The 2015 General Election

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Royal baby due any minute - boost for the Tory vote? Then again, Kate has gone into LABOUR...

 

[snowychap]

...allowing the scots to dictate how we do things in this country.

Which country? The United Kingdom? The union that Cameron et al campaigned to keep last year?

[OutByEaster?]

Party politics is spite.

 

Imagine how much better the country would be if every candidate was an independent; forced to tell us what they believed in so that they can get votes.

 

Miliband never seems to really say anything, and Cameron basically does a thing where he says "Have you got a hole in your face to breathe through? Two legs? So have I! Let's fix this shit!" instead of policy.

 

The papers pick the issues they think are important to them and force them on us, and those issues that might be important to people and that might make a difference to our lives disappear through not being talked about, instead, we get personality, we get people criticising the way the other party leaders look, talk and behave, as if that's what we're really paying them for. 38 of the last 40 American elections have been won by the taller candidate. 

 

It's not about change, in fact, it's the opposite of that, the election is an opportunity to fake choice in order to maintain the status quo, so, in order to foster an environment where it looks like the parties are different, you need antagonism, you need spite. The main parties are like a couple that will be married forever arguing about whether the remote goes on the arm of the sofa or on top of the fire, unimportant differences, amplified through spite.

 

So, in answer to Tony's question, "is Spite enough of a reason to put the other guy in?" 

 

It's the reason both guys exist, it's the reason that either of them gets in in the first place, it's party politics. 

 

 

I think maybe I should have just typed "yes".

[brommy]

Thats actually a good point, but the rest of the country wont forgive labour for lying and allowing the scots to dictate how we do things in this country. The SNP clearly only care about Scotland and no-one else. Sturgeon has not even shyed away from that.

Whilst the SNP will claim to have had an influence on a Labour minority government, Labour know they won't have to budge an inch away from their own manifesto, for two reasons.

Firstly, the SNP will never be forgiven for allowing the Conservatives to govern in place of labour (I suspect the damage would be even worse than the LibDems have suffered for the same act in 2010).

Secondly and only created because Labour are well aware of the first reason, Labour have committed so heavily to NOT pandering to the SNP that if they did they would lose at least a quarter of their support in England.

Should the election result lead to a minority Labour government (although I think another ConDem coalition is more likely), I fully expect the majority of the English media to crucify Labour's reliance on the SNP, and the Scottish media to claim The new UK government will march to the beat of the SNP. It won't be the first time the media have missed the real truth by a mile but I suspect it will be enough to do the damage they want.

[brommy]

Party politics is spite.

 

Imagine how much better the country would be if every candidate was an independent; forced to tell us what they believed in so that they can get votes.

 

Miliband never seems to really say anything, and Cameron basically does a thing where he says "Have you got a hole in your face to breathe through? Two legs? So have I! Let's fix this shit!" instead of policy.

 

The papers pick the issues they think are important to them and force them on us, and those issues that might be important to people and that might make a difference to our lives disappear through not being talked about, instead, we get personality, we get people criticising the way the other party leaders look, talk and behave, as if that's what we're really paying them for. 38 of the last 40 American elections have been won by the taller candidate. 

 

It's not about change, in fact, it's the opposite of that, the election is an opportunity to fake choice in order to maintain the status quo, so, in order to foster an environment where it looks like the parties are different, you need antagonism, you need spite. The main parties are like a couple that will be married forever arguing about whether the remote goes on the arm of the sofa or on top of the fire, unimportant differences, amplified through spite.

 

So, in answer to Tony's question, "is Spite enough of a reason to put the other guy in?" 

 

It's the reason both guys exist, it's the reason that either of them gets in in the first place, it's party politics. 

 

I think maybe I should have just typed "yes".

Hear, hear.

[blandy]

...the rest of the country wont forgive labour for lying and allowing the scots to dictate how we do things in this country. The SNP clearly only care about Scotland and no-one else. Sturgeon has not even shyed away from that.

...they want independence, which ed and david dont want. They will have more say on trident, our tax. Its actually frightening what could happen, them having a say in our taxes

I'm not sure about that, really Dem.

Sure, SNP is a scottish party, but their policies and values are pretty close to labour's. There are differences on mainly 2 areas - Trident and Scottish Independence.

On trident, there will be what around 270 Toriy MPs and 270 Labour - so that's a massive majority of MPs who are in favour of it. Whatever Sturgeon or anyone else says, any vote on it will be won in favour of keeping it.

 

Sturgeon has made a point of saying that SNP policies are the same ones that much of the rest of the UK wants - an end to austerity, a fairer society and all that kind of stuff. She's said that because A) it's true an B.) she's making the point that "being scared of the SNP" is ludicrous - that they're not some kind of mad bunch. They're just a party in a part of the UK that's completely fed up of what Westminster has implemented, when there's a huge opposition in that part of the world to what they've done.

 

You're right I think to say they will probably try and resurrect an independence vote, possibly, though having said it's "once in a generation" last time, the real trigger for such a vote would have to be a major change in our relationship with the EU - the obvious example of that would be a (tory/UKIP) referendum to leave Europe - Scotland doesn't want to leave Europe - so if there was a Yes vote to leave the EU, then it would be right and logical for scotland to say "you're leaving the EU without us wanting to - we want to be in the EU, therefore we're going to go on our own and stay a member, leaving England.

 

The danger, as I see it of the SNP is if the Tories and UKIP get in and form a gov't.

[OutByEaster?]

Aren't we looking at needing more than two parties for a successful coalition?

 

There's a case for even the Conservatives and UKIP and the Lib Dems together not being enough to secure a majority.

[blandy]

Looking at the spread betting odds comes up with some interesting options based on what some bookies are offering / predicting

Tory (289) + LibDem (24) = 313 + DUP (9) + Ukip (5) = 327.

Labour (270) + SNP (48) = 318 + 9 (fringe left parties) = 327.

Though tbh I don't see UKIP getting 5 seats

It's really interesting if something close to that happened.

 

There would then be kind of two paths which could be followed, whichever "side" squeaked control - either they could compromise with each other to settle on a mutually agreed way ahead, and do a responsible Gov't of the nation, or they could bicker and argue "you've no right" and do everything they can to collapse it all and make another election.

 

My bet would be that the right would do the second thing, for sure and the left would probably do the first thing.

 

The reason why I say that is because the UKIP and tory right wingers have already shown that they just won't compromise on their infatuation and obsession with some things. Whether that's leaving the EU, Gay marriage, badgers or foxes.

 

The lefty ones, for all their own internal disagreements don't seem as obsessive about things, and seem more likely to work together.

 

That said the way the various parties are coming up each day with more and more "red lines" and "I won't work with those" we might end up with either side acting to squabble and force another election because they've been so desperately making up promises they can't keep.

[brommy]

Aren't we looking at needing more than two parties for a successful coalition?

 

There's a case for even the Conservatives and UKIP and the Lib Dems together not being enough to secure a majority.

Possibly. It's anyone's guess! Unless something fairly dramatic happens before Thursday, I expect the 'incumbent' factor and relentless media drivel to be enough to steer the Conservatives towards 300 seats. It would then depend on how much damage the LibDem's had suffered for propping up the Conservatives for the past five years. Will the LibDem's manage 25 to 30 seats? If not, will the Conservatives have to bend to a UKIP wish or two? Will Sinn Fein take their seats to force a full requirement of 326 seats?

[Xela]

Bumped into Michael Fabricant this morning while buying some ciabattas. What great hair he has!

 

I realise that is the most middle class thing I have ever typed. 

[chrisp65]

Bumped into Michael Fabricant this morning while buying some ciabattas. What great hair he has!

 

I realise that is the most middle class thing I have ever typed. 

 

I'm hoping you were driving a routemaster at the time?

[smetrov]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the next few days Sturgeon hints that a deal with the Tories isn't totally off the agenda. 

[markavfc40]

 

Aren't we looking at needing more than two parties for a successful coalition?

 

There's a case for even the Conservatives and UKIP and the Lib Dems together not being enough to secure a majority.

Possibly. It's anyone's guess! Unless something fairly dramatic happens before Thursday, I expect the 'incumbent' factor and relentless media drivel to be enough to steer the Conservatives towards 300 seats. It would then depend on how much damage the LibDem's had suffered for propping up the Conservatives for the past five years. Will the LibDem's manage 25 to 30 seats? If not, will the Conservatives have to bend to a UKIP wish or two? Will Sinn Fein take their seats to force a full requirement of 326 seats?

 

 

I can't see the Tories getting to 300 seats. That would mean either the polls are currently way out or in 5 days they will have an unbelievable upturn. I understand what you are saying about the impact of the right wing rags but this isn't 1992 and their influence is nowhere near what it once was thankfully.

I can see the Conservatives getting the most seats possibly as many as 285. Lib Dems will do extremely well to get 30. UKIP will get 2 or 3. Then you have the DUP with around 8. That would be a hell of a coalition for the Lib Dems to agree to go into with the Tories wanting to make some really nasty and savage cuts and alongside UKIP wanting an EU referendum. Lib Dems have already lost a lot of respect. To go into a coalition with the Tories, UKIP and the DUP would likely be the finish of them.

Based on values Labour are still the Lib Dems closet bed fellows.  Unlike 2010 when the Tories and Lib Dems joined together and had 358 seats this time combined it won't even be enough for a majority. In that scenario it would only need a handful of Lib Dem MP's with a conscience to vote against the Government and, unlike the last 5 years, they can have a huge impact and block policies.

Unless the polls are way out or something remarkable happens in the next five days I still see the most likely outcome being a minority Labour government comfortably getting a Queens speech passed with the backing of the left wing mobs and quite possibly the Lib Dems and then governing on a policy by policy basis. How long that will last though is anyone's guess.

Edited May 2, 2015 by markavfc40

[PaulC]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the next few days Sturgeon hints that a deal with the Tories isn't totally off the agenda.

I don't think that will ever happen.

[brommy]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the next few days Sturgeon hints that a deal with the Tories isn't totally off the agenda.

Did you hear her 30 minutes on the individual Question Time the party leaders had on Thursday night?

[markavfc40]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the next few days Sturgeon hints that a deal with the Tories isn't totally off the agenda. 

 

If she does she'd be doing Labour a massive favor. Labour have been saying vote SNP get the Tories. I can't see Sturgeon saying vote SNP and we may get into bed with the Tories.

[PaulC]

"I will work with Ec Milliband to keep David Cameron out of Downing street". They are never going to get into bed with the the tories. It would be like Labour joing forces with UKIP.

[smetrov]

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the next few days Sturgeon hints that a deal with the Tories isn't totally off the agenda.

Did you hear her 30 minutes on the individual Question Time the party leaders had on Thursday night?

 

 

No I didn't.

 

My point is Sturgeon is likely to get the best ever SNP results - but as it stands she looks to be able to do very little with it. If she hints at a deal with the Tories EM's position wouldn't be so strong.  

[markavfc40]

 

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if over the next few days Sturgeon hints that a deal with the Tories isn't totally off the agenda.

Did you hear her 30 minutes on the individual Question Time the party leaders had on Thursday night?

 

 

No I didn't.

 

My point is Sturgeon is likely to get the best ever SNP results - but as it stands she looks to be able to do very little with it. If she hints at a deal with the Tories EM's position wouldn't be so strong.  

 

 

Milibands position would be even stronger. It would be music to his ears. It is predominantly Labour voters that are defecting to the SNP. The last thing they would want to hear days before the election is Sturgeon say we may get into bed with the Tories. That x would suddenly find its way back alongside the Labour candidate for many.

Edited May 2, 2015 by markavfc40

[brommy]

The main issue for Labour is that their gains in England will be mostly cancelled out by their losses to the SNP in Scotland.

In 2010:

Con 307

Lab 258

LD 57

Others 28.

My current prediction for 2015:

Con 292

Lab 263

SNP 50

LD 25

UKIP 5

Others 15.