The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[chrisp65]

So, looks like we're all pretty much agreed, rich and powerful americans shouldn't have a voice in this referendum?

I'll sign up for that.

 

[Awol]

The whole "UK to small" for an FTA with the US is nonsense. It's worth noting that the US has an FTA with Oman, population 3 million and an economy the size of a rich tea biscuit. 

All of this guff coming from Obama, the G20, IMF etc is orchestrated by No 10.

However the vote goes Cameron  and Osborne are finished, no way the Tories will stand behind him after briefing against the UK so forcefully. That will be a very small consolation if Remain wins.

On TTIP we'd be better off having no FTA with the US at all than being signed up to that NHS ending disaster, but if we stay in the EU it is inevitable.

Presumably that's a bit of a head scratcher for lefties who love both the EU and socialized medicine. How they rationalize and resolve that contradiction will probably decide the referendum. 

 

Edited April 23, 2016 by Awol

[Mantis]

I have it on good authority that a few months ago Cameron was going round telling Tory MPs that he was pretty relaxed about the referendum. Don't know what's changed or if he was just lying but he does seem to be getting a bit desperate. As Awol said, most of these high-profile interventions have been set up by Downing Street.

[chrisp65]

But surely that's to be expected isn't it? It's hardly a conspiracy that the people in power get to choose the timing and the wording and should try and manipulate the agenda. Is it?

There surely isn't a suggestion here that if Downing Street had been shared by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, they would have refused to have their allies and friends come out with statements advantageous to their side? They'd work out somehow the positive angle of Vladimir Putin being in favour of us leaving the EU. They'd struggle beyond Putin, but they'd find someone, Marie Le Pen maybe.

What is more key here, is the utter incompetence of Cameron to have been played so easily by the right wing of a right wing party. He's got himself, and us, in a position where he has volunteered a referendum on a subject he now tells us is of vital importance. A referendum can be won or lost by what is in the news the day before and we are going to base our children's future's on this.

In the week before the referendum Cameron and the remain group will be 'hostage' to every tale of smuggled immigrants and overly curved cucumbers. One story about one Belgian born brown muslim terrorist being seen in Birmingham and that tilts 100,000 votes. 

Unfortunately, this referendum on our future is easily won or lost on what hits the news on the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday leading up to it. I fear that we will turn away from the crazy leftie EU with it's workers rights and head off in to the arms of the right of the tory party and ukip lot. Locally we had UKIP on a TV debate last week, the regional leader of UKIP was happy to stand at a platform and deny climate change, he told the audience that they shouldn't 'just believe' scientists from all around the world, they should think for themselves. This got the biggest cheer of the evening. This reconfirmed to me that we are not involved in rational debate here. 

What chance have we got.

[HanoiVillan]

4 hours ago, Awol said:

The whole "UK to small" for an FTA with the US is nonsense. It's worth noting that the US has an FTA with Oman, population 3 million and an economy the size of a rich tea biscuit. 

All of this guff coming from Obama, the G20, IMF etc is orchestrated by No 10.

However the vote goes Cameron  and Osborne are finished, no way the Tories will stand behind him after briefing against the UK so forcefully. That will be a very small consolation if Remain wins.

On TTIP we'd be better off having no FTA with the US at all than being signed up to that NHS ending disaster, but if we stay in the EU it is inevitable.

Presumably that's a bit of a head scratcher for lefties who love both the EU and socialized medicine. How they rationalize and resolve that contradiction will probably decide the referendum. 

 

There are a lot of people who don't like the NHS. 

It certainly won't be in any safer hands when Boris Johnson, Priti Patel, Liam Fox or any other member of the Tory far-right wins a leadership election after a LEAVE vote. 

[Awol]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

There are a lot of people who don't like the NHS. 

It certainly won't be in any safer hands when Boris Johnson, Priti Patel, Liam Fox or any other member of the Tory far-right wins a leadership election after a LEAVE vote. 

Of course it will be safer without TTIP! Boris et al may well stuff up the NHS should he become PM (unlikely now since his stupid "part Kenyan" jibe) but then we could vote them out and bring in someone to fix it.

Once TTIP is in place US corporations will have the right to get involved and should a new government try to change that in future, those corporations can sue that government for vast amounts for lost earnings established in a parallel and secret legal system. Full on Orwellian stuff. 

The reason TTIP is all being done so secretively is the agenda of empowering corporations above sovereign governments, and although Remain will tell you sovereignty is old/outdated/anachronistic, it ain't. 

As Obama stated TTIP is being negotiated between the EU and the US. If we leave the EU then TTIP won't apply to UK, and according to him a UK specific FTA will not be a priority for Washington. Despite the fact he's leaving 18 months before a potential Brexit (and his agenda leaves with him) no UK gov could get away with trying to negotiate a TTIP style treaty beyond public scrutiny. It is the opaque nature of the EU institutions that enables it to happen now. 

Edited to add: LOL at "far right" comment!!

Edited April 23, 2016 by Awol

[blandy]

9 hours ago, Awol said:

The whole "UK to small" for an FTA with the US is nonsense

Yes, it is. But no-one''s said that, have they?

[blandy]

5 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

There surely isn't a suggestion here that if Downing Street had been shared by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, they would have refused to have their allies and friends come out with statements advantageous to their side?

Exactly, they weren't complaining when Obama made a speech saying Scotland should stay in the UK 18 months or so ago. Massive hypocrisy from the outer politicians, there.

[blandy]

9 hours ago, Awol said:

On TTIP we'd be better off having no FTA with the US at all than being signed up to that NHS ending disaster, but if we stay in the EU it is inevitable.

Presumably that's a bit of a head scratcher for lefties who love both the EU and socialized medicine. How they rationalize and resolve that contradiction will probably decide the referendum.

I agree on the first part. TTIP as currently being planned is bad. It's an indicator of much that is wrong with the EU. Unfortunately people generally aren't aware of the dangers. One of those IPSOS Mori people came round a while back and asked what I thought about a whole range of stuff. When I mentioned TTIP she said "what?" So someone surveying a load of people on political views had never heard of it, never heard anyone mention it.

We only know about it because a few MEPs, mainly Greens, have raised a stink about it, then others have cottoned on. Tories are generally (politicians I mean) strongly in favour and they are fine with what's being done. They opposed steps to exclude the NHS from it's provisions.

Pragmatically if we leave, England will be worse off on TTIP because the tories are more in favour of it than the EU generally. In the EU there's hope that the bad parts of it will be taken out. Leave and we're goosed.

That said the way it's being done to date by the EU is appalling, and in some ways enough to make me think "Leave".

[tonyh29]

59 minutes ago, blandy said:

Exactly, they weren't complaining when Obama made a speech saying Scotland should stay in the UK 18 months or so ago. Massive hypocrisy from the outer politicians, there.

My memory is fading when did Obama fly over and give this speech ? 

[Xann]

Germany and France still want to make stuff.

Whilst our industry was being outsourced, the Germans kept making stuff whilst trying to take the DDR on board.

The German people are more anti TTIP than us, the majority oppose. The people of Europe are turning against the deal as word gets out.

Will it be enough, soon enough? Hope so

Depends if it looks like we care, and what numbers we turn out in?

 

The politics of profit have shafted the United Kingdom, don't see how exit is going to sort that?

The current mob entrenched in Parliament have used their majority to give the vulnerable a kicking.

Minus EU rights, how many more become vulnerable?

 

I'd love to vote out and be more self sufficient. Not enough evidence of this over past decades.

The immediate future isn't looking great. China running power stations? Seriously?

[blandy]

30 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

My memory is fading when did Obama fly over and give this speech ? 

G7 conference thingy - Link to video. Dunno if it was UK, but was Yurp somewhere - brussels maybe?

He did a telegraph article as well I think, so similar in a way to this time. As Chrisp said, of course there's an element of "it would be awfully helpful if you could give your views.." from Cameron etc. but they are his views, and they're something to factor in to people's considerations. I mean it's not rocket science that as he said on the telly news

Quote

 

 ”I’m offering my opinion. In democracy everybody should want more information not less.”

“If I’ve got access to a massive market, where I sell 44 per cent of my exports and now I’m thinking about leaving the organisation that gives me access to that market, that is responsible for millions of jobs, and commerce on which businesses depend. That’s not something I’d probably do.”....“Nothing will impact the emotional and cultural and intellectual affinities... our focus will be on negotiating with a big bloc and the UK is going to be at the back of the queue.”

 

I find it hard to argue with that logic. And while the points made by Out campaign about America would b=never give up their sovereignty in the way the EU takes some of it from us are highly valid, it still doesn't counter the basic point that to get our sovereignty partly back, we'd pay a price. It's up to people to decide if it's worth it.

[Awol]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

Pragmatically if we leave, England will be worse off on TTIP because the tories are more in favour of it than the EU generally. In the EU there's hope that the bad parts of it will be taken out. Leave and we're goosed.

Sorry Pete but I can't make sense of this paragraph. TTIP is an EU/US treaty. If we leave the EU then UK is excluded from TTIP, a fact reinforced by Obama. How can we then be worse off in that regard? 

Also I'd say your hopes of reforming the treaty are for the birds. The text is kept under lock and key in various US embassies, access is by appointment only and strict confidentiality agreements are signed by the few allowed to see it.

The corporate and financial interests behind TTIP ensure reform is impossible - much like the EU itself... and therein lies the rub. Being for one (EU) and against the other (TTIP) is a logical fallacy. 

[chrisp65]

I'm anti TTIP and it is probably the one thing that could persuade me to vote out.

But once out, we will have a tory government, and being realistic we've probably got at least 9 years of that. If the outers win then the right wing of a right wing party will have the upper hand. Anyone that thinks we will be 'protected' against big business by the right wing of the tory party needs to have a serious re think. Anyone that thinks the right wing of the tory party is here to protect the NHS really really needs to think on.

We might be out of TTIP, we won't be out of the hands of business and profit over people. Having just googled the conservative and conservative MEP position on TTIP they are strongly for it. So these people once out of the EU would then protect us against it? Dream on.

-----

What on earth is this bizarre rubbish Boris Johnson and Farage are going on about today claiming Obama's Kenyan ancestory means he's deliberately plotting against us? That is proper right wing swivel eyed conspiracy stuff there. Farage this morning on the radio also started on about how Obama had got rid of Churchill from his office so we shouldn't listen to him or trust him. There's plenty of reasons not to trust Obama, what ornaments he likes is well down the list. Boris has apparently come out with something similar? Weird.

 

[Awol]

56 minutes ago, blandy said:

G7 conference thingy - Link to video. Dunno if it was UK, but was Yurp somewhere - brussels maybe?

He did a telegraph article as well I think, so similar in a way to this time. As Chrisp said, of course there's an element of "it would be awfully helpful if you could give your views.." from Cameron etc. but they are his views, and they're something to factor in to people's considerations. I mean it's not rocket science that as he said on the telly news

I find it hard to argue with that logic. And while the points made by Out campaign about America would b=never give up their sovereignty in the way the EU takes some of it from us are highly valid, it still doesn't counter the basic point that to get our sovereignty partly back, we'd pay a price. It's up to people to decide if it's worth it.

Problem with this is the Remain argument that free trade with the EU would end with Brexit. That's an absurd proposition IMO, as Germany's single largest export market they cannot afford tariffs between the EU and UK. If the recent financial and immigration crises in the EU teach us anything, it's that Germany enforces its will on the EU nations - the idea of the EU as some equitable and equal club of nations is demonstrable fantasy. 

We may wish to exit the single market and thus free ourselves of the supremacy of EU law and free movement of people, but that doesn't mean ending free trade - the EU has FTA's with dozens of countries without any form of political union. 

The big unspoken fear in Brussels and Washington is the broader unhappiness in EU countries with the project. If (and we won't) the UK leaves, others will start looking to do the same in quick time.

The EU isn't a bad idea it's just been badly structured and badly executed. Hitting reset and doing it again properly would be more beneficial long term than reinforcing failure. Unfortunately that means leaving and slaying the vested interests (Goldman Sachs et al) first in order to do so.

[Awol]

10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

We might be out of TTIP, we won't be out of the hands of business and profit over people. Having just googled the conservative and conservative MEP position on TTIP they are strongly for it. So these people once out of the EU would then protect us against it? Dream on.

But as Obama has so helpfully pointed out, the UK will be at the the very back of the American "countries we are going to f***" list.

It doesn't matter what the evil right wingers want, it takes two to tango and apparently the Americans aren't for dancing. Besides if the UK electorate don't want an evil right wing government, they can choose to vote it out... And that is the point, not whether the Treasury (and their arsecake forecasts) say GDP will be plus or minus 2% in 2047. Having control over and the ability to dismiss the people who make our laws is fundamentally what the referendum is about. The rest is just noise and deliberate distraction - although the government are doing it very well. 

[HanoiVillan]

5 hours ago, Awol said:

But as Obama has so helpfully pointed out, the UK will be at the the very back of the American "countries we are going to f***" list.

It doesn't matter what the evil right wingers want, it takes two to tango and apparently the Americans aren't for dancing. Besides if the UK electorate don't want an evil right wing government, they can choose to vote it out... And that is the point, not whether the Treasury (and their arsecake forecasts) say GDP will be plus or minus 2% in 2047. Having control over and the ability to dismiss the people who make our laws is fundamentally what the referendum is about. The rest is just noise and deliberate distraction - although the government are doing it very well. 

Actually their 'arsecake forecast' is that Brexit will leave the UK economy 6% smaller than otherwise by 2030. It's at the pessimistic end of a range of forecasts, the least damaging of which is NIESR who forecast a Brexit economy would be 2.25% smaller than otherwise in 2030. Nobody at all thinks the country would be better off following Brexit. 

[blandy]

12 hours ago, Awol said:

Sorry Pete but I can't make sense of this paragraph. TTIP is an EU/US treaty. If we leave the EU then UK is excluded from TTIP, a fact reinforced by Obama. How can we then be worse off in that regard? . 

Chris answers that question in his post just beneath yours.

 

12 hours ago, Awol said:

 

The big unspoken fear in Brussels and Washington is the broader unhappiness in EU countries with the project. If (and we won't) the UK leaves, others will start looking to do the same in quick time 

Yes, which is why if we leave the EU including France and Germany would make sure whatever terms we eventually got would be punitive enough to discourage others from leaving. While the likes of France and Germany each do a few percent of their trade with the UK (less than 7%) we do 44% of our trade with the EU. Tariffs would hurt us much more than them and while we'd want none, they'd have a motive to place them on us. As people have said, one of the complaints about the EU is that it's politically driven rather than purely economical.

[tonyh29]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

Chris answers that question in his post just beneath yours.

 

Yes, which is why if we leave the EU including France and Germany would make sure whatever terms we eventually got would be punitive enough to discourage others from leaving. While the likes of France and Germany each do a few percent of their trade with the UK (less than 7%) we do 44% of our trade with the EU. Tariffs would hurt us much more than them and while we'd want none, they'd have a motive to place them on us. As people have said, one of the complaints about the EU is that it's politically driven rather than purely economical.

15 years ago it was 55% so that suggests we have increased trade with other markets as the EU one has shrunk , what is to say outside of the EU we can't expand that 11% growth further ?

you say Germany and France account for less than 7% of their trade but we still account for 21% of the EU's  trade ... If Germany and France want to keep Europe in line I would imagine sabotaging those other nations 14% to prove a point won't go down well  ?

[blandy]

6 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

15 years ago it was 55% so that suggests we have increased trade with other markets as the EU one has shrunk , what is to say outside of the EU we can't expand that 11% growth further ?

you say Germany and France account for less than 7% of their trade but we still account for 21% of the EU's  trade ... If Germany and France want to keep Europe in line I would imagine sabotaging those other nations 14% to prove a point won't go down well  ?

Aside from the ropey maths  that's all fair comment/ question/ speculation. Is there any precedent of germany/ France doing something even though it wouldn't go down well? Obviously if there is not, then it makes your argument stronger, and if there is then it makes it weaker.