Enda

What are the odds that Joey Barton nearly breaks Jack's leg within the first 20 minutes?

Oh what a crap season it has been.

We're not as skint as some are suggesting. I'd say his fee and wages would be in the same ballpark as Tom Cleverley.

I'd take both of us losing ahead of Villa scraping a draw and Sunderland getting all three points.

I'm also fed up of us being soft. But I'd rather it be more like Ron Vlaar/Kevin Richardson/Ian Taylor/whoever style toughness instead of blatant dangerous play. We shouldn't turn a blind eye to thuggery because Alan's one of our own. Very poor decision by him, deserved a red, deserved a two match ban. He's had a brilliant season, but he needs to get streak out of his game.

Very nasty challenge at the end. Unacceptable. Suspended for the next two games now. With Lowton covering for Aly, we're in trouble there.

Troon, there's a hundred posters on here that I would categorise as negative and useless at the same time.

I'd be surprised if Sherwood played five in midfield against a team like Stoke. Doesn't really match his mentality. Would say a lot about what he thinks of this team if he does.

With his man of the match performance, I'd keep Shay in goal. Guzan hasn't faced competition in three years and I think it's starting to show. I'd also leave Westwood out of the squad to make sure he doesn't take any corners. Given Hutton Vlaar Clark Cissokho Bacuna Delph Cleverley Gil Weimann Benteke

Cleverley and Weimann offer a lot more defensively than Cole and Grealish. Useful to have someone tracking back helping against Puncheon. Not saying we should be that defensive, or that a centre forward should have to even think about tracking runs, but it's not like they don't offer anything. This is exactly why we don't score goals chap. Eeveryone defensive minded!! FWIW I agree.

Absolutely deserves a start. No question. If he's crap, lesson learned. But absolutely he's earned a go.

Cleverley and Weimann offer a lot more defensively than Cole and Grealish. Useful to have someone tracking back helping against Puncheon. Not saying we should be that defensive, or that a centre forward should have to even think about tracking runs, but it's not like they don't offer anything.

After switching formation so recently and Lambo being "delighted" (or whatever it was) with how we played yesterday, he'll definitely not change it much. Andi in for Gabby will be the only change, I'd say. And I think we'll win.

The problem is that so many people associate correlation with causation. If that stopped, e.g. if the difference were taught in schools, then the media wouldn't blurt out all the trivial stats that lack any causal meaning. PS the next time you hear someone say "Villa haven't won in 3 games", remind yourself that they probably won their fourth last match.

Millwall, maybe?

I understand the problems with these estimation techniques, and I like to get the weekly update. But my sense is that your results are too sensitive to current results, Levi. Since mid-September, by your estimation, our chance of coming 18th jumped from 1.9% to 8%. I don't think there's enough information in losing to Arsenal and Chelsea to see a quadrupling in that risk.

Thanks pal. For anyone that's interested, here's the list of season reviews. 1980-1981 1988-1989 1991-1992 1993-1994 1994-1995 1995-1996 1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U999zinLf_A 2000-2001 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gR7SiHvXcgM 2001-2002 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbJRrU0sBko 2002-2003 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9HLyWRzOy4 2003-2004 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bh86QFala3k 2004-2005 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VfP3JwPTjLs

Sorry if I wasn't clear, but I was replying to blandy's mention of "cost", which includes both transfers and wages.

After guiding Villa to third in the league in Football Manager, I took the vacant Man Utd job. I signed Paul McShane for £17m and gave him a six year contract on £250,000 a week. I then resigned and took a job with Barnet. I love that game.

Depends on the correlation between cost and quality, innit? You find the odd bargain (e.g. Benteke) and the mad prices (e.g. Shane Long) but largely cost and quality are fairly correlated. Di Maria cost so much because he's good. Paul McShane doesn't get paid a billion quid a week.

Love how even the camera man bought the dummy.

What are the reasons you would want to change a winning team? We need to set up defensively like we did against Liverpool. Surrender 65% of the ball, but keep the shape. We'll have Cleverley, Delph, and Westwood protecting the centre halves and Gabby harrying everything around the centre circle. I think everyone agrees on that. We'll get the odd counter, and the odd long ball for Gabby to chase, and maybe even a decent cross or two from Andi. But I suspect we'll be short on chances, and I think just about everyone would expect that. By bringing Jack in for Kieran Richardson, you add a little bit more attacking threat. Kieran's been very good and it would be harsh to drop him, but he doesn't create as much as Jack does. And I reckon we'll be more short on creativity/chances than anything else. With Cleverly, Delph, and Westwood also helping out defensively, Jack wouldn't be left as exposed as he would be in a 4-4-2. Also, it's Arsenal. I wouldn't fear for Grealish out there. Either in terms of getting kicked about or being too intimidated by their prawn sandwich fans. What you lose is a solid performance from Richardson, and gain a little bit of a spark. Think we might need creativity more than another solid midfielder.

Would anyone else be tempted to start Jack for this one? Arsenal's midfield aren't exactly Hull.