The Alternate (Counterfactual) History Thread

[Marka Ragnos]

Just now, MaVilla said:

1) What would the world be like if the Roman Empire never fell?

2) What would be the worlds primary religions if Constantine didnt convert to Christianity, and accept/support Christianity as the/a primary Religion of the Empire (as before that, Christians were a fairly small religious sect, and it wasnt treated well at all).

3) What if Great Britain had won the GB/American war if independence?

 

1. And stayed an empire? I think it would eventually implode,  but perhaps hastened human-generated climate change.

2. I can't imagine Islam without Christianity before it. I think a Greco-Roman pantheon of gods would have prevailed in Europe and perhaps expanded westward in an adapted form.

3. That was a very plausible possibility, too. I think the native people's of America would have been treated better and there would not have been the genocide. The British had their savagery here, but not on the scale of the Americans. 

[Mr_Dogg]

Ireland would never have joined the Axis, that is very far fetched even for an alternate history thread. But if they had, all they had to offer was there location. Certainly couldn't have contributed militarily.

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

7 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Come on - if any German naval officer ordered 10 U-boats into the small and shallow Irish Sea to take on half the Royal Navy with the RAF overhead he'd probably be shot for treason.

At the end of the day you're talking about a country with 3m people, an agrarian economy and no real military forces or defence industry, vs one of the most powerful countries in the world with a population of 50m, a global empire to call on and a defence industry to match. There's absolutely no way Ireland would have been able to hold out for any length of time once the British navy had cut them off from any potential aid.

 

These are all very good points but the army, navy and airforce units required were already deployed elsewhere.  Taking Ireland would have been very easy. Blockading Ireland would have been easy. But we didn't have half the Royal Navy available to do that.  

Which areas would you have neglected in on order to provide the forces required? 

The navy was escorting incoming convoys, hunting the Turpitz, Bismark and Graf Spee,  hunting u-boats, protecting the channel, protecting the empire, fighting the Japanese in the far east and fighting the Italian navy in the Mediterranean and protecting convoys shipping arms to Russia.  

This thread is one of hypothetical scenarios.  So........let's say we began preparations to invade Ireland causing the Irish to join the Axis.  We then used the Royal Navy to cut off Ireland and conquer it quite easily but taking naval loses doing so.  We deploy the army to suppress a large and well armed IRA who are still fighting in Ireland and commiting acts of sabotage throughout the UK. 

As a result, it allows the Italians and Germans to remain in North Africa.  They are now heading east towards Egypt, Palestine and Persia's oil fields.  

What happens next? 

 

 

[Villa87]

1. What if Alexander Flemings hadn’t left a Petri dish out in the lab for penicillin to grow?

2. What if the USA hadn’t taken photos over Cuba in October 1962?

3. What if Richard II had given into the demands of the rebels during the Peasant’s Revolt?

Edited February 14 by Villa87

[chrisp65]

What if, the guy that first made fire, absolutely shat himself, put it out and decided to never tell anyone what he’d just done?

 

[Panto_Villan]

41 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

 

These are all very good points but the army, navy and airforce units required were already deployed elsewhere.  Taking Ireland would have been very easy. Blockading Ireland would have been easy. But we didn't have half the Royal Navy available to do that.  

Which areas would you have neglected in on order to provide the forces required? 

The navy was escorting incoming convoys, hunting the Turpitz, Bismark and Graf Spee,  hunting u-boats, protecting the channel, protecting the empire, fighting the Japanese in the far east and fighting the Italian navy in the Mediterranean and protecting convoys shipping arms to Russia.  

This thread is one of hypothetical scenarios.  So........let's say we began preparations to invade Ireland causing the Irish to join the Axis.  We then used the Royal Navy to cut off Ireland and conquer it quite easily but taking naval loses doing so.  We deploy the army to suppress a large and well armed IRA who are still fighting in Ireland and commiting acts of sabotage throughout the UK. 

As a result, it allows the Italians and Germans to remain in North Africa.  They are now heading east towards Egypt, Palestine and Persia's oil fields.  

What happens next? 

 

 

I think you’re making the assumption that Britain had deployed all their forces elsewhere at the start of WW2. Although it makes hypothetical discussions more interesting, I don’t think it was true.

It seems like we had quite extensive army forces deployed in Northen Ireland at the start of the war and they weren’t committed elsewhere until D-Day.

Similarly the Home Fleet was operating in UK waters, and contained a lot of large ships until 1944. It was already protecting the seas we’d have needed to control to blockade Ireland.

I think the reason why we were worried about Ireland falling to the Nazis is the same reason why we’d find it relatively easy to conquer - it’s right next to Britain, and not very well protected. Hard to know for certain but it seems like the forces earmarked for defending Britain itself would have been adequate for taking Ireland, so I don’t think it would have required deprioritising anything else.

Yes, there would have been partisan activity if we’d actually attacked Ireland but Britain had 200 years of invading and conquering much larger countries than Ireland. I doubt it would have been any harder to control than France or Poland or any other (much larger) country that was occupied in WW2.

EDIT: that said, one interesting angle to the hypothetical is how much invading Ireland would have poisoned relations with America?

Edited February 14 by Panto_Villan

[Loxstock92]

8 hours ago, MaVilla said:

1) What would the world be like if the Roman Empire never fell?

Not the same but similar-ish. (There’s 2 more videos on the channel)

[Mandy Lifeboats]

30 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

I think you’re making the assumption that Britain had deployed all their forces elsewhere at the start of WW2. Although it makes hypothetical discussions more interesting, I don’t think it was true.

We are talking a hypothetical situation and therefore we don't know the dates.  But let's assume we are talking the later half of 1940. 

Europe had fallen.  We left a large amount of equipment at Dunkirk.  The Battle of Britain was underway. The Blitz had begun.  The Nazis had not attacked Russia.  We were fighting the Italians and Germans in North Africa.  Japan was about to begin its campaign against the British Empire. 

At this point in history I believe our forces were at their very weakest and stretched to the limit.  

Who knows what would have happened if the Nazis had not invaded the USSR and not declared war on the USA simply to help the Japanese**

 

** They didn't look very Arian to me.  

Edited February 14 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Mandy Lifeboats]

@Panto_Villan

I have been enjoying the posts so much that I forgot to like any of them.  

This is a fantastic discussion of "what ifs"  but also on the actual history of the time.  

More!  

 

[bickster]

How, realistically would the Nazis have invaded Ireland?

The logistics would be rather insurmountable I think.

Where would they have launched the invasion from? You’d have to imagine it would have to be from the Bay of Biscay coast rather than a Channel port. But even then, the chances of getting the armada across to Ireland undetected (months prior to launch even) would be next to impossible. The ships would be sitting ducks on the journey over. Let’s not forget the German Navy was primarily submarines for most of the war and the U-boats weren’t going to provide enough protection for the size of fleet required. As much as Ireland had no army of note, we know the British did, there’d have to be enough of a force to counter that, with a massive resupply issue once they’d taken a foothold, not only that but they’d need enough to quell any revolt and Ireland was a country well used to partisan activity in recent times.

Also, the U-boats would have left the Atlantic so the Battle of the Atlantic would have had far fewer casualties.

It was never going to happen

[chrisp65]

Indiana Jones films would basically be a race to Kilkenny for an authentic butter churn.

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

50 minutes ago, bickster said:

How, realistically would the Nazis have invaded Ireland?

It was very much a threat to tie up British Forces. 

This was the plan - 

Quote

Operational Plan for the invasion of Ireland

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Green_(Ireland)

 

The other plan was this one that had the support of the IRA. It was even less credible. 

Quote

Operational plan for the invasion of Northern Ireland sanctioned by the IRA

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_Kathleen

 

Edited February 14 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Mandy Lifeboats]

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, Aberdovey still has pill boxes that were placed to deter an invasion from Ireland. I spent many a happy hour shooting pretend Germans from these whilst on holiday.  It drove the wife mad.  

https://www.tracesofwar.com/sights/23849/Pillbox-FW3-26-Aberdovey.htm

Quote

Aberdovey pill boxes

If you are in the area, climb to the top of one of the hills overlooking the bay.  You can see all the defences.  

Edited February 14 by Mandy Lifeboats
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[Mandy Lifeboats]

This is the other defence I mentioned.  Pershore's was one of the British "stop lines". The stop lines were lines of fortifications built to counter an invasion.  

Pershore's main defence was centred around the river bridge.  The gun emplacement still exists as do the anti tank obstacles.  

The fortifications were designed so that they could be spun around to face an invasion from the South Coast or the Welsh Coast.

https://archaeologydataservice.ac.uk/archives/view/dob/ai_full_r.cfm?refno=9017

Quote

principal direction of fire was E along the A44 Evesham road, but it could be traversed to fire N at the Pershore Bridges.

If you are in the area to stalk Toyah (she lives in the house by the Zebra crossing in the town centre) have a look at the defences. 

 

Edited February 14 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[osmark86]

11 hours ago, Marka Ragnos said:

1. And stayed an empire? I think it would eventually implode,  but perhaps hastened human-generated climate change.

2. I can't imagine Islam without Christianity before it. I think a Greco-Roman pantheon of gods would have prevailed in Europe and perhaps expanded westward in an adapted form.

3. That was a very plausible possibility, too. I think the native people's of America would have been treated better and there would not have been the genocide. The British had their savagery here, but not on the scale of the Americans. 

I'm not sure native Americans would agree to this based on historical contact with British settlers. The British Empire has been quite cruel throughout history. But to have been at the scale of the Americans, I dunno you probably have a point there. Colonial America have a metric ****-ton of blood on their hands in relation to the indigenous Americans. 

[Panto_Villan]

3 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

@Panto_Villan

I have been enjoying the posts so much that I forgot to like any of them.  

This is a fantastic discussion of "what ifs"  but also on the actual history of the time.  

More!  

 

Thanks. Yes, I've found it interesting too - although I've got a busier day at work so I doubt I'll be posting as much today 

I think one other thing to bear in mind is that Britain may have been at its lowest ebb if you're picking the latter half of 1940, but the scale of military conflict between major powers was almost incomprehensibly different in those days. The British Army was 1.6 million men at the time, and although I can't find an exact figure of how many were stationed in Britain you had 550,000 that had been evacuated from France plus all those who were originally stationed in Britain / Northern Ireland rather than France. And that doesn't include the Home Guard, who were another 1.5 million volunteers (or the Navy).

The major industrialised countries could call up vast numbers of men and build astonishing amounts of hardware incredibly quickly - the forces in Britain went from having 350 tanks in June 1940 to having 700 two months later. We were building 400 Spitfires & Hurricanes per month between June and October in 1940. We could build more planes and tanks than the entire Irish armed forces had in just a couple of days. How could Ireland ever compete with that?

Basically, don't mistake Britain being on the back foot against another superpower as Britain being weak. It's hard to relate to today, but Britain was still incredibly powerful compared to everyone except for the handful of other world powers. I don't think Britain would have wanted to invade Ireland unless it was absolutely necessary, but if Ireland had announced they were joining the Axis then I honestly don't think they'd have lasted a week. Our military and industrial base was so large it just wouldn't have stretched us much.

[chrisp65]

Perhaps slightly more realistically, what if fascist Spain had declared an interest and had actively joined the fight?

Always thought it odd they didn’t.

 

 

[Captain_Townsend]

15 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The UK had suffered a massive defeat in Dunkirk and was fighting the Germans and Italians in North Africa. 

Had the UK begun preparing an invasion of Ireland it could have prompted Ireland to simply join the Axis. 

 

Not a chance. Absolute non starter. We hanged some individuals suspected of collaborating with Germany during WW2. 

we were one of the most stable democracies in Europe in 1939 with a new constitution ratified by referendum in December 1937. 

We would never, ever have gone to the Axis.

[Captain_Townsend]

2 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

It was very much a threat to tie up British Forces. 

This was the plan - 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Green_(Ireland)

 

The other plan was this one that had the support of the IRA. It was even less credible. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_Kathleen

 

The IRA was split between left and right in the 1930s and 1940s and was quite small at the time. The Irish government hanged 5 or 6 IRA members during WW2.

[Marka Ragnos]

52 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Perhaps slightly more realistically, what if fascist Spain had declared an interest and had actively joined the fight?

Always thought it odd they didn’t.

 

 

It's an intriguing question -- and a terrifying one. I imagine Franco probably would have opened the door to the republicans and the civil war would resume in some form, but it's hard to imagine Spain and Vichy France being good neighbours. I would think that the Sephardic Jews would have been murdered wholesale in an Axis Spain. But Franco was no friend to Jews, to say the least. I remember one of my favourite philosophers Walter Benjamin tried to escape to Spain in 1940 but felt he would be arrested and took his own life instead, if I recall correctly.