The Chairman Mao resembling, Monarchy hating, threat to Britain, Labour Party thread

[Jareth]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Currently predicted to lose about 4 or 5 seats, lose overall control, and require a coalition with a party they’ve recently described as inherently right wing.

But yes, taken against other places, a relative success.

They undertook Labour Party membership polling and it came out as narrowly pro independence and strongly for more Senedd powers. So obviously they adopted a strategy of promoting unionism, calling independence ‘right wing’ and declining additional powers for the Senedd when they were offered.

You do wonder if they are on a deliberate strategy of long term managed decline. 

 

Have to say I found having Drakeford in charge reassuring during Covid, whilst Bozza spewed his usual overpromises and late lockdowns. I wonder how the leave/remain vote affects things, Wales being a leave country but not backing the Tories - is that the Welsh being sensible or just more resentful of the tories than those northern englanders?

[chrisp65]

2 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Have to say I found having Drakeford in charge reassuring during Covid, whilst Bozza spewed his usual overpromises and late lockdowns. I wonder how the leave/remain vote affects things, Wales being a leave country but not backing the Tories - is that the Welsh being sensible or just more resentful of the tories than those northern englanders?

Drakeford has been good, but he’s a reluctant leader, genuinely didn’t want the job but got pushed to the front. I’d say he‘ s been very good and then failed to capitalise on it, he took a kicking for saying vaccination wasn’t a race, and never once pointed out when we were miles ahead of england in the not a race race.

We locked down earlier, and had it less severe. We locked down early and asked for an extension of furlough and business grants and were told the money had dried up, there simply wasn’t more to give. Then two weeks later england decided it needed another lockdown, and the money taps were turned back on. If they had done that top the SNP they’d have been slaughtered for it. Drakeford was grateful for the reversal of the original decision. 

I did have the voting data on leave / remain in Wales and it was fascinating. The Universities did a dive in to it and found that within Wales, people that self identified as ‘Welsh’ voted remain. People living in Wales but self identifying as English, voted leave. So keeping in mind that there were only 82,000 votes in it, in Wales: The Wales figure was somewhat skewed by the 20% of the population that live in Wales and identify as English. Of that english 20%, a quarter of those are pensioners. 

You take english pensioners living in Wales out of the equation... 

But you can’t, so it’s irrelevant.

What is interesting though, the Abolish The Assembly party looks like getting about 3 or 4 seats. Their demographic is heavily pensioner lead, apparently something like 86% of people saying they will vote Abolish, are pensioners. One of their main policies is to scrap the Senedd and the Welsh NHS and just absorb in to England NHS. 

If I was a betting man, I’d say they were that same Brexit demographic, doubling down.

 

[Jareth]

4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Drakeford has been good, but he’s a reluctant leader, genuinely didn’t want the job but got pushed to the front. I’d say he‘ s been very good and then failed to capitalise on it, he took a kicking for saying vaccination wasn’t a race, and never once pointed out when we were miles ahead of england in the not a race race.

We locked down earlier, and had it less severe. We locked down early and asked for an extension of furlough and business grants and were told the money had dried up, there simply wasn’t more to give. Then two weeks later england decided it needed another lockdown, and the money taps were turned back on. If they had done that top the SNP they’d have been slaughtered for it. Drakeford was grateful for the reversal of the original decision. 

I did have the voting data on leave / remain in Wales and it was fascinating. The Universities did a dive in to it and found that within Wales, people that self identified as ‘Welsh’ voted remain. People living in Wales but self identifying as English, voted leave. So keeping in mind that there were only 82,000 votes in it, in Wales: The Wales figure was somewhat skewed by the 20% of the population that live in Wales and identify as English. Of that english 20%, a quarter of those are pensioners. 

You take english pensioners living in Wales out of the equation... 

But you can’t, so it’s irrelevant.

What is interesting though, the Abolish The Assembly party looks like getting about 3 or 4 seats. Their demographic is heavily pensioner lead, apparently something like 86% of people saying they will vote Abolish, are pensioners. One of their main policies is to scrap the Senedd and the Welsh NHS and just absorb in to England NHS. 

If I was a betting man, I’d say they were that same Brexit demographic, doubling down.

 

Fascinating data, thanks. Not so oddly enough the english-living-in-wales pensioner in my household is indeed intending to vote for the abolish lot, and voted for Brexit. I'll hide their walking stick tomorrow.

[ml1dch]

34 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Wales being a leave country but not backing the Tories - is that the Welsh being sensible ...?

Demonstrably not.

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, Jareth said:

Fascinating data, thanks. Not so oddly enough the english-living-in-wales pensioner in my household is indeed intending to vote for the abolish lot, and voted for Brexit. I'll hide their walking stick tomorrow.

It’s a really tricky subject.

We have two pensioners at the football, absolutely lovely, nice people.

Recently moved here from Derby. They intend to vote UKIP. Which also wants to abolish the Senedd.

How do you engage in that conversation and avoid it turning in to something that looks borderline anti english/welsh?

 

 

 

[blandy]

29 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

How do you engage in that conversation and avoid it turning in to something that looks borderline anti english/welsh?

 

Ask questions only. Don't give opinion.

Slim chance number 1 is they'll explain a rational reason for what they think and you'll understand something you don't currently

Slim chance number 2 is your questions will lead them to ponder a key point of their thinking that may make them reconsider their intention

Big chance is they'll say something that is essentially an end point to the convo. At which point you say "OK...well now I know, thanks for explaining".

They'll leave having been listened to, which will make them feel good and you'll leave having either found out something new that you didn't understand before, or having something confirmed ...and no one will fall out.

Sorry, you didn't actually want an answer to your question - it was rhetorical?

[chrisp65]

16 minutes ago, blandy said:

Ask questions only. Don't give opinion.

Slim chance number 1 is they'll explain a rational reason for what they think and you'll understand something you don't currently

Slim chance number 2 is your questions will lead them to ponder a key point of their thinking that may make them reconsider their intention

Big chance is they'll say something that is essentially an end point to the convo. At which point you say "OK...well now I know, thanks for explaining".

They'll leave having been listened to, which will make them feel good and you'll leave having either found out something new that you didn't understand before, or having something confirmed ...and no one will fall out.

Sorry, you didn't actually want an answer to your question - it was rhetorical?

It wasn’t completely rhetorical, no. But I have already previously engaged briefly, over a twitter chatter.

When I asked what it was about Neil Hamilton and UKIP that had got their vote, the answer I got was ‘they’re all as bad as each other’.

I’m not sure any of us learnt anything new. But I didn’t pursue it any further.

FWIW, my personal speculation is that it’s down to one of two things. Either, they are just idiots in the classic UKIP mould and have transferred their UKIP vote from Derby to Barry. Or, they have seen the twitter profiles of the people around them at the footy and they are the sort of idiots that think if we get our way they’ll be forced to speak welsh with all those vowels. So they used to be normal, but are now attempting to offset my vote, to stop their sky falling in.

It’s just a theory. There are worse people than them at the football, which is why they surprised me with their out of left field confession. I had them down as quiet labour or quiet tory. 

 

[blandy]

21 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

When I asked what it was about Neil Hamilton and UKIP that had got their vote, the answer I got was ‘they’re all as bad as each other’.

My question in response to that kind of answer would be, well if they're all as bad as each other, why pick the one that was forced to resign as an MP and then lost a court case after taking cash for questions? - isn't that knowingly picking the most crooked of the lot and encouraging them to do bad things, because people will still vote for them?

or something along those lines

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, blandy said:

My question in response to that kind of answer would be, well if they're all as bad as each other, why pick the one that was forced to resign as an MP and then lost a court case after taking cash for questions? - isn't that knowingly picking the most crooked of the lot and encouraging them to do bad things, because people will still vote for them?

or something along those lines

Knowing me, I probably typed out three or four versions of that with varying degrees of violence and sarcasm, and then thought, ‘ahh, **** it’.

 

[blandy]

Just now, chrisp65 said:

then thought, ‘ahh, **** it’.

Probably wise, on reflection.

[HanoiVillan]

Amusingly desperate attempt for the media to rescue their boy Starmer from his own comments here:

Like a job interviewer asking softball questions to their mate, and them flunking it anyway.

[JB]

6 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

I did have the voting data on leave / remain in Wales and it was fascinating. The Universities did a dive in to it and found that within Wales, people that self identified as ‘Welsh’ voted remain. People living in Wales but self identifying as English, voted leave. So keeping in mind that there were only 82,000 votes in it, in Wales: The Wales figure was somewhat skewed by the 20% of the population that live in Wales and identify as English. Of that english 20%, a quarter of those are pensioners. 

That’s genuinely interesting and somewhat surprising. 

The five Welsh regions that voted to remain - Cardiff, Vale, Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Monmouthshire are ones that I would expect to have amongst the highest influx of English. Certainly more than leave voting Bridgend, Rhondda, Carmarthenshire, Caerphilly, Merthyr, and the majority of the twelve other leave voting council areas.

As for Drakeford, it’s morbidly fascinating that he seems to be getting a bit of a kicking for his general competence and measured safety first approach from the same sorts of people who would no doubt be professing that Johnson ‘did his best’. I got a vaguely threatening flyer through the door this week from a candidate running here on what essentially seems to be an anti-Drakeford ticket. 

I’m not quite full-on Yes Cymru car sticker yet but I’m leaning towards voting for independence if the opportunity arises. ‘Indy-curious’ as my father-in-law put it.

[chrisp65]

13 minutes ago, JB said:

That’s genuinely interesting and somewhat surprising. 

The five Welsh regions that voted to remain - Cardiff, Vale, Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Monmouthshire are ones that I would expect to have amongst the highest influx of English. Certainly more than leave voting Bridgend, Rhondda, Carmarthenshire, Caerphilly, Merthyr, and the majority of the twelve other leave voting council areas.

As for Drakeford, it’s morbidly fascinating that he seems to be getting a bit of a kicking for his general competence and measured safety first approach from the same sorts of people who would no doubt be professing that Johnson ‘did his best’. I got a vaguely threatening flyer through the door this week from a candidate running here on what essentially seems to be an anti-Drakeford ticket. 

I’m not quite full-on Yes Cymru car sticker yet but I’m leaning towards voting for independence if the opportunity arises. ‘Indy-curious’ as my father-in-law put it.

Yep, I agree, I had the same thought. I’d have presumed Cardiff and the Vale would have more ‘English’. Which I still strongly suspect they do.

I think the distinction, is the age profile, and then whether they actually vote.

I’ve tried to find the papers from Richard Wyn Jones and from separately, Oxford Uni, but I can’t find the detailed ones. From memory, it was a case of those identifying as english, regardless of where they lived, were strongly likely to vote leave. Older people, were strongly likely to vote leave. So older english people were strongly leave, and strongly likely to vote. Wales has a disproportionate number of english retirees ( they don’t retire to Cardiff or Barry). Wales voted leave, by just 82,000 votes.

Perhaps the people living in Cardiff and the Vale are younger, they are in jobs connected to the BBC or the Senedd and they are seeing somewhere that is doing ok, relatively speaking. They’re also younger, so possibly tweeted a lot of remain stuff and then didn’t quite bother actually voting. They are just as much the villains of the piece, the non-voter yoof.

Then you look at somewhere like Ynys Mon, a Mecca for the retirement move. It voted leave. West Wales, nicknamed ‘little England’, it voted leave. 

I mean, it’s a glorious irrelevance really, if you live here, you live here. And once you live here, you vote here. 53% of the population here didn’t bother voting, so in actual fact, just under 25% of voters managed to get Brexit done.

I think a lot of the Indy parties, Plaid, Gwlad, Propel, Green, they have been presuming a boost from the 16 and 17 year old voters tomorrow. I think it might be occurring to them now, that kids tweeting doesn’t translate in to kids registering to vote AND then voting.

The Vale has been Labour since the start. I think it could go blue tomorrow. I know people that have canvassed for Labour and had Labour posters in their gardens that aren’t voting for them this time. It won’t impact Plaid much, they are a distant 3rd. But the tories only need a few hundred people to think like that, and they are in. I think it’s been Drakeford’s biggest mistake, the dismissive stance on Indy and telling life long Labour supporters that being Indy curious is ‘inherently right wing’. He’s pissed people off with that, in a constituency with a narrow margin.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

13 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Like a job interviewer asking softball questions to their mate, and them flunking it anyway.

Agreed,  stuff like this is cringe and is anyone really fooled by it ?

It's Like when Starmer was looking at wallpaper the other week in a shop, you wont beat Boris by looking like a clown.  He does that.

He agrees to go to these things.

[bickster]

If we're on stupid things politicians do, then this from yesterday is up there

What does this achieve? Two people clearly on the happy pills drinking a coffee and small glasses of beer in front of a plastic tarpaulin

I'm really not sure what the message is here. It's clearly staged but to what end? Look we can be smug words removed too?

 

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

17 minutes ago, bickster said:

If we're on stupid things politicians do, then this from yesterday is up there

I suggest it's always going to cause more damage than anything long term. 

What's the caption "On Friday night I resolve to collect my tears in this glass and you do the same."  He genuinely has nothing to laugh about.

Its like the Sturgeon and Salmond pictures where they look into each others eyes,  like a grubby pound shop Jack and Rose but the internet doesn't forget.

[Demitri_C]

You will be delighted to hear my council isnt even up for nomination this year! 

[blandy]

14 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Amusingly desperate attempt for the media to rescue their boy Starmer from his own comments here

I thought you said the media are hostile to Labour?  I expect she’s from the Mirror then…oh! Torygraph you say?

Most curious…

[HanoiVillan]

22 minutes ago, blandy said:

I thought you said the media are hostile to Labour?  I expect she’s from the Mirror then…oh! Torygraph you say?

Most curious…

'The media' are not one entity. The views and interests of owners, and the outlooks of individual commentators and employees, may not be the same at any one time. The Telegraph is a Conservative newspaper, but that doesn't mean everyone working for it has to be a rabid Tory.

It is true that many outlets are generally opposed to the interests of Labour as a party any time there is a run-up to a general election, but more important here is that pretty much all are opposed to the desires of Labour's membership at all times, so many media commentators are generally taken with Starmer precisely because he is seen to be in opposition to/fighting with Labour's membership.

What's particularly revealing about Fisher's post is that one of the ways media figures discipline politicians is by setting them 'tests' for them to 'pass' or 'fail'. It might seem positive for Starmer that he is receiving a 'pass' mark here, but frankly I think it shows just as much that he isn't seen as a threat.

[blandy]

29 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

The media' are not one entity.

No they're not. which is why your post struck me as odd - "desperate attempt for the media to rescue their boy" seemed strange. Starmer is not the Torygraph's "boy", nor more significantly is he the collective media's boy.

What he is is less off-putting to most commentators/media than the previous leader of Labour. And this is reflected in the tone of the coverage - commentators perceive him and comment on him/his predecessor rather less partisanly than some folk allege. I also don't agree that "more important here is that pretty much all are opposed to the desires of Labour's membership at all times" - I think that's wildly untrue. Some media owners are at all times in favour of things that benefit themselves, but if we take recent issues for example - Nurses pay, Grenfell, the Pandemic, Kier Starmer...the media are on the same "side" as Labour members, who (obviously) are pro nurses getting decent pay rises, pro looking after leaseholders in flats wrt the cladding, and who elected Starmer to be leader in big number.

Where I'd align, perhaps is that these nasty media bosses (Murdoch, Barclays, Rothmere) don't perceive Starmer to be incompetent and a clear threat to their situations. Further, I don't think they are keen on Johnson - they think he is incompetent and untrustworthy and to an extent are looking at Starmer (and also Tory figures) through the lens of "is this one less of a clown than Johnson"? With Corbyn they felt he was worse than Johnson, with Starmer, Sunak, etc. I wonder if they think they are better (more capable) than Johnson? it is in everyone's interest that the UK thrives - people having more money to spend on Newspapers etc. is of benefit to them as much as to normal people.