LondonLax Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 It might be coincidence but the run of downed planes did start with an A-50 (and they have subsequently lost a second, when they supposedly only had 3 operational). I don’t know the ins and outs but that loss of radar coverage could be giving Ukraine an advantage when targeting jets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 3 Moderator Share Posted March 3 26 minutes ago, LondonLax said: It might be coincidence but the run of downed planes did start with an A-50 (and they have subsequently lost a second, when they supposedly only had 3 operational). I don’t know the ins and outs but that loss of radar coverage could be giving Ukraine an advantage when targeting jets? The thing with AWACS (at least our versions) are they give a huge tactical picture over a huge area. They act as a command and control centre, pulling together an integrated picture of everything, they call it C4ISTAR, which is command, control, communications, computing, Intelligence, Surveillance, Targetting and reconnaissance. So they can see (if they’re turned on), ground radars, friendly neutral and foe aircraft, and have a picture of and links to, friendly forces and a picture of the enemy’s forces. So that’s all a massive advantage. But…in terms of Russian fighter jets or ground attack jets being shot down they’re not a massive help. Once the missile is fired from the ground or air, there’s nothing that they can do. My suspicion is Ukraine is keeping their ground based air defence systems dark, and only switching them on to acquire and target Russian jets for a brief time, possibly via intelligence from NATO surveillance activities. That’s a guess on my part , made on the assumption that Ukraine’s own jets are largely not in the area, due to inferiority of their sensors. It’s one reason why they desperately want F16s, to flip that inferiority balance. I just wonder if Russia isn’t just accepting they’ll lose aircraft and are throwing the kitchen sink at their onslaughts while Ukraine is short of ammunition and resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 I think there’s also a very real chance Ukraine are inflating the numbers they’ve shot down. They’re in dire need of good news, and this sort of “kill” is very hard to evidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 3 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: I think there’s also a very real chance Ukraine are inflating the numbers they’ve shot down. They’re in dire need of good news, and this sort of “kill” is very hard to evidence. Yes, I don’t necessarily believe all these numbers. Russian bloggers have acknowledged some of them whilst disputing others, but something out of the ordinary has been going on recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Shouldn't they deflate their numbers? You know. To get more stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 32 minutes ago, NoelVilla said: Shouldn't they deflate their numbers? You know. To get more stuff. They need good news right now. They have been moved off the front page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 11 minutes ago, LondonLax said: They need good news right now. They have been moved off the front page. That happened some time ago already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 1 hour ago, NoelVilla said: Shouldn't they deflate their numbers? You know. To get more stuff. Nobody wants to give money to a lost cause. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post colhint Posted March 3 Popular Post Share Posted March 3 The Man U board do. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoelVilla Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 15 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: Nobody wants to give money to a lost cause. So lying about shooting down a few more planes would make a big difference for the cause. Don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 Seems Russian mil-bloggers are as up in arms about the amount of lost planes and pilots as Ukraine is jubilant. It might not be 14 in 13 days, but even if it's half that, it's a loss ratio which doesn't bode well for the 150 or so produced total of Su-34 and their pilots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 9 hours ago, NoelVilla said: So lying about shooting down a few more planes would make a big difference for the cause. Don't think so. No, it won’t make a big difference. Nobody said it would. However I feel like it should be obvious that “we’ve taken your weapons and wasted them” is a much worse pitch for more weapons than “we’ve put your weapons to good use, can we have some more?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 4 Moderator Share Posted March 4 32 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: No, it won’t make a big difference. Nobody said it would. However I feel like it should be obvious that “we’ve taken your weapons and wasted them” is a much worse pitch for more weapons than “we’ve put your weapons to good use, can we have some more?” NATO have surveillance aircraft constantly patrolling in international airspace over the Black Sea. NATO will know how many aircraft have been downed. They really aren't claiming these to impress the donors of their equipment. Hell, thanks to the Germans it’s now known that the UK has troops in Ukraine advising and training the use of the advanced missiles It really isn’t what you seem to think it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 1 hour ago, bickster said: NATO have surveillance aircraft constantly patrolling in international airspace over the Black Sea. NATO will know how many aircraft have been downed. They really aren't claiming these to impress the donors of their equipment. Hell, thanks to the Germans it’s now known that the UK has troops in Ukraine advising and training the use of the advanced missiles It really isn’t what you seem to think it is. My argument was actually that they might be exaggerating Russian losses to improve their own morale given they’re steadily losing territory. Noel was the one that brought donors into it. As for NATO knowing exactly where every Russian plane in the air is at all times, and knowing instantly when they’ve been shot down - I don’t believe that for a second. And even if they did, they’re not going to slap Ukraine down in public for exaggerating their kills. Every country at war exaggerates their success to some degree, and Ukraine is no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 The Kerch bridge was closed to traffic last night and reports of explosions. There is speculation that Ukraine has done major damage to a ship defending the bridge. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 5 Moderator Share Posted March 5 10 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: As for NATO knowing exactly where every Russian plane in the air is at all times, and knowing instantly when they’ve been shot down - I don’t believe that for a second. I do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 hour ago, blandy said: I do. It wouldn’t affect my point even if they did, but I’ll believe Ukraine never exaggerates their kills and NATO knows exactly what’s happening at all times when someone brings me evidence of that big plane full of paratroopers that was supposedly shot down near Kyiv at the start of the war. It pretty transparently never happened, and the fact the US military repeated the claims before everyone realised it didn’t happen demonstrates pretty clearly to me that they don’t have perfect information either. There’s other examples too, but that’s the one that most obviously springs to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 5 Moderator Share Posted March 5 13 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: I’ll believe Ukraine never exaggerates their kills and NATO knows exactly what’s happening at all times when someone brings me evidence of that big plane full of paratroopers that was supposedly shot down near Kyiv at the start of the war. It pretty transparently never happened, and the fact the US military repeated the claims before everyone realised it didn’t happen demonstrates pretty clearly to me that they don’t have perfect information either. There’s other examples too, but that’s the one that most obviously springs to mind. That’s a different argument. I feel reasonably confident that the surveillance NATO forces have gives an accurate picture of where stuff is (to abbreviate). Who is on board which aircraft, or what fate befell them is a completely different story. Then layer in what is released to the media, who it serves and all that and who might benefit from deception or whatever - that’s beyond my comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 13 hours ago, bickster said: Hell, thanks to the Germans it’s now known that the UK has troops in Ukraine advising and training the use of the advanced missiles Didn’t @Awol tell us that about 2 years ago ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Another vessel hit with sea drones inside the harbour in Sevastopol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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