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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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I'm not ready to say I think we'll stay up yet but I do have a lot more confidence in us now - not because we're 3 points better off (although that does help) but because the team showed something yesterday I didn't think they had. Their commitment isn't in question but I honestly believed they would crumble under the pressure of a game as important as that one. To go behind and then come back and go ahead and then hold onto it is something I didn't expect at all.

Edited by Mantis
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I just had a look at the remaining fixtures of the bottom 5 clubs. I had it as this going into the final day:

16th Villa on 33 pts

17th Southampton on 31 pts

18th Wigan on 31 pts

19th QPR on 30 pts

20th Reading on 27 pts

I hope I am wrong and that we're safe already because a final day table like that would probably cause me to have a heart attack!

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Before today's matches, I had these results in the table predictor:

 

 

Everton-Reading  - Everton win

Man U-Norwich - Man U win

Soton-QPR - Soton win

Stoke-West Ham - Stoke win

Sunderland-Fulham - Fulham win

Swansea-NEwcastle - Swansea win

Wigan-Liverpool - Liverpool win

 

This and my predictions for the next matches will give this table the 2nd of April;

 

12 Norwich 35

13 Southampton 31

14 Sunderland 30

15 West Ham 30

16 Newcastle 30

17 Aston Villa 30

18 Wigan 28

19 Reading 23

20 QPR 20

 

Now when QPR won West Ham won and Sunderland drew, I have updated the predictor and get this table:

 

12 Norwich 35

13 West Ham 33

14 Sunderland 31

15 Newcastle 30

16 Aston Villa 30

17 Southampton 28

18 Wigan 28

19 Reading 23

20 QPR 23

 

If we do our job against Reading and QPR we will be fine. If not we will go down anyway, so today's results has so far been very good for us (hope Wigan don't make an upset). And we have yet to play Norwich and Sunderland, who are in the mix as well.

 

Since this post Liverpool has won against Wigan, we have won against Reading, QPR has won against Sunderland and there has been a draw in the Norwich - Southampton match.

 

This means there will be no changes in the point prediction, as I had us getting 3 points yesterday, Norwich and Southampton drawing and I expected a QPR win.

 

Things are looking good, just need the win against QPR to get some breathing space.

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I hope the unplayable version of Benteke is with us next Saturday and violates that QPR defence so that they are totally traumatised for the rest of the season and indeed their lives.

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5 teams on 33 points now. We need to get into that group in the next 4-5 matches. It'd make the world of difference

 

And we have matches against 3 of those 5 teams, plus we have not played Sunderland, who has 30 points. Will be a very interesting spring.

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Is the FA Cup final the week after the final league games? If so and given Wigan's favourable draw in the semi finals if they do make it to the final then maybe some of their players will be distracted when we play them.

 

I've said for a while i thought we'd be okay so as long as we don't lose to QPR i'm sure we will be. I just hope the tension and nerves from the terraces doesn't transcend into the players.

 

For me it's Wigan, Reading and Saints that will drop but if either Reading or Saints could stay up at the expense of Sunderland that would be the icing on the cake.

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5 teams on 33 points now. We need to get into that group in the next 4-5 matches. It'd make the world of difference

The problem we have though is our goal difference is much worse Han those teams,which puts us bottom of that group. 33 won't be enough but I think 37 will be.

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5 teams on 33 points now. We need to get into that group in the next 4-5 matches. It'd make the world of difference

The problem we have though is our goal difference is much worse Han those teams,which puts us bottom of that group. 33 won't be enough but I think 37 will be.

Ah I'm not saying 33 will keep us up, I'm saying if we can break into that group we won't be quite as worried as we are right now, which will rub off on the players hopefully and increase performances a touch

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To break into that group in reality we'd need to beat QPR then Liverpool plus stoke away. Difficult but not impossible.

I think we could get there even if we lost to liverpool. of the 5 teams on 33 right now, there's a fair chance there'll be plenty of defeats for them in the next 4-5 games, we just need to do our thing and hope they can all draw whenever they play each other, or see someone like newcastle pull away by beating all the others

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Things are looking good, 

If I've read it correctly, your imaginary table shows us going into the final few matches just 2 points above the 17th and 18th placed clubs, so saying that things are looking good might be a touch OTT.

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