CVByrne

Percy saying there are hopes Konsa will be fit for pre season! sounds promising he might not need surgery

Interesting that Konsa may be fit for Pre season now. Sounds like his knee injury might not need surgery? Also Gomes signing new deal with Liverpool means other CB option needed.

But we were actually shit under Dean without Jack. We were a one trick pony

It was a tough season for so many reasons. Firstly pre-season was interrupted with lots of injuries, players coming back later because of the Euros. You add to that losing Jack. But also the best football we have seen for Villa was Jack and the Ross Barkley output in first half of last season prior to his injury and then Jacks. I think that made us all think we were already a top half side. In reality we weren't a great side. The starting point wasn't great especially when you factor in losing Jack and Barkley. We were averaging nearly 2xG per game during our amazing start to last season because of the two of them, we also had around 1.2 xGA. We got a better idea where we really were in 2021 where our goals scoring average xG dropped to around 1 for the year and defensively we were averaging around xGA of 1.5. This is why our form slumped and Dean got sacked. So Gerrard came into a team the fans believed was a top 10 side based on that Jack/Barkley dynamic in our fast start to last season. When in reality we were the side averaging just over a point a game in 2021 and had average just 0.9 ppg in the 25 games under Deano without Grealish. That is relegation form and would get you 34 points in a season. What Gerrard has done is sorted us out defensively and began to get the team learning his playing style. Our xG and xGA have moved to 1.3 and 1.1 respectively so we're defensively better and we are back in the positive territory so we are playing better under Gerrard than under Dean. He is an improvement. Our problems are highlighted by 5 games since the turn of the year. Brentford, Watford, Wolves, Spurs, Burnley. Three games where we have had the majority of possession and higher xG than opposition yet got just 1 points from all three. Games where we should have won or drawn. That's 10 points on average lost through inability to score enough and individual errors. So the team are doing better under Gerrard. We need to be more clinical in front of goal and create more goal scoring chances. Lack of that top quality CDM has been a big issue in conceding in transition and not freeing up our 8s to get more involved in attack

meh

I think that's the key, he can be cover for left side of defence both FB / CB and is only 22. Seems very sensible as he'll get plenty of game time covering 2 positions.

Exactly, what do fans really expect!! He has a contract which will be the most money he'll ever earn for the rest of his life. He needs to save the money away for his and his families future. Fans expect players to just let their contracts be cancelled the minute they're not wanted anymore. It's ridiculous

Those numbers are old/wrong as Targett signed a new contract last year and is on 65k+ surely. It's not as simple as that maths either. We have received loan fees for AEG and Targett. While in total the majority of the wages for players on loan are covered too.

The thing people forget about the 4 3 2 1 is it's defensive solidity. We've conceded fewer on average and we've lower xGA in that formation vs the 4 3 1 2 (and better than anything under Smith). Now on the balance so far I'd give it to the 4 3 1 2 formation as we carry a better goal threat for a slight drop off in the defensive side. I think 4 2 3 1 will never happen under Gerrard so people calling for it are wasting their time. The one constant this season under Gerrard is the attacking full backs and 3 man midfield with the 8s covering the space behind the full backs. It's now working very well and that's one big positive from the season. I think if we had a proper finisher alongside Watkins we'd do well next season, either Ings getting back into form or a new CF who is clinical with their movement and finishing. A CDM will free our 8s to get more involved in the attacks and both McGinn and Ramsey can score goals, talented from range. Add in pre-season and the winter break pre-season 2. We should be a more refined attacking outfit while improving defensively especially in transition. I think we can make a big leap forward in performances with the right additions and a fit team for pre season.

I'd go 4 3 2 1 Digne Mings Chambers Cash Luiz Nakamba McGinn Coutinho Ramsey Watkins

Probably Relevant here Premier League bonuses: Conte’s £2m for top four and 25% wage cut for Man United squad - The Athletic I assume ours is similar to Brighton, but we only pay out from 14th place or higher. I think this is smart wage management. As if we didn't pay any material bonuses for league placings we would have high salaries that are the same cost to the club regardless of performance related income. For example finishing 8th vs 14th is a £15m difference in club income. That equates to the full years pay of our 3 top earners wages. While if we pay out the majority of league placing prize money to players our financial situation is always stable and reliable and allows players the potential to earn bigger wages. So let's say all 2.2m per place is paid out to players based on game time and league placings from 14th up. 11 players 38 games. So a player who plays 90 mina in all 38 games would get 200k bonus per league placing above 14th. So if we ended 10th that would be £1mil additional bonus for that player. For a top earner who is on £5mil per season that's a big bonus. It's a smart way we do contracts. Very smart.

Premier League bonuses: Conte’s £2m for top four and 25% wage cut for Man United squad - The Athletic So I assume the financial hit of losing out on higher in the League won't be significant as each place is worth 2.2m but with a 20+ playing squad I'd say well over half it would go in player bonuses. So it won't impact our finances too much.

Was there no news conference today for City game? I don't see one on villa site

Interesting read about Tarkowski from last season when Burnley were doing better than this season Player Analysis: James Tarkowski — England’s most overlooked defender | by Chun Hang | Medium I don't buy the argument that the low passing completed % is due to Burnley style of lay where Pope plays balls long from the back. Surely your pass completion % is mostly down to you and a little bit down to the player you pass to. Maybe the passes he does attempt are under pressure? as he'd only get the ball after a defensive action

West Ham bid £31m for him in Sept 2020 which was rejected as Burnley wanted closer to £50mil. So to get him on a free 20 months later looks a good bit of business. Newcastle though will get him as he'd be guaranteed starter for them and paid more than us probably

Percy is the one who linked him to us

Well he's had lots of time off the bench this season I'm sure he'll get more game time next season with 5 subs. Plus we'll hopefully have better runs in the cups too. He's only 18, what's the big rush?

Or Zidane

How are you going to know what his drive and determination is? You want him running around like McGinn or Buendia is it? Because then visually you can see "look at his determination". Drive and determination are seen on the training pitch. Week in week out. The Gym, the extra training. Arriving early.

Comparing to Dean Smiths last season + 11 games of this season. Our form dipped after our bright start. Firstly from Barkley being injured and then Jack. It never recovered. So from the evidence available Gerrard is an improvement on Smith.

Same but with 5 game and 19 game averages

I decided to look at the 7 game average xG for and against under Gerrard and difference between them. This is where xG and xGA are most useful as removes individual variations. As if we create more goal scoring chances than we concede we should win more games over a season. We've shown progress that's for sure and I really think the "bad luck" / "individual errors" are the reason we have not got the points we've deserved over the course of his time as head coach xG xGA Diff 0.94 1.34 -0.40 1.01 1.36 -0.34 1.24 1.37 -0.13 1.20 1.43 -0.23 1.17 1.50 -0.33 1.17 1.21 -0.04 1.11 1.30 -0.19 1.20 0.99 0.21 1.41 1.01 0.40 1.33 0.90 0.43 1.39 0.90 0.49 1.19 0.81 0.37 1.43 0.91 0.51 1.47 0.90 0.57 1.39 0.87 0.51 1.33 0.84 0.49 1.39 1.06 0.33 1.40 1.14 0.26 1.49 1.14 0.34 1.37 1.20 0.17

I think if I read between the lines. Gerrard seems confident we have a free signing lined up. So hopefully we have one lined up. I think Hause will go on loan as he's only just signed a new contract. Loaning players out to play regular football while receiving a loan fee is the best way to move talented players on. Hause is a PL level CB and a season on loan with a club like Fulham would show that. Think of Davis if we had sold last summer vs this summer

I did read on the Athletic that Villa players are paid bonuses for every place above 14th they finish in the league. So one imagines a large chink of the 2.2m per place would go to the players. So ending exactly 14th probably doesn't cost us a huge amount in lost profits vs 11th.

he only thing we have to go on is his atrocious pass completion % from his 6 short passes and 10 medium per game