The teams at the bottom, for me, are not as bad as we've seen in previous years. This lot are all capable of scraping points out of nowhere. Take Stoke and Fulham for example, both took points off Man United whereas we'll just donate the annual three points to the mancs.
It's already been said that we've only taken 9 points from the last 12 games. Despite having a relatively easy looking run in, I still think we're going to be in the thick of the battle. I thought we'd be OK but the last three games have changed my mind.
If we lose against Newcastle and then fail to take more than 4 points from the next 5 games, which is very possible, that's going to leave us needing approximately 8 points from the last 6 games, or, if you assume we lose at Spurs on the last day, 8 points from the penultimate 15. That's to reach 40 points of course, which may not be needed anyway. But, if that is the magic figure this year, it might prove to be too much.
I personally hope that Vlaar can stay fit enough to play. Without him we're going to need to score at least 1, maybe 2,in each game just to have a chance.