hippo Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Jareth said: Completely agree - as usual folks will consider their own safety first, deem themselves OK, and we'll have a bit of a problem with the NHS because the danger seems less dangerous but collectively there will be an issue. Weird. But a highly transmissive but mild virus can probably cause more deaths than a deadly but low transmittable virus. Ebola had a kill rate of 10% - but it didn't spread because it killed too many hosts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 42 minutes ago, hippo said: Not sure I would expect that. The vaccinated in the UK are a massive amount of people (80%) - so you are more likely to get vaccinated people in hospital - because there are some many more of them. You are pulling from a larger group. If the UK had only vaccinated 100 people - then you would probably get 0 people from that group with covid (because they are so few) Think of it like this... Would you rather have 50p from everyone who attends villa v Chelsea on boxing Day Or £2.50 from everyone who attends Halesowen town v (whoever!!) On the same day. Actually, yeah, I think you’ve nailed it. I need to check the thinking with numbers, but the amount of infections needs to be compared to the overall population of vaccinated/unvaccinated not compared as a ratio to each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted December 10, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2021 Finally managed to book in my booster for next week. I can't wait to get it done given the apparent alarm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, hippo said: Weird. But a highly transmissive but mild virus can probably cause more deaths than a deadly but low transmittable virus. Ebola had a kill rate of 10% - but it didn't spread because it killed too many hosts. Wikipedia tells me the death chance from Ebola ranges from 25% up to 90%, averaging 50%. If that got loose the issue wouldn’t be the fact it killed too many hosts but even societies that value liberty at the cost of safety (like us) would absolutely lock down the country to stop it spreading. Nobody would be pissing about with anti-vaxx crap or not wearing a mask if we were talking about Ebola instead of covid. Covid mostly kills old or unhealthy people so it’s easy for other members of society to think it won’t affect them - Ebola doesn’t care about any of that. Arguably covid is in the sweet spot where it will kill a lot of people if it spreads unchecked, but apparently not enough to unite society behind preventing that happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: Wikipedia tells me the death chance from Ebola ranges from 25% up to 90%, averaging 50%. If that got loose the issue wouldn’t be the fact it killed too many hosts but even societies that value liberty at the cost of safety (like us) would absolutely lock down the country to stop it spreading. Nobody would be pissing about with anti-vaxx crap or not wearing a mask if we were talking about Ebola instead of covid. Covid mostly kills old or unhealthy people so it’s easy for other members of society to think it won’t affect them - Ebola doesn’t care about any of that. Arguably covid is in the sweet spot where it will kill a lot of people if it spreads unchecked, but apparently not enough to unite society behind preventing that happening. Very early on they called covid stats the goldilox numbers - kills just enough to be a problem -but not severe enough to kill all its hosts (making it easier to contain,) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 58 minutes ago, Genie said: Actually, yeah, I think you’ve nailed it. I need to check the thinking with numbers, but the amount of infections needs to be compared to the overall population of vaccinated/unvaccinated not compared as a ratio to each other. I'd admire youre tenacity. But I'd get down the pub followed by spearmint rhino if I we you........you don't want to die starring at an excel spreadsheet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, hippo said: I'd admire youre tenacity. But I'd get down the pub followed by spearmint rhino if I we you........you don't want to die starring at an excel spreadsheet ! Haha, it’s bugged me for weeks. The headline is “vaccines reduce chance of getting infected” but the data looked different the way I was cutting it I roughly checked the other way on my phone and yeah, for 30-39 on the last set of data about 1 in 61 infected from vaccinated group and 1 in 48 from unvaccinated. Phew. Back to my beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Surely the full capacity gigs and football crowds has to be the first thing to go. I say that reluctantly as a season ticket holder, but come on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted December 10, 2021 Moderator Share Posted December 10, 2021 55 minutes ago, Wainy316 said: Surely the full capacity gigs and football crowds has to be the first thing to go. I say that reluctantly as a season ticket holder, but come on. I've got tickets for Shed Seven on the 22nd and I actually want them to cancel it so I don't have to pull out and let my mates down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 The UK really is braced for the Omicron storm. Last week one’s and twos of cases, next week it will be the dominant strain in the UK. Prediction of 200,000 cases a day by the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted December 10, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, Genie said: The UK really is braced for the Omicron storm. Last week one’s and twos of cases, next week it will be the dominant strain in the UK. Prediction of 200,000 cases a day by the end of the month. Coupled with stuff like this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted December 10, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2021 I want to know what the protection is with 2AZ + Pfizer booster. It's important for me and it's important for the nation because that the mix the vast majority of the oldies have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussG Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, sidcow said: I want to know what the protection is with 2AZ + Pfizer booster. It's important for me and it's important for the nation because that the mix the vast majority of the oldies have had. 71% protection against symptomatic infection according to what I read today, I too had the same combination. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted December 10, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, sidcow said: I want to know what the protection is with 2AZ + Pfizer booster. It's important for me and it's important for the nation because that the mix the vast majority of the oldies have had. "when boosted with a dose of Pfizer vaccine, there was around 70% protection against symptomatic infection for people who initially received AstraZeneca, and around 75% protection for those who received Pfizer". Reuters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted December 10, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2021 Pretty much every news report, every scientist and every Government official saying getting the booster is THE most important thing. People go "I've done my bit getting the two, I'm not getting another one now" There's nowt queer as folk. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted December 10, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, sidcow said: Pretty much every news report, every scientist and every Government official saying getting the booster is THE most important thing. People go "I've done my bit getting the two, I'm not getting another one now" There's nowt queer as folk. It's really quite concerning where this thing is heading. The initial science says 2 jabs won't protect you, it is going to rip through communities yet again, and people seem to think that they're immune to it. We'll be in a lockdown of sorts by Christmas at this rate. Hospital admissions already creeping up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted December 10, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, trekka said: It's really quite concerning where this thing is heading. The initial science says 2 jabs won't protect you, it is going to rip through communities yet again, and people seem to think that they're immune to it. We'll be in a lockdown of sorts by Christmas at this rate. Hospital admissions already creeping up . Not only that but previous infection with Delta provides very little protection from something someone posted up earlier. I know plenty of people who have said they're not going to get vaccinated as they've already had it so they could all be heading for a second dose. The next really important thing is just how dangerous this strain is. Lots of cases doesn't mean lots of hospitalisations but it's going to need to be really mild with the potential volumes they're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted December 11, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted December 11, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, sidcow said: The next really important thing is just how dangerous this strain is. Lots of cases doesn't mean lots of hospitalisations but it's going to need to be really mild with the potential volumes they're looking at. Yep, that's it. I won't post up yet another twitter post (I've been doing that a lot lately!) but basically, the vibe from someone on there (fairly simplistic when you think about it - go maths!) is that when a variant is doubling every 3 days (even if the hospitalisation rate is half of another variant) then that would only buy you 3 days until it has the same impact due to the doubling of cases. Edited December 11, 2021 by trekka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 The big issue won’t be double jabbed, it’ll be the small group of unvaccinated taking up a shitload of beds and vents for their relative numbers. The Norwegian and Danish health authorities are already buckling under pressure from their respective 400k and 600k unvaccinated, and that’s before omicron. This is people who are in the icu for weeks from Delta, making the icus unable to deal with what’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubbs Posted December 11, 2021 Share Posted December 11, 2021 11 hours ago, trekka said: Finally managed to book in my booster for next week. I can't wait to get it done given the apparent alarm. Had mine yesterday afternoon, aching arm, fever for a few hours about 10 hours later then was sick. No point staying in bed keeping the other half awake so I got up. Apart from a headache and feeling cold I'm OK now. I see it as a small inconvenience given the additional protection it gives. Hope anyone who is eligible for it, gets it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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