ye you are right i think.
The worst case scenario now imo, is Red Bull get a slap on the wrist/fine only, then the rules are tightened and any future breaches by anyone is come down on hard.
Thats terrible imo, as then Red Bull will have had all the benefits of breaking the rules, with limited/if any come back, where as all others in the future wont be allowed to do the same.
It would be completely unfair.
I think maybe, and im just spit balling, if Red Bull "only" get a fine/slap on the wrist, all other teams next season should be given the same monetary value that Red Bull have overspent by, to add to their development budget so they can do development over and above the norm, it still wont be fair as Red Bull still have the early development from overspend, but its better than nothing.
If Red Bull get away with this, it will call the sports fairness in to question imo.
I have a feeling Red Bull will get away with it though, and if they do the cry of "F1 is corrupt" will be a fair comment.
The only thing that i think might lead to something, is that Ferrari are on the good side of the fence with this one (after some dodgy stuff over recent years), and Ferrari are probably the most powerful team politically (in terms of participation value to F1 as a business model), so if they cry foul, maybe...maybe, something could happen.