TomC

Scoring is up the past few years... Emi has been here since 2020-21. That year, average goals per game was 2.69, in the typical range for the PL era. But the last three years in a row have set PL-era records. From a previous record of 2.80 in 2011-12, the last three years have been 2.81, 2.82, and this year so far, a record-obliterating 3.24 (highest since 1952-53 in the old league). That helps explain the difference from Bosnich. Not to mention that Bosnich had Paul McGrath in front of him most of his time here. And, while it's not a fair comparison because goalkeepers weren't expected to do such things back then, none of the other candidates have Emi's sweeper-keeper and passing-in-back abilities. Bosnich was good, but I'd still take Emi any day of the week.

Fair enough. He hasn't played all that much, so maybe I just don't appreciate it.

Fortunately, if you've had it before, it comes back much quicker than building it in the first place. It does sound like he's behind Buendia in the process.

Diego Carlos is more of a surprise!

I wouldn't want to predict further out than five years because the situation in European football as a whole is unstable and much could change. But assuming the current system stays in place... We're in a good position to finish in the PL top 8 every year and occasionally in the top 4. Success starts at the top and we have good owners. We have a great manager. We will have our occasional setbacks, but I have no reason to doubt that we will achieve the maximum that our revenue allows us to achieve. The Sky 6 still blow us away in revenue. As long as the current FFP stays in place, that means that, no matter how much NSWE want to put in the club, the Sky 6 can outspend us. FFP was designed to protect the already-big clubs. Unfortunately, in the early PL days, Deadly Doug did not see that things were changing and did not do what was necessary for us to join the elite, even though we were in a position to do so. Manchester City were likely the last club to be able to spend their way in the door with outside-the-game money; the oil money did enough to raise their profile before FFP got strict, and now they're inside the elite and protected. (Not to mention that they are probably circumventing the rules right now, but that's another topic.) Outspending us does not mean outperforming. Manchester United have fallen apart with the Glazers and without Ferguson. Chelsea have fallen apart under Boehly. Spurs have enigmatic leadership. American sport can provide dozens of other examples where wealthy clubs have not been well run. The Sky 6 will make their mistakes and, other than Newcastle, no other club is better positioned to take advantage than we are. That's why I think that it's realistic to challenge for the top 4 on occasion, as we are doing now. Ideally, though, we want to have good leadership and good revenues. How do we increase our revenue? I have never seen a breakdown of revenues for PL clubs by UK vs. the rest of the world, but to speculate: In the UK, we're the biggest club in the second biggest city. Our domestic base is probably solid. My guess is that the Sky 6 are far ahead because of foreign revenue. Most people outside the UK, with no local club to support, are going to gravitate towards the big name clubs. Also, PL prize money and European competition money probably also contribute. We need to build slowly and carefully. Sustained success on the pitch will mean more prize money; it will also improve our exposure abroad, attract more supporters, and attract more revenue. You don't want to overspend or go too fast, which is how Leeds ended up in the wilderness for over a decade and arguably how Everton and Leicester have gotten themselves into trouble. (If I see any dark cloud on the horizon, it's that we may be pushing the FFP limits already.) Keep finishing top 8 and occasionally in the top 4 and we will build our support. It may take 5-10 years to challenge for the title and be a true elite club, but never say never. In short, I'm an optimist tinged with a necessary bit of patience.

The problem with Watkins is that you want your penalties to be hit hard and he really isn't a good driver of the ball. He has succeeded this year because he gets into good positions that enable him to score without power. In past years, when he has tried to drive shots, he has often ended up shooting straight at the keeper.

For me, preferred takers (not necessarily in order) would be Doug, Bailey, Digne, Tielemans, JJ, Diaby, Emi1. I gave more than 5 because some might not be on the pitch at the end. I really like the idea of Emi1. Penalties are a mind game as much as anything. You know he's not going to lose his nerve. The only problem is, if he does miss, he still has a job to do and you would wonder if it would get in his head. I'd rather put him in there if we're kicking second and would put him in 5th round or later. If they weren't injured, Buendia and Kamara would be up there.

If I remember correctly, we ran the 5-3-2/3-5-2 fairly successfully under Brain Little and John Gregory. You can't say Alan Wright and Gary Charles/Fernando Nelson were elite level. That said, it was new to England at the time, so maybe we did well simply because of the novelty. It was Brazil 2002 that really popularized the 5-3-2/3-5-2 with Cafu and Roberto Carlos. Very few teams have players anywhere near that.

According to this calculation, we have the second most difficult run-in... That said, Spurs don't exactly have an easy run-in. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/mar/16/premier-league-teams-toughest-run-ins-arsenal-villa-luton

Except possibly when they're youth players who haven't broken into the first team yet. Then they're the solution to all our problems.

So the remaining teams other than Villa are: Fiorentina (8th place Italy), PAOK (2nd place Greece), Fenerbahce (2nd place Turkey), Viktoria Plzen (3rd place Czechia), Lille (4th place France), Club Brugge (3rd place Belgium), and (going to extra time) either Maccabi Tel Aviv (1st place Israel) or Olympiakos (4th place Greece). A few clubs to be respected, but absolutely nobody who strikes fear in my heart or whom we can’t beat over two legs.

Deserved. Nobody at the club hits the ball harder.

He's made a few mistakes in the final third, but on the whole Duran has been good tonight.

Good effort, bad finish.

Fortunately, it's a slow-paced, cagey European tie. I'd be much more worried if they were a pacy team running at us constantly.

Did you see Doug tell him off after...shouldn't be jumping on someone with a dodgy knee...

Leon didn't miss on his own, defender forced him to shoot wide...

Doesn't look like another ACL injury. I wouldn't risk him the rest of the match though. As big as this match is, we need him in the PL.

ADVANTAGE SPURS... Slightly more talent. One of their best (Maddison) is back from injury, while one of ours (Kamara) is out, one is suspended for 3 matches (McGinn), and several are less than fully fit (especially Pau). (Of course, this could change at any time.) Momentum/confidence is going upward instead of downward. No European distractions. (But who knows how long ours will last.) Slightly better goal difference after today's fiasco. (The red card really cost us in that regard. 2-0 instead of 4-0 and we're still ahead.) Villa are known to bottle it. ADVANTAGE VILLA... More experienced manager who knows the PL better. Still ahead in points. (Their game in hand doesn't mean anything unless they actually win it.) Spurs are known to bottle it. NEUTRAL... Both still have to play Arsenal, Liverpool, and City. So, on the whole, I'd say that Spurs have an advantage, but it could go either way. You can't control injuries, but you can control your temper. If we miss out by 3 points or fewer, the Kamara and McGinn red cards will leave you wondering next summer what could have been.

Fortunately, we've also seen what happens when he does do it.

He's not a terrible player. Don't forget how good he looked at the end of 2021-22 when Konsa was hurt. He lacks pace and has a mistake in him. Ultimately, he's not good enough for where we want to go, but he could play at a lower level PL club.

Fortunately we're in a race with the real Spurs.

I'd like to dream, but even NSWE were willing to pay what it will take to get Mbappé, I doubt that we could do it within FFP rules. So instead, my dream is that we qualify for the CL, make it to the final against the club where he lands, and Emi denies him another major title. I bet that television would not show any award presentation to Emi afterwards.

I don't care what their momentum is now. They have 13 matches to go. That's a long time to keep up momentum. If they were good enough to maintain it that long, they'd be challenging City for the title instead. Look at their goal difference. They really shouldn't be as high up the table as they are. They could easily go lose 3 in a row. Don't be scared by the name on the shirt. Without Alex Ferguson, they're nothing special.

I'm going to try a tactical interpretation of the past few months... About two months into the season, most of the league had wised up to the way we use the double pivot and play from the back. A common counter-tactic was to cut off the lanes from the back line to the double pivot by essentially man-marking Doug and Kamara, hoping to force us to advance wide and then trap us there. Pau helps us avoid this. Cut off the double pivot and he'll run up the middle with the ball himself. Either one of Doug's or Kamara's markers has to challenge Pau, freeing Doug or Kamara, or you have to commit another player to the press, freeing up space up the pitch which Pau can exploit with a pass. When Pau got injured against Brentford, we lost this ability. What followed were arguably the matches that were the death blow to our title challenge, the draw with Sheffield United and the loss to Man Utd. I don't remember the Sheffield Utd match well enough to say exactly what they did against us tactically, but Man Utd exploited his absence brilliantly in the second half, albeit they handled the double pivot slightly differently than usual...with Kamara out, rather than blocking the lanes to both pivots, they allowed the pass into Donck, then cut off any switch of the field and pressed him, knowing that his skill with the ball was not up to escaping consistently. We all blamed the loss of Kamara at the time, but looking back, you wonder if we could have avoided trouble if Pau had been there to advance the ball. It's the absence of both of them that was fatal. I would like to see Unai tweak the double pivot a bit so we are not so dependent on Pau. Maybe allow one of them to drift wide from time to time...I'll use our left side to demonstrate what I mean. If Doug drifts left, his marker has to follow to avoid allowing a wide overload. That would allow Pau more space if he's playing, but it would also instead allow the forward midfielder on that side, i.e. JJ or McGinn, to drop back and exploit the space. If a deeper marker follows him, then Doug or Moreno can cut in and exploit that space McGinn or JJ vacated. A little variety to keep the other team guessing.