Syria

[peterms]

I strongly suspect that chemical weapons were used against civilians in one of the few remaining rebel pockets in Damascus, and that to deliver them on a scale necessary to kill hundreds and injure 1000's is beyond the rebels capability - even if they chose to inflict this wound on themselves which seems a dubious proposition at best.

 

I also think that following the Iraq experience neither the US, UK or anyone else will take any action at all until rock solid proof is in the public domain.

 

It would be preferable not to intervene directly in Syria but the use of chemical weapons (and sarin does not compare to WP in Gaza, however revolting the latter may be in isolation) cannot go unchallenged because it invites their wider use.

 

One thing we know about "the rebels" is that they are not a cohesive force.  Even the title is misleading, because it implies they are Syrians who oppose Assad.  It's more like a broad collection of different groups, some Syrian, some not, some Al Queda, almost certainly some Israelis supporting, training, funding, as well as the tactical direct strikes on Syrian forces to support the opposition which we know Israel to be doing.  Saudi and Qatar are funding and arming, and Turkey is delivering record amounts of arms.  No doubt secret US forces are in there as well, as they always are.

 

In that situation, the idea that "the rebels" wouldn't inflict casualties on "themselves" is misplaced.  The local civilians are not part of the opposition, they're bystanders.  For the powerful forces who want to topple Assad, what would it matter if a few hundred Syrians die, if their larger regional aims can be won by bringing the US into the conflict?  They have no compunction about killing identical people in Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and anywhere else.

 

We know that the "rebel" forces have Sarin - they have been caught with it, by Turkey as well as by the Syrian army.  The UN believe they have used it (see the link in the Hitchens army).  The delivery requirement is minimal, in fact the Syrian army's scuds are reported to be too long range for the task, something much smaller and short-range is apparently required.

 

I see nothing in respect of capacity, motive, or self-protection which would make it impossible or even unlikely that this is a false flag operation - though probably not by the local Syrian insurgents, who really would be shitting on their own doorstep.

 

And I still haven't seen a credible explanation, or any explanation, of that Mail story showing the e-mail between directors of a security contractor who had been asked to deliver chemical weapons with Russian-speaking staff in missiles similar to those thought to be used by Assad.

 

But clearly we have moved beyond logic, explanation, and proof.  Our government thinks that it can browbeat opposition by forcing our servile media into line, giving a lot of bluster and hype with no supporting evidence, and moving quickly into a war phase where the niceties of justification will be passe.

[Awol]

Peter your last paragraph is hyperbole. There is a team of UN chemical weapons inspectors at the site now so clearly we haven't moved beyond the need for proof in a rush to war - besides which we wouldn't be going to war anyway.

 

The only Israeli strikes I am aware of were targetting weapons passed by Assad forces to HZ and were being moved into Lebanon - for future use against Israel. As for the Mail story, well you may have a long wait given their propensity for making things up.

 

Regarding capacity/capability, the delivery requirement is not minimal at all and to spread the agent over an area wide enough to affect so many people requires specialist munitions and in sufficient volume. There is no evidence that the rebels (of whichever group) have that capability but we know that Assad does.

 

I'd wait to see exactly what evidence is presented in the next few days before pinning your colours to the 'false flag' mast.

[AVFCforever1991]

If Assad falls, what happens to the Christians, Shias, and majority moderate sunnis, if the extremist come in to power?

Edited August 26, 2013 by AVFCforever1991

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

The extremists wont come into power. Israel wont allow a Saudi/Iran backed government on their doorstep.

Edited August 26, 2013 by CarewsEyebrowDesigner

[AVFCforever1991]

Damascus is pro govt and government controlled territory. There is no sense for the regime to use chemical weapons there.

Edited August 26, 2013 by AVFCforever1991

[maqroll]

Listening to John Kerry's press conference, it seems a certainty that there will be strategic bombing. Give it a week. He'll wait for the Arab League to sign off on it, and then it'll be bombs away

[Awol]

The extremists wont come into power. Israel wont allow a Saudi/Iran backed government on their doorstep.

Assad's regime is an Iranian client state now, the Israeli's haven't tried to change that, yet they and Saudi cooperate on anti-Iranian efforts elsewhere.

 

Similarly Iran have troops fighting Saudi backed Sunni rebels in Syria, but finance and support AQAP in Yemen.

 

This stuff is not consistent or neat and doesn't fit into comforting boxes or sound bites - which isn't a dig at you CED, just an observation this thread would benefit from.

[PauloBarnesi]

I thought Tony Blair was a special envoy to this area? Is he doing anything?

[peterms]

I thought Tony Blair was a special envoy to this area? Is he doing anything?

 

Yes, he's pontificating.  Urging war.

 

Anything Blair has to say should be said from the dock of the war crimes court in the Hague.

[AVFCforever1991]

I thought Tony Blair was a special envoy to this area? Is he doing anything?

 

[peterms]

Peter your last paragraph is hyperbole.

No, it really isn't. If you listen to the Kerry comments which Maqroll mentions, it's all emotion and bluster, zero hard facts or evidence. They are appealing to the US public (which polls show is 60-9 against involvement) on emotional grounds. They are making the case on emotional grounds, not based on logic and reason. They haven't even shown that Assad is responsible, but they have moved beyond that, hoping that by repeated assertion that "it must be him", they can bypass the stage of proof altogether. That would be unacceptable on a charge of shoplifting or a parking offence, never mind launching cruise missiles.

And yes, our media have got into line very quickly, repeating unattributable briefings as fact, stating things like "the evidence is mounting very quickly" (a phrase we've heard in several places) without ever quoting or demonstrating this "evidence". No doubt strenuous efforts are under way to produce some "evidence" after the event. But we've been here before, and we know that the "evidence" for Iraq was fabricated. They lied to us then, they will lie to us now. Iraq should make the media require very compelling evidence, backed by independent and incontrovertible sources, yet they have simply fallen into line and are parrotting briefings as fact. Shameful.

 

There is a team of UN chemical weapons inspectors at the site now so clearly we haven't moved beyond the need for proof in a rush to war - besides which we wouldn't be going to war anyway.

 

The only Israeli strikes I am aware of were targetting weapons passed by Assad forces to HZ and were being moved into Lebanon - for future use against Israel. As for the Mail story, well you may have a long wait given their propensity for making things up.

The UN inspection will not be material. It was hampered by being attacked, cutting short the time it could spend. All preparations are proceeding regardless. If the UN comes back with something saying that some form of chemical was used (as it seems to have been), what then? Their mandate precludes examining who did it, which is the central point. The US will simply assert that "it must have been" Assad. This inspection will have no bearing on the outcome.

Israel has not only been striking at supplies. They have been harrying Syrian forces which were engaging the rebels, as well as supplying the rebels and giving them medical treatment. The Israelis are in Washington, planning the offensive. No doubt their forces are working closely with the US on the ground, as always. And they are already giving financial inducements to US companies, by (incredibly) giving oil rights in Syria to a company linked with Cheney. That is simply breathtaking in its cynicism and effrontery, as well as illegality.

On the Mail story, if it is made up, and the e-mail forged, then why have we not heard as much? When information like this is suppressed instead of being disproved and exposed as false, then it is more than reasonable to think that it is likely to be true but inconvenient.

 

Regarding capacity/capability, the delivery requirement is not minimal at all and to spread the agent over an area wide enough to affect so many people requires specialist munitions and in sufficient volume. There is no evidence that the rebels (of whichever group) have that capability but we know that Assad does.

 

I'd wait to see exactly what evidence is presented in the next few days before pinning your colours to the 'false flag' mast.

A hundred years ago, the first chemical weapons were used (with very serious consequences) by being released into a breeze. The delivery requirement was almost zero. More recently, Sarin was released in the Tokyo underground, again with zero "delivery requirement". In Damascus, there are photos of what we are told are the missiles used to deliver the chemical weapons, which are small, still intact, and of a size capable of being launched from the back of a truck.

To think that such capability is beyond the opposition forces, with their active support from Israel, the US, Al Qaeda, Saudi, Qatar and Turkey, is simply not credible.

[peterms]

Qatar wants Assad to fall partly because it wishes to run a gas pipeline through Syria, for profit. But that would undermine Russian gas sales. That's one of the things behind Russian support for Syria, along with the naval base.

So up steps Good Price Bandar, the US-trained Saudi fixer and intelligence chief, to sort things out.

He is reported to have offered Russia security for its oil and gas contracts, continued use of their Syrian navy base, and peace at the Winter Olympics - otherwise the Chechyn rebels which Saudi claims to control, may get a little lively.

[PauloBarnesi]

Price or Prince?

[Eames]

I can't see any UK government getting support or a mandate for this.

We have had forces tied to Afghan and Iraq for a decade now with seemingly little or no benefit to the national interest. This is a Middle East problem that the Middle East should resolve itself. Where are the Omani's, Qataris, Saudis? and what are they doing about this shit?

[peterms]

Price or Prince?

Every prince has his price.

[Ikantcpell]

If Assad falls, what happens to the Christians, Shias, and majority moderate sunnis, if the extremist come in to power?

 

 

A guy i know is a christian from iraq according to him evrything was fine in iraq until the americans invaded, he and his family had a gold store in southern iraq and as soon as the americans came the muslims beat up his family really bad and took evrything they owned and threted to kill them if they didnt leave iraq, alot of christians they didnt ask to leave, they just killed them straight away just for having the wrong religion.

 

Then i asked why the americans couldnt protect him and he told me it was very difficult..evrybody had respect for saddam but not many has respect for the americans.

[Kiwivillan]

The idea that Assad issued a chemical weapons attack makes zero sense. Any opinion piece I've seen that tries to legitimize this theory seems to be making tautological arguments. "He must have lost his patience therefore he did it".

[AshVilla]

You have to look at the bigger picture

 

It is not Assad who is desperate enough to use chemical weapons by the looks of things his troops are regaining territory on a daily basis with help from Hezbollah fighters

 

If your winning the battle why use a WMD and invite external pressure from the likes of the UN there is no need it makes no sense

 

If anything it is the rebels who are desperate.

Edited August 27, 2013 by AshVilla

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Let me explain to you how this works: you see, the corporations finance Team America, and then Team America goes out... and the corporations sit there in their... in their corporation buildings, and... and, and see, they're all corporation-y... and they make money.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

The Associated Press ‏@AP 6m

BREAKING: Arab League says Syrian government to blame for chemical weapons attack that killed hundreds