blandy Posted July 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, bickster said: I've seen nothing written about this at all. Just an out loud thought. Now the Dnipro river is just a river, where the huge lake used to be behind the dam. How crossable is that now? Apparently it’s been crossed by UA forces. Read that the other day. Russia flooded the place then moved the troops that were guarding that area north, so when UA forces got across they were able to take some land quite easily. Don’t think it was a big force, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, Genie said: Is it though? From what I can see, ever since Russia gave up on Kiev they took the regions they wanted to the east and south quite quickly and they are holding them now. Russia aren’t pushing forward, and apart from a few pockets here and there Ukraine aren’t reclaiming. It's still very early days in the offensive. As Bickster said most their best kit and equipment hasn't even been deployed on the frontlines yet. From estimates I've seen(a couple of weeks ago) they still have around 70% of troops left to deploy that were ear marked for the counter offensive. I could be much higher than that considering most the action is apparently Ukraine testing Russian defences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, bickster said: I've seen nothing written about this at all. Just an out loud thought. Now the Dnipro river is just a river, where the huge lake used to be behind the dam. How crossable is that now? I have seen one or two reports suggesting a few areas have now narrowed significantly since the levels have receded. Not seen much in the way of evidence of this though. However, with operational silence currently I'm sure a few things are being kept quite, especially from Ukraines pov. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted July 7, 2023 Share Posted July 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, blandy said: Apparently it’s been crossed by UA forces. Read that the other day. Russia flooded the place then moved the troops that were guarding that area north, so when UA forces got across they were able to take some land quite easily. Don’t think it was a big force, though. It has been. The number I've seen reported was initially 70 troops crossed the Antonivskyi Bridge, but I would presume they have since been reinforced significantly. The fact Russia are trying and failing to push them back over indicates far more Ukrainians are now on the occupied side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 7, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 7, 2023 31 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: It has been. The number I've seen reported was initially 70 troops crossed the Antonivskyi Bridge, but I would presume they have since been reinforced significantly. The fact Russia are trying and failing to push them back over indicates far more Ukrainians are now on the occupied side. I'm not talking bout near Kherson and the Dam itself, I'm talking about the wide expanse that acted as a natural front line, say from Beryslav across to Khakovka Google Maps Link 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mozzavfc Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 I would assume the land that was previously under the water line would still be tricky to walk/drive over and would be very exposed, so there's probably better places to cross that were there previously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 22 hours ago, bickster said: I've seen nothing written about this at all. Just an out loud thought. Now the Dnipro river is just a river, where the huge lake used to be behind the dam. How crossable is that now? Short answer, very crossable. Especially just north of ZNPP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 8, 2023 Share Posted July 8, 2023 From a pre-counter offensive total of about 30 active KA-52's, Russia has lost anywhere from 10-15 in just two weeks. Ka-52 is one of the few good counters to Western tanks along with mines and dual-warhead ATGMs. I don't think we'll see a proper fast armoured counter offensive until this number is around 5. They're extremely dangerous for Ukraine. I also think there's much more movement around Bakhmut than what UAF is reporting, because there's videos on Telegram of Ukranian soldiers inside Klischiivka, and scoped pictures of Opytne, South East of Bakhmut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Who let this guy on incredible watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 Erdoğan appears to be hardening his stance against Russia now that he's secured another term. Ukraine and Turkey have announced that the grain export deal will take place this year with or without Russia's participation. Turkish forces will defend merchant ships against attack. It means NATO forces will be officially assisting Ukraine from within the conflict area. Erdoğan also allowed several Ukrainian POW to return home despite an agreement with Russia that he wouldn't. Putin's looking weaker than ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Erdoğan appears to be hardening his stance against Russia now that he's secured another term. It also seems he is being pressured by NATO to be harder on Russia. Given the discovery of gas they made maybe Turkey aren't as bothered now about the nuclear power plant deal with Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Erdoğan appears to be hardening his stance against Russia now that he's secured another term. Ukraine and Turkey have announced that the grain export deal will take place this year with or without Russia's participation. Turkish forces will defend merchant ships against attack. It means NATO forces will be officially assisting Ukraine from within the conflict area. Erdoğan also allowed several Ukrainian POW to return home despite an agreement with Russia that he wouldn't. Putin's looking weaker than ever. And just to make it clear, Turkey has the largest land army in Europe. It's got decent military production (drones, ships, afvs, missiles, gmlrs), and would also likely not be sad if Russia stopped sending Turkic people to the gulags from Crimea. Edited July 10, 2023 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted July 10, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted July 10, 2023 Prigozhin met with Putin after the mutiny apparently. Wonder if he'll ever be seen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 2 hours ago, magnkarl said: And just to make it clear, Turkey has the largest land army in Europe. It's got decent military production (drones, ships, afvs, missiles, gmlrs), and would also likely not be sad if Russia stopped sending Turkic people to the gulags from Crimea. Erdogan only does what’s best for Erdogan, whether that helps Russia or hurts it. His latest gambit is that Sweden will only be accepted into NATO when Turkey is accepted into the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 1 minute ago, fightoffyour said: Prigozhin met with Putin after the mutiny apparently. Wonder if he'll ever be seen again. It was funny reading that story on the BBC. He met, they had a chat about the war and the mutiny. Progozhins whereabouts are unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted July 10, 2023 Moderator Share Posted July 10, 2023 21 minutes ago, Genie said: It was funny reading that story on the BBC. He met, they had a chat about the war and the mutiny. Progozhins whereabouts are unknown Specifically when after the mutiny did they meet because Prigozhin was in St Petersburg last week to pick up some weapons that were confiscated when one of his properties was searched? (he was seen entering and leaving the FSB office apparently) They were specialist sporting guns if I remember correctly. This was the same day as Lukashenko publicly said he was in St Petersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 I’m gobsmacked he got in and out of the Kremlin alive. He must have an amazing insurance policy that stops Putin killing him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Genie said: I’m gobsmacked he got in and out of the Kremlin alive. He must have an amazing insurance policy that stops Putin killing him. Unless the whole thing was a stitch up? I don’t think any of us yet knows what went on with that episode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 10, 2023 Share Posted July 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Unless the whole thing was a stitch up? I don’t think any of us yet knows what went on with that episode. Putin came out of it looking extremely weak so I doubt he was in on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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