TomC

After 31 years of supporting Villa I've finally made the pilgrimage. Arrived in Brum tonight with the family. We're doing the Villa Park tour tomorrow morning and will be at the match on Saturday. I gave up predictions long ago but I'm predicting a 3-1 win in our honour. The thread is locked now, but if any contributors to the 2021-22 Villa Park Pilgrimage thread are reading this, thanks for all the wonderful advice. We've got a lot planned in Brum and the surrounding area for the next four days.

You had me worried there for a second. I'm in Brum making the pilgrimage for the match and I'm flying back to the states on Sunday, so I would have been screwed.

Agreed...I edited my post just before you posted yours...

The Guardian figured out the most common centre back partnership for each club in the PL this season. The good news is that Konsa-Pau is the most successful of the partnerships, winning 7 of 8 for 87.5%. The bad news is that 8 matches together is towards the bottom of the list...three teams have had their most common partnership start only 6 matches, while Arsenal and Everton have had the same partnership for 24 matches. Let's hope to see a health Konsa and Pau at CB for the rest of the season. With Cash hurt, though, we will probably see Konsa at RB. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/27/central-defence-premier-league-arsenal-manchester-united

Scoring is up the past few years... Emi has been here since 2020-21. That year, average goals per game was 2.69, in the typical range for the PL era. But the last three years in a row have set PL-era records. From a previous record of 2.80 in 2011-12, the last three years have been 2.81, 2.82, and this year so far, a record-obliterating 3.24 (highest since 1952-53 in the old league). That helps explain the difference from Bosnich. Not to mention that Bosnich had Paul McGrath in front of him most of his time here. And, while it's not a fair comparison because goalkeepers weren't expected to do such things back then, none of the other candidates have Emi's sweeper-keeper and passing-in-back abilities. Bosnich was good, but I'd still take Emi any day of the week.

Fair enough. He hasn't played all that much, so maybe I just don't appreciate it.

Fortunately, if you've had it before, it comes back much quicker than building it in the first place. It does sound like he's behind Buendia in the process.

Diego Carlos is more of a surprise!

I wouldn't want to predict further out than five years because the situation in European football as a whole is unstable and much could change. But assuming the current system stays in place... We're in a good position to finish in the PL top 8 every year and occasionally in the top 4. Success starts at the top and we have good owners. We have a great manager. We will have our occasional setbacks, but I have no reason to doubt that we will achieve the maximum that our revenue allows us to achieve. The Sky 6 still blow us away in revenue. As long as the current FFP stays in place, that means that, no matter how much NSWE want to put in the club, the Sky 6 can outspend us. FFP was designed to protect the already-big clubs. Unfortunately, in the early PL days, Deadly Doug did not see that things were changing and did not do what was necessary for us to join the elite, even though we were in a position to do so. Manchester City were likely the last club to be able to spend their way in the door with outside-the-game money; the oil money did enough to raise their profile before FFP got strict, and now they're inside the elite and protected. (Not to mention that they are probably circumventing the rules right now, but that's another topic.) Outspending us does not mean outperforming. Manchester United have fallen apart with the Glazers and without Ferguson. Chelsea have fallen apart under Boehly. Spurs have enigmatic leadership. American sport can provide dozens of other examples where wealthy clubs have not been well run. The Sky 6 will make their mistakes and, other than Newcastle, no other club is better positioned to take advantage than we are. That's why I think that it's realistic to challenge for the top 4 on occasion, as we are doing now. Ideally, though, we want to have good leadership and good revenues. How do we increase our revenue? I have never seen a breakdown of revenues for PL clubs by UK vs. the rest of the world, but to speculate: In the UK, we're the biggest club in the second biggest city. Our domestic base is probably solid. My guess is that the Sky 6 are far ahead because of foreign revenue. Most people outside the UK, with no local club to support, are going to gravitate towards the big name clubs. Also, PL prize money and European competition money probably also contribute. We need to build slowly and carefully. Sustained success on the pitch will mean more prize money; it will also improve our exposure abroad, attract more supporters, and attract more revenue. You don't want to overspend or go too fast, which is how Leeds ended up in the wilderness for over a decade and arguably how Everton and Leicester have gotten themselves into trouble. (If I see any dark cloud on the horizon, it's that we may be pushing the FFP limits already.) Keep finishing top 8 and occasionally in the top 4 and we will build our support. It may take 5-10 years to challenge for the title and be a true elite club, but never say never. In short, I'm an optimist tinged with a necessary bit of patience.

The problem with Watkins is that you want your penalties to be hit hard and he really isn't a good driver of the ball. He has succeeded this year because he gets into good positions that enable him to score without power. In past years, when he has tried to drive shots, he has often ended up shooting straight at the keeper.

For me, preferred takers (not necessarily in order) would be Doug, Bailey, Digne, Tielemans, JJ, Diaby, Emi1. I gave more than 5 because some might not be on the pitch at the end. I really like the idea of Emi1. Penalties are a mind game as much as anything. You know he's not going to lose his nerve. The only problem is, if he does miss, he still has a job to do and you would wonder if it would get in his head. I'd rather put him in there if we're kicking second and would put him in 5th round or later. If they weren't injured, Buendia and Kamara would be up there.

If I remember correctly, we ran the 5-3-2/3-5-2 fairly successfully under Brain Little and John Gregory. You can't say Alan Wright and Gary Charles/Fernando Nelson were elite level. That said, it was new to England at the time, so maybe we did well simply because of the novelty. It was Brazil 2002 that really popularized the 5-3-2/3-5-2 with Cafu and Roberto Carlos. Very few teams have players anywhere near that.

According to this calculation, we have the second most difficult run-in... That said, Spurs don't exactly have an easy run-in. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/16/premier-league-teams-toughest-run-ins-arsenal-villa-luton

Except possibly when they're youth players who haven't broken into the first team yet. Then they're the solution to all our problems.

So the remaining teams other than Villa are: Fiorentina (8th place Italy), PAOK (2nd place Greece), Fenerbahce (2nd place Turkey), Viktoria Plzen (3rd place Czechia), Lille (4th place France), Club Brugge (3rd place Belgium), and (going to extra time) either Maccabi Tel Aviv (1st place Israel) or Olympiakos (4th place Greece). A few clubs to be respected, but absolutely nobody who strikes fear in my heart or whom we can’t beat over two legs.

Deserved. Nobody at the club hits the ball harder.

He's made a few mistakes in the final third, but on the whole Duran has been good tonight.

Good effort, bad finish.

Fortunately, it's a slow-paced, cagey European tie. I'd be much more worried if they were a pacy team running at us constantly.

Did you see Doug tell him off after...shouldn't be jumping on someone with a dodgy knee...

Leon didn't miss on his own, defender forced him to shoot wide...

Doesn't look like another ACL injury. I wouldn't risk him the rest of the match though. As big as this match is, we need him in the PL.

ADVANTAGE SPURS... Slightly more talent. One of their best (Maddison) is back from injury, while one of ours (Kamara) is out, one is suspended for 3 matches (McGinn), and several are less than fully fit (especially Pau). (Of course, this could change at any time.) Momentum/confidence is going upward instead of downward. No European distractions. (But who knows how long ours will last.) Slightly better goal difference after today's fiasco. (The red card really cost us in that regard. 2-0 instead of 4-0 and we're still ahead.) Villa are known to bottle it. ADVANTAGE VILLA... More experienced manager who knows the PL better. Still ahead in points. (Their game in hand doesn't mean anything unless they actually win it.) Spurs are known to bottle it. NEUTRAL... Both still have to play Arsenal, Liverpool, and City. So, on the whole, I'd say that Spurs have an advantage, but it could go either way. You can't control injuries, but you can control your temper. If we miss out by 3 points or fewer, the Kamara and McGinn red cards will leave you wondering next summer what could have been.

Fortunately, we've also seen what happens when he does do it.

He's not a terrible player. Don't forget how good he looked at the end of 2021-22 when Konsa was hurt. He lacks pace and has a mistake in him. Ultimately, he's not good enough for where we want to go, but he could play at a lower level PL club.