Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[sne]

Amazing  

 

 

[Buffs]

23 minutes ago, sne said:

Amazing  

 

 

Thinking Dictator vibes…

Edited July 6, 2023 by Buffs

[magnkarl]

[bickster]

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[bickster]

2 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Isn’t Lavrov on the arrest list over interference in the US elections?

[LondonLax]

8 minutes ago, bickster said:

Isn’t Lavrov on the arrest list over interference in the US elections?

The article says the talks took place while he was in New York in April when Russia chaired the UN.

[avfc1982am]

57 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Main takes from that article is Ukraine aren't involved and neither are the Biden administration. I just don't see any real story here other than ex US officials discussing things they have no control over.

Although the frontlines are moving slowly there is far from a stalemate, and as such Ukraine wont be negotiating until Russians have pulled back. It's not what some want to hear but tough really. Only Ukraine can say when they're willing to negotiate and to what end. It's not for the US, UK or anyone else to negotiate an end to this war imo especially with those that continually lie, like Lavrov. No chance they will accept anything other than complete Russian withdrawal which doesn't seem like happening anytime soon either. 

This has a long long way to go before Ukraine go back to the negotiation table if at all. 

 

[avfc1982am]

Not sure how accurate this is but if it's anywhere near close to these numbers the shift in advantage is changing massively. 

 

[LondonLax]

7 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

Main takes from that article is Ukraine aren't involved and neither are the Biden administration. I just don't see any real story here other than ex US officials discussing things they have no control over.

Although the frontlines are moving slowly there is far from a stalemate, and as such Ukraine wont be negotiating until Russians have pulled back. It's not what some want to hear but tough really. Only Ukraine can say when they're willing to negotiate and to what end. It's not for the US, UK or anyone else to negotiate an end to this war imo especially with those that continually lie, like Lavrov. No chance they will accept anything other than complete Russian withdrawal which doesn't seem like happening anytime soon either. 

This has a long long way to go before Ukraine go back to the negotiation table if at all. 

 

Well that’s not really true. Ukraine is continuing this war entirely through the patronage of others. They do not produce the weapons they need themselves, nor do they have the resources to purchase them.

If their patrons decide the war is over then it is over. 

Who knows what next year’s US election will bring but there is a possibility of a significant shift in US policy. 

[pas5898]

1 hour ago, LondonLax said:

Well that’s not really true. Ukraine is continuing this war entirely through the patronage of others. They do not produce the weapons they need themselves, nor do they have the resources to purchase them.

If their patrons decide the war is over then it is over. 

Who knows what next year’s US election will bring but there is a possibility of a significant shift in US policy. 

Would go as far as saying the outcome of the next US election will determine who "wins the war". If the democrats win there will be at least 4 more years of heavy miliary support which will finish off Russia. If a Ron De Santis gets in, then it's up to the generosity of European countries. 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

US Dollar / Russian Ruble
Something is going on this week for sure.
26/06/2022 - 50 Ruble for 1 Dollar

07/07/2023 - 92 Ruble for 1 Dollar

Went from 80 to 92 in last 30 days and has lost already today a tiny bit.

 

- This is bad for Russia as it shows their economy is slowly losing grip.

- They were propping it up a bit last year and earlier this year but I genuinely think they are running out of money now.

- They have got loads of India Rupees in their bank from selling stuff to India,  but nowhere to spend it as its not really traded.

- Most of their trades are no is Chinees or Indian currency.  It slowly eats the Ruble strength as its used less and less.

- Price for Oil / gas they are getting is not far above cost now.

- Russia is only down 150-250 M a day overall on the Oil / gas stuff BUT the volume sold to achieve almost the same revenue is vastly increased and some of it is now sea travel as oppose to a pipe.

 

[avfc1982am]

4 hours ago, LondonLax said:

Well that’s not really true. Ukraine is continuing this war entirely through the patronage of others. They do not produce the weapons they need themselves, nor do they have the resources to purchase them.

If their patrons decide the war is over then it is over. 

Who knows what next year’s US election will bring but there is a possibility of a significant shift in US policy. 

You do realise Ukraine produce their own weapon systems and have been one of the world top exporters of arms prior to this conflict? 

Defense industry of Ukraine - Wikipedia

Ukraine holds the annual military exhibition Zbroya ta bezpeka [uk] (Arms and Security).^[15]

An augmented reality system LimpidArmor for armored vehicles was presented at the XIII International Specialized Exhibition "Weapons and Security 2016".^[16]

In 2016, the Delta (situational awareness system) was presented,^[17][18] with several other software solutions for armed forces like GisArta, MyGun, Topo, Kropyva, Dzvin-AS, Prostir.

A number of small arms like Snipex M, Snipex T-Rex, Snipex Alligator, SGM-12,7 [uk], Zbroyar Z-10, Zbroyar Z-15 [uk], M4-WAC-47, Malyuk, Submachine gun «Elf» [uk], Goblin submachine gun [uk], Khortytsia pistols [uk]

UAG-40 [uk], M120-15 «Hammer» [uk], M60-16 «Camerton» [uk]

A number of armoured vehicles like T-84, BTR-3, BTR-4, Otaman, Kevlar-E [uk], Berserk (IFV) [uk], Tur (IFV) [uk]

Developed the anti-ship missile complex R-360 Neptune (see Sinking of the Moskva) .^[19]

In 2022, several new weapons systems saw use. They include the first Ukrainian 155mm self-propelled howitzer 2S22 Bohdana with precision munition Kvitnyk [uk]. Several MRLS --- Vilkha, Verba, Bureviy [uk], Berest (MRLS) [uk]. UAV's Sokil-300 [uk],^[20] A1-CM Furia, Shark (UAV) [uk] a number of MRAP like Dozor-B, Kozak, SBA Varta [uk], Novator and ATGM's like Skif and RK-3 Corsar. Jet infantry flamethrower RPV-16 [uk], RK-4 [uk] and termobaric grenade RGT-27S [uk]

Aircraft building program include Antonov An-178, modernisation of soviet helicopters MSB-2 [uk], MSB-6 [uk], MSB-8 [uk], Mi-24, light helicopter VM-4 [uk]

Ukrainian Shipbuilding Program include Volodymyr Velykyi-class frigate, Gyurza-M-class gunboat, Centaur-class fast assault craft, Vespa-class missile boat [uk] and Coral-class patrol ship [uk], Orlan-class patrol boat [uk]

Ukrainian Rocket Program [uk] also include tactical missile system Hrim^[21][22] and anti-air missile complex Dnipro^[20] and Korshun-2 (cruise missile) [uk], mid-range Koral (surface-to-air missile) [uk], air-to-ground Blyskavka (rocket) [uk]

 

Nobody is saying Ukraine haven't been given assistance and patrons can decide whenever they like to stop aiding Ukraine but only Ukrainians will decide when they've had enough. They've already been at war for 9 years with Russia. People keep forgetting that it's Ukrainians actually doing the fighting, not the West. That was the point I was making.

We can go around in circles talking about what may or may not happen in 12-18 months time with regards to assistance but the truth is nobody knows what will happen. We can't predict the next few weeks never mind a year or two from now. Russia could very well be done in 12 months, we just don't know. 

As it currently is, 12 months from now Ukraine at the current rate, will have reduced the deficit on comparable arms with Russia and possibly have the upper hand on military equipment/tech across most operable systems in the conflict zone. That alone will mean they will not be as heavily reliant as they were, say 12 months ago or indeed currently. 

We'll see what happens and although hypothetical my guess is the US and all the other "patrons" are far to heavily invested in the security of Europe to walk away anytime soon and let Russia roll over Ukraine. That day has long gone imo. There may well be reductions in certain weapons however by then they'll be other systems in place that will fill the void and keep Ukraine in control of their own decisions.

 

[bickster]

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

9 minutes ago, bickster said:

 

Did you see the tank drive off the road and into a sign,  even the tank knew it was going to go wrong.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

Not seeing many Russian tanks at the moment,  almost none.

They are either holding some back or are running out.  I think running out now,  they need maintenance, fuel, crew and ammo to be supplied all the time at the right place.  Russia can hardly do any of this currently,  I think their logistics and ammo is short at the moment.

[Xann]

The NATO plan to cede territory, inviting Putin's forces onto entrenched defences whilst attacking lengthening supply lines, has worked really well in reducing Russia's war machine.

Ukraine doesn't want to fight that war and is looking to advance. Now we wait on the new attrition rates from the altered dynamic.

A tenner on Kate becoming an ambassador for a Ukrainian landmine victim charity by 2030 may not be a bad bet? 

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, Xann said:

The NATO plan to cede territory, inviting Putin's forces onto entrenched defences whilst attacking lengthening supply lines, has worked really well in reducing Russia's war machine.

Is it though? From what I can see, ever since Russia gave up on Kiev they took the regions they wanted to the east and south quite quickly and they are holding them now. Russia aren’t pushing forward, and apart from a few pockets here and there Ukraine aren’t reclaiming. 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

and apart from a few pockets here and there Ukraine aren’t reclaiming. 

They are reclaiming land, just not speedily. We've still hardly seen any of the new NATO kit in action on the front line. You just aren't gong to get a Blitzkrieg situation with extremely well dug in troops straight away. At some point the attrition will have an effect and you'll see a collapse but it will take time

[bickster]

I've seen nothing written about this at all. Just an out loud thought. Now the Dnipro river is just a river, where the huge lake used to be behind the dam. How crossable is that now?