chrisp65 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 42 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Ah.......we he have a misunderstanding. Russia had a large amount of tanks and armoured vehicles in storage. That reserve has fallen by 90% as they have replaced vehicles that were in service. That's very different to only have 10% of its tanks left. A lot of that reserve are immobile and being used as pillboxes or are without their main gun and are being used as mobile machine gun platforms. Much of the reserve stock have been cannibalised for spares. India still hasn't received tanks it returned for servicing before the war began. But even so, if the figure is accurate and worth reporting and the fleet is also almost halved, why not make the smallest of pushes, remove that final 10% and really start making tangible progress. Only 10% remaining feels very close to being turned in to a distinct advantage where either other stocks are then depleted or bigger and bigger gaps are left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 50 minutes ago, limpid said: If it's even near that, he'll be having to remove forces existing from the borders and puppet states. I'd be surprised if there is much left on the European borders as he knows NATO won't attack unless he makes the first move. I winder if he trusts China as much? I wonder where the figure of 10% has come from. It has the feel of another of those overly positive statements we’ve been seeing for quite some time because people aren’t educated in understanding how war works, so they have to be duped and told constantly we are on the verge of winning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 14 Moderator Share Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: India still hasn't received tanks it returned for servicing before the war began. And it won't, fairly sure quite a few have been destroyed in Ukraine already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 They’re probably down to less than 10% of their reserves of specific types of vehicles but in general everything I’ve read suggests their overall reserves still have quite a way to go yet (I’ve seen estimates they’re like 50% empty). Obviously the best stuff was reactivated first so quality is declining over time as losses mount, but even older tanks are still tanks and are perfectly capable of killing people. The closest major weapon the Russians are close to running out of are the KA-52 attack helicopters, I believe. They’re down to about half their starting fleet of those, and they don’t have anything else that can do quite the same job. The danger long term is that the Russians slowly work their way up to producing significant numbers of helicopters and armoured vehicles each month, like they have done with artillery shells and missiles and drones. It’s not actually like the West builds that many each year so the boot would be on the other foot if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Surely the North Korean golf carts Russia are now using as IFVs are an indication that there’s not that much left, right? Nothing quite like being dropped off by the pope-mobile to a trench in which you will end your days while fighting for an old man who’s not likely to live to see the outcome of this war he’s started for kicks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Russian Tank Reserves Everything below is obviously guesswork. But I have taken these figures from various credible sources which seem to be producing similar figures. Tank reserve = 8000 Estimated number actually salvagable = 3300 Real reserve available = 3300 New tanks built = 500 The number of tanks destroyed/captured is at least 2616 Estimated Tanks lost = 3000 Russia is maintaining its number of tanks at the moment so they must have replaced the 3,000 loses. 500 were newly built 2500 came from the 3300 reserve. That makes the remaining reserve around 800 from a starting figure of 8000. This is why Russia is being very cautious. It simply cannot sustain the loss of 1500 tanks a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ukraine supposedly shot down an ‘A-50’ radar plane last night. Russia only has (had?) about 3 of them and they are a critical asset to be the eyes for Russia’s jets in the sky. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It also appears Ukraine have developed EW systems that can jam and target missiles. It'd be a great step for them as they wouldn't need the Western systems around key cities and would be able to move them up to the front to shoot down planes like the ones above. The way the Ukrainians are innovating I know which side of geo politics I'd want them on, and it isn't Russia's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 (edited) 1. If true, the destruction of 2 support aircraft is massive. Russia can't get air supremacy against a country with no real airforce. Nor can they defend their fleet against a country with no real navy. 2. Ukraine's electronic warfare is improving. Rumours suggest that Finland and Sweden have played a big part in this development. (Saab and Nokia). https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saab_Surveillanc Quote Their main market is.....electronic warfare. https://www.nokia.com/networks/industries/defense/ Quote 5G for defence Edited January 15 by Mandy Lifeboats Added details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 15 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: 2. Ukraine's electronic warfare is improving. Rumours suggest that Finland and Sweden have played a big part in this development. (Saab and Nokia 2 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: https://www.nokia.com/networks/industries/defense/ I knew the 8210 would never be beaten. Edited January 15 by sidcow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 There are lots of seemingly reliable Russia sources saying the Russia shot down at least one of the planes @LondonLax mentions above. One Russia blogger claims that someone has already been shot for their mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: There are lots of seemingly reliable Russia sources saying the Russia shot down at least one of the planes @LondonLax mentions above. One Russia blogger claims that someone has already been shot for their mistake. Is that slightly less embarrassing than Ukraine shooting it down? I’m not sure what is worse from a Russian point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 16 minutes ago, Genie said: Is that slightly less embarrassing than Ukraine shooting it down? I’m not sure what is worse from a Russian point of view. I'd say its more embarrassing. Being shot down by your enemy is war. Being shot down by your friend is an administrative error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: I'd say its more embarrassing. Being shot down by your enemy is war. Being shot down by your friend is an administrative error. If Ukraine shot it down it suggests Russia have been naive and Ukraine have more capability than expected. I think that’s worse from Russia’s point of view (my first thought was that they said they accidentally shot it themselves to cover for that embarrassment / question asking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The scenario I have seen was that the A-50 was shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot system (though it must be right on the front lines to have reached) and the other aircraft was hit and damaged by the resulting air defence systems. We might need to wait for more information to come out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Quote Ukraine's military says it has shot down a Russian military spy plane over the Sea of Azov, in what analysts say would be a blow to Moscow's air power. Army chief Gen Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the air force had "destroyed" an A-50 long range radar detection aircraft, and an Il-22 air control centre. BBC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 It’s fascinating the difference in ‘news’, where we have statements on here that the Russians only had 3 of these aircraft and 2 have been destroyed. Versus that BBC article that says they had 6 of those aircraft and it’s unverified that 2 of them may have been damaged. Which would leave them with one more that ‘vt’ made claim they started with. The fog of war I guess. Though the interesting bit was that if it was Ukraine and the aircraft was destroyed then that’s two pieces of good news. One, it’s the aircrew that’s the more rare commodity not the hardware, so a kill would be excellent. Two, if it was Ukraine then they’ve done something technically on the fringes of what’s possible with the weapons they have. Innovation to further scare Russians in to staying home. Imagine what they could be doing with a properly funded war effort. Potentially, they could be in a significantly better place with Russia in a significantly worse place and unable to be a fully functioning member of the arsehole alliance with Iran, North Korea, and Dr Evil. We’d even potentially have more thinking time to help stop the genocide in Palestine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted January 15 Moderator Share Posted January 15 21 hours ago, bickster said: And it won't, fairly sure quite a few have been destroyed in Ukraine already "Sorry mate, you've voided the warranty." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 22 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: It’s fascinating the difference in ‘news’, where we have statements on here that the Russians only had 3 of these aircraft and 2 have been destroyed. Versus that BBC article that says they had 6 of those aircraft and it’s unverified that 2 of them may have been damaged. Which would leave them with one more that ‘vt’ made claim they started with. There’s some good news, and there’s some bad news… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 15 VT Supporter Share Posted January 15 (edited) 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: It’s fascinating the difference in ‘news’, where we have statements on here that the Russians only had 3 of these aircraft and 2 have been destroyed. Versus that BBC article that says they had 6 of those aircraft and it’s unverified that 2 of them may have been damaged. Which would leave them with one more that ‘vt’ made claim they started with. The fog of war I guess. Though the interesting bit was that if it was Ukraine and the aircraft was destroyed then that’s two pieces of good news. One, it’s the aircrew that’s the more rare commodity not the hardware, so a kill would be excellent. Two, if it was Ukraine then they’ve done something technically on the fringes of what’s possible with the weapons they have. Innovation to further scare Russians in to staying home. Imagine what they could be doing with a properly funded war effort. Potentially, they could be in a significantly better place with Russia in a significantly worse place and unable to be a fully functioning member of the arsehole alliance with Iran, North Korea, and Dr Evil. We’d even potentially have more thinking time to help stop the genocide in Palestine. Truth is they've probably got none and just paint some jet airliners grey and glue some discs to the roof and stick a load of blokes inside with high powered binoculars looking out of the windows. Edited January 15 by sidcow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts