VILLAFC2000 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Any one know when the next growth figures are...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Any one know when the next growth figures are...? Poverty or Unemployment ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CI Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The vast majority of leading economists polled by the BBC believe recession will return to Europe next year. One fifth said the eurozone would not exist in its current 17-member form, while the majority put the possibility of a eurozone break-up at 30%-40%. The poll also found that most economists expect UK interest rates to remain at 0.5% throughout next year. It was conducted among 34 UK and European economists who regularly advise the Bank of England. Of the 27 who responded, 25 forecast recession for Europe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 The vast majority of leading economists polled by the BBC believe recession will return to Europe next year. ... It was conducted among 34 UK and European economists who regularly advise the Bank of England. As soon as the 'vast majority' of economists start forecasting something, we should begin to question it happening. When we learn that they regularly advise the BoE, we should certainly do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Question... Do leading economists even exist, if you are a leader in that field surely you make a billion and leave it. "Leading" comes across as "knows what's around the corner". If that is so and they are so great why don't they re mortgage all they own and play the market ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieB Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Zerohedge published an interesting graph on debt distribution before the holidays. The UK's debt is now 950% of our GDP! Why is the financial debt of the United Kingdom so huge? Well the fact is the The City of London has much slacker banking regulation than Wall Street and other financial centres and this has been known and well used by every investment bank around the globe who use these regulatory loop holes to process transactions. Whereby under their own regulator's rules - restrictions would apply - in their London offices it's open season. MF Global, AIG and Mr Madoff made full use of this in particular, processing Billons of dollars/£s via the City of London. All over the globe lenders lend out money, against an asset deposited as collateral. Nothing wrong with you that might say, it's how a capitalist economy works. Agreed and even though the owner of the asset retains that ownership, the lender can use that legal charge over that asset as security to borrow against or reassign the debt to someone else. It's called hypothecation and then re-hypothecation. What has happened is that these debts secured on debts have then been reassisgned so many times that the value becomes in some cases far more than the asset the original debt was secured on. What's more it's perfectly legal to do this. However in most places like the US, there are strict limits on how much can be re-hypothecised against the original value of the debt securitisation. On Wall Street the limit is 140% times. However in the City of London, NO such regulatory limit exists, therefore Investment banks process these deals through their London offices deliberately so that these re-hypothication values become ridiculous values much higher than the actual original debt. It's one BIG plug that's never been stopped up, not even after Lehman Bros crashed in 2008. Since the bail outs, thank you very much, it's been very much business as usual. It's also perfectly legal to hide some of these activities as off balance sheet trading, because asset values are very much a matter of opinion. Hence why the ratings agencies got it so spectacularly wrong also. Complicated isn't it... so complicated infact that we now see why bankers have found it so easy to fool the auditing firms into over inflating their balance sheets, on which they've been of course paid over inflated bonuses. Balance sheet assets which actually no longer reflect the actual collateral behind them. Of course when asset values are spiralling upwards like in housing price booms, it's easy to hide this inbalance because the asset is always increasing to counteract it. However as we see with the case recently of MF Global, when things go belly up, everyone loses out to a massive amount, requiring bail outs by taxpayers across the globe or if not investors/shareholders losing out. No wonder David Cameron had to say NO to European deal to stop the European Central Bank bringing about some regulatory sense to the City of London. It's not hard to work out the REAL reason the UK refused to go along with the Eurozone debt crisis solution. Does anyone think that the likes of Goldman Sachs et al will allow their wings to be clipped like that anytime soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieB Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Kaiser Report on You tube: MF Global - How to have your cake and eat it and then eat someone else's - Rehypothication of debts. The interview towards the end with Reggie Middleton from Boombustblog.com is priceless. "When you see a cockroach you know there's more" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieB Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This one I partcularly like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Why is the financial debt of the United Kingdom so huge? Well the fact is the The City of London has much slacker banking regulation than Wall Street and other financial centres and this has been known and well used by every investment bank around the globe who use these regulatory loop holes to process transactions. Whereby under their own regulator's rules - restrictions would apply - in their London offices it's open season. MF Global, AIG and Mr Madoff made full use of this in particular, processing Billons of dollars/£s via the City of London. Doesn't that graph suggest that the 'financial debt' is about the same in the UK, the US and Japan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieB Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Doesn't that graph suggest that the 'financial debt' is about the same in the UK, the US and Japan? How can you say that? The green bit the financial sector debt is far more in proportion to the other sectors, whereas in the case of US & Japan it's less or only marginally more. The UK's financial sector debt as a % of our GDP is also massive compared to other countries on the graph. Hardly surprising because when RBS bought out ABN Ambro their balance sheet was almost as big as UK PLC and the ensuing bail out was enormous. The whole system is corrupt from top to bottom. If you watch Kaiser & Stacy Herbert on "breastfeeding the bankers" J P Morgan Stanley actually pressured a change in the bankruptcy rules in the US to minimise their losses after the collapse of MF Global by moving up the queue of creditors to be paid out from bankruptcy assets...to the detriment of innocent customers. JUST like in the case of David Cameron these investment bankers are manipulating politicians and legislators for their own ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 1, 2012 Moderator Share Posted January 1, 2012 No, it doesn't, snowy (unless I've read it wrong) - Uk is larger in both percentage of GDP and in actual value terms. rough calcs for financial sector debt UK: 6 x 2.24 = 14.8 trillion dollars US: 0.8 x 14.58 = 11.7 trillion dollars Japan: 1.6 x 5.5 = 8.8 trillion dollars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Doesn't that graph suggest that the 'financial debt' is about the same in the UK, the US and Japan? How can you say that? The green bit the financial sector debt is far more in proportion to the other sectors, whereas in the case of US & Japan it's less or only marginally more. Because it's a graph representing the debt of the various sectors relative to the various countries' GDP and not a graph comparing the financial debt in various countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 No, it doesn't, snowy (unless I've read it wrong) - Uk is larger in both percentage of GDP and in actual value terms. rough calcs for financial sector debt UK: 6 x 2.24 = 14.8 trillion dollars US: 0.8 x 14.58 = 11.7 trillion dollars Japan: 1.6 x 5.5 = 8.8 trillion dollars I have to admit that I'm a little blurry eyed today but the Japan proportion looked a little higher. Take out Japan if you wish and the UK and the US nominal values are not too dissimilar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VILLAFC2000 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 It says a lot about this Coalitition when the celebrity audinece in Jules Holland rips into the Coalition it really does. Nick Clegg mark my words your days are numbers - You have single handily destroyed the ethical and morale duties of your party for your own Ego, greed and self worth - why dont you do everyone a favor and join the Tories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The graph also illustrates the relatively high level of Japanese public debt as a % of GDP, relative to other countries. Richard Koo explains in a recent paper that Japan has undertaken fiscal stimulus at various times to counter the depressive effects of its economic stagnation (apart from a couple of periods when the deficit hawks won an ill-advised change in policy) and that because of this, demand in Japan has been held at a higher level than would otherwise have been the case - staving off a big recession, in other words. In discussing the Morgan Stanley graph, Steve Keen also shows how the various sectors' debt has changed over the last 20 years. It shows that while public debt hardly changed until the 2008 crisis, private debt increased significantly, with the finance sector share of this increasing extremely fast. His conclusion from this is that the approaching problem may be proportionately greater for the UK, because as this debt reduces, so does demand: All this implies that when a debt slowdown hits the UK, it could do so with even more impact than it did in the USA. As I’ve argued extensively elsewhere, aggregate demand in a credit-based economy is income plus the change in debt. This perspective puts the UK’s staggering dependence upon private debt into sharp relief; explains why—as yet—it hasn’t suffered as sharp a downturn as has the USA; and also implies that that day of reckoning may be approaching. Which is why a Japan-style fiscal policy of increasing government spending will be required. And yet we are doing the exact opposite. ...public debt is not the problem, and attempting to reduce public debt now is the wrong policy—from my perspective, because it would add public sector deleveraging to private sector deleveraging, thus exacerbating the underlying problem of deleveraging... ...another period of deleveraging has just begun in the UK, whereas the rate of decline of debt has slowed in the USA. Things aren’t looking rosy for 2012 in the USA, but they could be far worse in the UK... ...Add to this private sector deleveraging a government committed to a deluded program of “expansionary fiscal consolidation“, and the indications are that the UK will be a leader in the global recession stakes in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieB Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 That's really the problem - by cutting public expenditure to become supposedly more fiscally sound, governments are actually fuelling the recesssion. Whereas surely the crux of the problem is that they should be concentrating more on removing the RISK levels that so nearly brought the whole global financial system crashing down. Many forecasters are predicting a collapse in the multi trillion $ derivative trading market and I agree. At some stage people are going to come to their senses and realise that this whole market is basically based on ZERO assets and just exists in order to pay so called "clever" risk takers billions in bonuses. It's just a question of when that collapse is going to happen. When you lift the carpet and catch sight of a cockroach like MF Global then you know there's more! As Kaiser says breastfeeding the bankers with quantative easing can't go on indefinitely and at some point the baby has to either grow up or be thrown out with the bathwater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 1, 2012 Moderator Share Posted January 1, 2012 No, it doesn't, snowy (unless I've read it wrong) - Uk is larger in both percentage of GDP and in actual value terms. rough calcs for financial sector debt UK: 6 x 2.24 = 14.8 trillion dollars US: 0.8 x 14.58 = 11.7 trillion dollars Japan: 1.6 x 5.5 = 8.8 trillion dollars I have to admit that I'm a little blurry eyed today but the Japan proportion looked a little higher. Take out Japan if you wish and the UK and the US nominal values are not too dissimilar. Me too, but even in these times, 3 trillion dollars (more finance sector debt for the UK, than the US) is quite a lot of money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ads Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 1500 jobs being created by Jaguary Land Rover in the North West, so a bit of good news there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meregreen Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 1500 jobs being created by Jaguary Land Rover in the North West, so a bit of good news there. Most likely either short term contracts or agency hire em and fire em posts. Halewood have already started dumping agency people. 50 on Christmas eve, how about that for a caring company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinker Posted January 3, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 3, 2012 They are all agency hire staff........Manpower services deal with the majority. No permanent jobs (production) have been created at JLR for at least 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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