CVByrne

Same but with 5 game and 19 game averages

I decided to look at the 7 game average xG for and against under Gerrard and difference between them. This is where xG and xGA are most useful as removes individual variations. As if we create more goal scoring chances than we concede we should win more games over a season. We've shown progress that's for sure and I really think the "bad luck" / "individual errors" are the reason we have not got the points we've deserved over the course of his time as head coach xG xGA Diff 0.94 1.34 -0.40 1.01 1.36 -0.34 1.24 1.37 -0.13 1.20 1.43 -0.23 1.17 1.50 -0.33 1.17 1.21 -0.04 1.11 1.30 -0.19 1.20 0.99 0.21 1.41 1.01 0.40 1.33 0.90 0.43 1.39 0.90 0.49 1.19 0.81 0.37 1.43 0.91 0.51 1.47 0.90 0.57 1.39 0.87 0.51 1.33 0.84 0.49 1.39 1.06 0.33 1.40 1.14 0.26 1.49 1.14 0.34 1.37 1.20 0.17

I think if I read between the lines. Gerrard seems confident we have a free signing lined up. So hopefully we have one lined up. I think Hause will go on loan as he's only just signed a new contract. Loaning players out to play regular football while receiving a loan fee is the best way to move talented players on. Hause is a PL level CB and a season on loan with a club like Fulham would show that. Think of Davis if we had sold last summer vs this summer

I did read on the Athletic that Villa players are paid bonuses for every place above 14th they finish in the league. So one imagines a large chink of the 2.2m per place would go to the players. So ending exactly 14th probably doesn't cost us a huge amount in lost profits vs 11th.

he only thing we have to go on is his atrocious pass completion % from his 6 short passes and 10 medium per game

Please read pages 63/64/65 from the Ramsey thread. People writing him off at the end of his first season. We all said he then needed to go on loan this season. He won players player of the season and young player of the season. Remember he had a loan the season prior to last season. He was a year older than Chuk last season too. So people need to just be patient and let him develop

Tarkowski is a very good defender so I'd be ok with us signing him. He has loads of experience. My issue is his non existent passing. He's just another Konsa type player basically Kamara is class I feel, he will be a great signing if we call pull it off. I feel Bissouma and Phillips will go to clubs further up the table. So we'll be on 4th/5th choice CDMs if we don't get Kamara

By sounds of it, we want to get one free transfer in so the funds can be used for the other roles. Which makes a lot of sense. I think we've Suarez, Kamara and Tarkowski. It's also why we went after Ginter too. We'll then have our list of players for those positions who are under contract too and if we fail to land the position on a free we'll pursue the list

I think he's the better option from the 10s to drop deep into midfield when we have possession. He protects the ball very well like Luiz and has a very good range of passing.

I think Luiz and Sanson will be leaving and we need to sign a 6 and an 6/8 player. Add to Chuk + Naka then we're sorted in midfield.

McGinn is a bizzare one where it seems everyone outside Villa fans laud him and think he is brilliant. As do his two managers Smith and Gerrard. Whoscored have him by far our best player this season in ratings too.

McGinn is an attacking player who's had to do some more defensive roles this season in helping Luiz out. IF you look at McGinns stats he is one of the best players in the top 5 leagues at shot creating actions, expected assists, goals etc.. he's very good going forward. He's also very good with his long passes and their accuracy. Look at his assist yesterday. He does have poor short pass accuracy and rarely attempts them relative to other central midfielders. It's an issue when we are using him deeper to build play.

I think if we have two things we'll see better output from Coutinho and Buendia in 10. Those are the full backs posing a serious threat (which they now do) and the 8s more involved in attack (which requires the right CDM). I also think we should think about swapping sides for McGinn and JJ so they can whip in crosses. If we do that and learn more pass and move work I think we can score a lot more goals. I think JJ, Coutinho & Buendia have the close control and are good finishers that they can be scoring. McGinn is a good finisher too. If we had the Suarez of last season in there we could see a big improvement in goals.

I agree with a lot of this. I think Gerrard has a style he wants to play, a way he see's the game. I think that's important to take us forward. These types of managers need time with their players for this to bed in. Some of the current squad are up to speed on this now. I criticised the ultra attacking fullbacks at points earlier this year but I think Gerrard and his team should be happy with the output from Digne and Cash. We look a threat from them in wide areas. The threat they now pose will be scouted by opposing managers and that means extra space centrally will become available for the two 10s system. I also think JJ and McGinn have learnt well too about what the 8 roles in the system are. The defensive responsibility to cover for their full backs. People often criticise McGinn but he is a player who is getting specific instructions from Gerrard for certain games and thus is one of those "glue" midfielders who sacrifice themselves for the team. I think he's one of the on pitch leaders too. JJ / Luiz are quite in there. I think we just need an improvement on Sanson in the 8 position to come in and bring the real competition for places there which will push JJ / McGinn on. I think Mings has been good under Gerrard too. He's taken on a lot in a short space of time. Taking the responsibility to play out from the back. He's also had Konsa being out of form this season to contend with and Martinez too I think has had a poor season when compared to last season. He's also had a good attacking output and I think his number of mistakes is reduced vs under Smith. The lack of a CDM has also left out CBs exposed in transitional play too often this season. What hasn't worked is our chance creation. We are 13th in xG stat since Gerrard has taken over. We've scored more than our xG by 4.32. xG I think is a really good stat to measure the high quality chances a team create over a season (or 26 games in this sample). A big reason for that is the two 10 system where it provides a big defensive advantage with blocking central areas out of possession but it hasn't created the chances and we don't have a lethal finisher in Watkins who can score in those tight spaces and Ings hasn't been firing in front of goal as of late. When we've played with the two CFs we've created a lot more chances (we're 7th in xG since the Brighton game we went two up top in) We've also failed to get the balance in midfield, the midfield 3 and also in the two 10 spots. The lack of a top class CDM is the problem we all know. But how the front three can work with two 10s is still unclear to me. I just can't think of a set up that provides balance there without the level of passing and movement we see from the top sides. One of the 10s being a 10+ goals a season player able to switch to CF or 10 in game. Bailey I was hoping might be able to do that. Who knows. The final issue is the errors. They're so costly and they're spread throughout the team. I agree with Gerrard we lack the characters and winning mentality to not let setbacks affect us and to recover from them. I do think quality attacking play takes time to develop and a pre season will hopefully help a lot here. Yes we've ended 14th this season but only 3 or 4 points more would have us in top half. I do feel we've had more bad luck than good and if we'd had rub of the green a little more we'd be further up the table. We've been competitive in every game this season which has to be pleasing, even the 4-0 loss to spurs. I am anxious as the success of this team next season relies so much on recruitment this summer. The managers like Gerrard who have a way they see the game and want to play need the recruitment to bring in players who fit the system. Targett for example would never have worked in this system. Digne suits it so well. People just need to look to Klopp and Guardiolas average / poor first seasons in charge to be positive about the strides we can make. I can see 3 / 4 first team players being brought in this summer, adding to Digne / Coutinho that's 50%-60% of our outfield team are Gerrards signings. While we know JJ / Cash are 100% players he is happy with so that's like 80% of his first team are "Gerrard" men. My hope is the right CB and CDM can free up our 8s to get more involved in attacks and provide more of a goal threat vs how we've played this season. For me it really comes down to our recruitment. Big summer ahead

So what way were we setting up in possession last night? From what I saw Luiz dropped into the central CB role and Mings and Chambers split wide of him. On TV I couldn't see how the rest of the team were set up, did we then have a 4 man next line of Digne, JJ, McGinn, Cash? or did one of the 10s drop deeper? Not a game where Burnley were going to press us in possession. I think it was a tweak to the way we set up as a "response" to how Newcastle and Watford packed the central areas to nullify our two 10s. It left space out wide and now we've in form Digne / Cash we can attack from those spaces more, we had more balls direct to wide spaces. Anyone who was at the game shed some light?

The Athletic had an article about it the other week. Said it was £2.2mper place

Jacob Ramsey did very little all of last season to catch the eye and impress. He was 19 last season. Carney is 18

It's 2,2m per place, but we pay out bonuses to players on each place above 14th we end in League

Ending 14th will cost us in the transfer market. We'll never know exactly how but the millions in lost revenue and visually for potential signings.

We're getting better for sure. Hopefully we get the players in we need and start next season well. I'm just gutted we've ended 14th and the financial hit is going to cost us in signings we'll never get to know about

We're 6 points off Wolves in 8th

How Pope saved his header!!

Yep. Financially bad result

22 shots, 9 on target and 71% posession

Played brilliant. Emi brain fart and Pope brilliantcost us