no influence over the making of laws we must obey. Basically become an EU colony which is the worst possible outcome and one not even Labour are pushing. Politically that’s a dead duck. 7 minutes ago, Awol said: UK is committed to not establishing a hard border in Ireland. The UK , as you wrote has committed to not having control over immigration from the EU. With no hard border it is not possible to check everyone. As people keep saying, no one voted to make themselves worse off, I think staying in the single market is far from politically dead, but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, Awol said: The deal on citizens is a good one There isn't a deal on citizens. The proposals about citizens have met with a fair deal of dismay from the people who claim to represent UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 14, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted January 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowychap said: You don't see what? Tony sneering about people not posting some news he saw last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, blandy said: Tony sneering about people not posting some news he saw last week. You must haven missed this post, then: 1 hour ago, tonyh29 said: There were a couple of stories last week ... DB saying they wouldn’t need to relocate as many jobs as they thought , news that influential EU lawmakers are suggesting clearing houses etc should stay in the UK ... true neither has actually happened and it’s just speculation , but that doesn’t usually stop ever other piece of speculation being reported .... guess it was far too important to focus on a hamper Edited January 14, 2018 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 1 minute ago, snowychap said: There isn't a deal on citizens. The proposals about citizens have met with a fair deal of dismay from the people who claim to represent UK citizens living elsewhere in the EU. Sorry, should I have said ‘provisional’ deal? Clearly the EU were satisfied in order to make ... “sufficient progress”. I appreciate that anything less than remaining in the EU will disappoint some people, particularly if they are living in the 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, blandy said: The UK , as you wrote has committed to not having control over immigration from the EU. With no hard border it is not possible to check everyone. As people keep saying, no one voted to make themselves worse off, I think staying in the single market is far from politically dead, but we’ll see. On your first para: Travel is not immigration. I expect visa free travel between the UK and 27 so people can simply fly into Heathrow, rather than leopard crawling through the fields of South Armagh. It’s the automatic right to work that is the control mechanism, anyone visiting any country can chose to overstay illegally if they wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Just now, Awol said: Sorry, should I have said ‘provisional’ deal? Clearly the EU were satisfied in order to make ... “sufficient progress”. I appreciate that anything less than remaining in the EU will disappoint some people, particularly if they are living in the 27. It's not even a 'provisional' deal, is it? It may have been 'sufficient progress' in order for the two sides to talk about other things but there is absolutely nothing concrete in place. It's not 'anything less than remaining in the EU' though I can see and understand why you'd want to characterize it in such a way so that yiou can dismiss it out of hand as 'remaining' stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 (edited) 7 hours ago, Awol said: On your first para: Travel is not immigration. I expect visa free travel between the UK and 27 so people can simply fly into Heathrow, rather than leopard crawling through the fields of South Armagh. You forgot there won’t be any planes in the sky after Brexit Edited January 14, 2018 by tonyh29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 14, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Awol said: On your first para: Travel is not immigration. I expect visa free travel between the UK and 27 so people can simply fly into Heathrow, rather than leopard crawling through the fields of South Armagh. It’s the automatic right to work that is the control mechanism, anyone visiting any country can chose to overstay illegally if they wish. I look at it differently, Jon. While travel isn't immigration, I agree, if there's no border control, or next to none (as is the case now, between UK and RoI) then how can we "regain control of our borders? how do we control immigration when there's nothing to, er, stop people basically wandering across the border, unchecked? It's essentially saying "we put up no additional barrier to people who will no longer have the right to come to the UK from the EU - it's making anyone who does so "illegal" but not making any effort to stop that illegality. I don't think that's what people who are anti the numbers of people who've come here were voting for. Additionally, apart from not meeting the pledge to bring back control of our borders, there's also the matter of the EU single market requiring a border between the EU and non-EU/EEA single market nations. So saying we're not going to put up a border, but we are going to bring back control of our borders, we're going to be outside the single market, but there will be no border with the single market is just a load of contradictory rubbish - it cannot all be true. No single market and immigration control means hard border. Single market means free movement across a notional border. One or the other, not both. Anything else is a lie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 14, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 hours ago, tonyh29 said: You forgot there won’t be any planes in the skys after Brexit that might be tongue in cheek, but the current EU agreement covering EU member countries will no longer be valid. A new one, between the EU and UK is therefore required. It has to be negotiated and agreed. it's likely it will be, but if it isn't, then there's big problem. Same applies for multiple aspects - we've seen re radioactive material etc. that the Gov't just didn't appreciate this and has had to rush to try and fill in all these gaps in agreements. There are many more to be addressed, apart from flights and hospital X ray stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 14, 2018 Author Moderator Share Posted January 14, 2018 2 hours ago, snowychap said: You must have missed : that doesn’t usually stop ever other piece of speculation being reported .... guess it was far too important to focus on a hamper No I didn't - I thought he was talking about the press, not VT in that instance. I have no idea about this hamper thing (though I've been in France, so may have missed it being discussed on here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, blandy said: No I didn't - I thought he was talking about the press, not VT in that instance. I have no idea about this hamper thing (though I've been in France, so may have missed it being discussed on here). Pages 406 and 407. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
limpid Posted January 14, 2018 Administrator Share Posted January 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowychap said: Pages 406 and 407. Not everyone sees the same page numbering. It's why every article has a link to it in the top right - the share link - copy that link and paste it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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