smetrov Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. 'report' is a bit strong - I think we all know we could go down with 40 points - but only 3 teams in the last 10 years have. A Villa win or a wigan loss on saturday and in all probability we are safe. Youve got to remember that teams at the bottom are there because they have difficulty winning games - I doubt any teams at the bottom will win all there remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 West Ham (fat Sam) should be totally pumped to nail Newcastle on Saturday . Newcastle rarely do well in London and have only won once away all season (guess who). Another caning would be ideal Dunno - I fancy newcastle to win at either west ham or QPR - they should be ok. The thorn in the side for us is our last game is a six pointer. I am hopeful we go all out and beat Norwich and thats job done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. Twaddle. WDL will be 41 which will be more than enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. I smell nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted May 2, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. Sure its possible but the odds are against that happening. if you go with the bookies (you mentioned odds) then norwich are favourites to win at home, chelsea are favourites to win at villa park (very heavy favourites at that) and wigan i think woudl be favourites to win at home against us. so we still have to beat the odds to get otu of this situation unless newcastle totally implode and get no more points. .....what We obviously don't have to 'beat the odds' to stay up, because Newcastle and Wigan are better odds to go down than us. well while you are right about the overall odds, the match by match odds show norwich are favourites at home and chelsea big favourites to beat us at villa park. it also shows newcastle as favourites away to qpr, wigan however are only favourites to beat swansea of their games up to and including arsenal. that would mean a last day decider in pieland. the pie eaters i suspect would be favourites for that game but a draw could be good enough for us to stay up. which makes me think there must be some way to profit on the discrepancy between the outright relegation odds and the game by game prices, if only i had some cash... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamdog Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. Sure its possible but the odds are against that happening. if you go with the bookies (you mentioned odds) then norwich are favourites to win at home, chelsea are favourites to win at villa park (very heavy favourites at that) and wigan i think woudl be favourites to win at home against us. so we still have to beat the odds to get otu of this situation unless newcastle totally implode and get no more points. .....what We obviously don't have to 'beat the odds' to stay up, because Newcastle and Wigan are better odds to go down than us. well while you are right about the overall odds, the match by match odds show norwich are favourites at home and chelsea big favourites to beat us at villa park. it also shows newcastle as favourites away to qpr, wigan however are only favourites to beat swansea of their games up to and including arsenal. that would mean a last day decider in pieland. the pie eaters i suspect would be favourites for that game but a draw could be good enough for us to stay up. which makes me think there must be some way to profit on the discrepancy between the outright relegation odds and the game by game prices, if only i had some cash... That's a good thing. There is no discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romavillan Posted May 2, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted May 2, 2013 by discrepancy i mean the fact that game by game we aren't favourites to get any points and avoid the drop but the outright odds have us as long as 8s. i'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle! being that long is a great thing, we haven't been for ages! i'm just trying to temper the enthusiasm on here after we finally trounced someone at home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raymond Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 We will be 13th after this weekend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. Sure its possible but the odds are against that happening. if you go with the bookies (you mentioned odds) then norwich are favourites to win at home, chelsea are favourites to win at villa park (very heavy favourites at that) and wigan i think woudl be favourites to win at home against us. so we still have to beat the odds to get otu of this situation unless newcastle totally implode and get no more points. Good point! Strange anomaly in the bookmakers odds there. Norwich 7/5 Villa 15/8 Villa 15/4 Chelsea 8/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamdog Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 by discrepancy i mean the fact that game by game we aren't favourites to get any points and avoid the drop but the outright odds have us as long as 8s. i'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle! being that long is a great thing, we haven't been for ages! i'm just trying to temper the enthusiasm on here after we finally trounced someone at home! No arguments there - we've still got a way to go. Football matches being a 3 horse race: (home win, away win, draw) make the probability more tricky. Norwich are 2.55 favourites to beat us (about 39% chance of winning) but that means a Villa win or draw is a 61% chance. I think the West Brom-Wigan game is similarly split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 That would be fine if you looked at the odds of ALL the team's in the relegation battle. The fact of the matter is, we have 37 points, so we could lose all our games (if odds are to be believed) and still stay up. Also, the relegation odds will shift up or down depending on this weekend's results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa-revolution Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. Well, yes its mathematicly possible. Realistically possible? I'll suck a tramps dick if any team with 40 points goes down. Karren Brady doesn't have a dick!...............................Oh! Sorry! I forgot about Pescisolido Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skarroki Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 i have been pretty fair i think in my predictions, giving us a narrow win, newcastle a win, wigan a draw and then saints losing to spurs, sunderland and stoke drawing, which would in fact put us on 40 points and in 13th! i'll take that senario! probably been sub-consciously bias towards villa but got us finishing 12th in the end haha, a loss against chelsea followed by a win at wigan, which will effectively be a home game in the end with the amount of fans i expect to see going up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 i have been pretty fair i think in my predictions, giving us a narrow win, newcastle a win, wigan a draw and then saints losing to spurs, sunderland and stoke drawing, which would in fact put us on 40 points and in 13th! i'll take that senario! probably been sub-consciously bias towards villa but got us finishing 12th in the end haha, a loss against chelsea followed by a win at wigan, which will effectively be a home game in the end with the amount of fans i expect to see going up If we're safe before Wigan then we'll get our 5400 back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Condimentalist Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really hate to report this, but using the BBC's Football Predictor, it's absolutely clear as that Villa could even beat Norwich 0-3 and still get relegated -- with 40 points, no less, as others have rightly pointed out. Things would really have to go against AV in lots of horrible ways, but the scenarios I punched in weren't outlandish. I'm afraid there won't be any real comfort until you guys win two more games. 'report' is a bit strong - I think we all know we could go down with 40 points - but only 3 teams in the last 10 years have. A Villa win or a wigan loss on saturday and in all probability we are safe. Youve got to remember that teams at the bottom are there because they have difficulty winning games - I doubt any teams at the bottom will win all there remaining games. Can't agree. If we don't win on Saturday then in no way can we be considered 'safe', regardless of what Wigan do. It's another massive game and I hope PL has the boys focused and not complacent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 That's why it is must win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 (edited) I think wigan have had it. I think us and newcastle will win and wigan will lose to west brom Edited May 2, 2013 by Rodders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R.Bear Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Great news having Chelsea in the final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Really can't see Newcastle winning at west ham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Reflecting back, it's a real shame gabby was unfit for the fulham home game. If he'd played I think we'd be sat safe now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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