U.S. Politics

[Awol]

52 minutes ago, blandy said:

I liked your post AWOL, but I think there are other aspects.

Russia, China, USA, even little old UK and many others indulge in hacking, influencing,stealing, spying....

I strongly suspect Russia will have way more dirt on Trump than they have on Clinton. I mean the Clinton stuff - without researching, I bet no one could even say what the wiki leaks email mail trove actually said about her. The actual hacked emails (content) played no problem in the result. The thing that did was merely the story that wiki leaks had a pile "dirt" ( even though it wasn't anything of any significance). The narrative of Trump re "crooked hillary" was reinforced. It was clever, targeted, smart, Russian meddling.

I think Russia has sussed that Trump is a useful idiot and they will use his flaws to their advantage. They're playing him. In some ways he's like putin. They both have a narrative of making their country great again, they are both genuinely crooks, their interest being money and ego and power.

Ultimately the difference is that while Trump is quite canny at the kind of media attacking of domestic critics and rivals, he's an utter novice compared to putin. Trumps wilder fantasies will be restrained by the US system. Putin has no such constraints. He'll have people murdered, tortured, locked up and all the rest of it. He'll eat Trump for breakfast. He's playing him and his ego like a fiddle.

I did say most major countries engage in this stuff all the time so obviously we agree.

There was an attempted penetration into the RNC that failed so it's possible the Russians don't have as much dirt there. That said they may have secured similar from other sources, particularly systems at the third country end of his various business dealings.

If things don't work out between Trump and Putin then like you I'd expect a similarly damaging data dump through a third party - Anonymous, Wikileaks etc.

You may be right that Trump is an incompetent uber mong (time will tell on that score), but I think you possibly mischaracterise Putin. Corrupt, ego maniac, etc - all check. Crucially he's also a genuine super nationalist, possibly bordering on fascist, who is on a sincere personal mission to regain the honour Russia lost in 1989/90. As an ex KGB man he'll feel that particularly keenly.

Becoming a multi-billionaire along the way is simply a bonus...

[mjmooney]

Are the US security services saying that they have proof that Russia hacked the US election? 

If so, I cannot understand how the result can stand. Surely it must be declared null and void? 

[Awol]

33 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

Are the US security services saying that they have proof that Russia hacked the US election? 

If so, I cannot understand how the result can stand. Surely it must be declared null and void? 

No not that they hacked the election, that contract cyber snorklers working as third parties for the Kremlin relieved the DNC of much embarrassing info - the internal conspiracy against Sanders, collusion with the Press to give Hilary debate questions in advance, etc.

The implication being that by making public the awful behaviour of the Democratic Party they may have helped Trump win the election. 

 

[OutByEaster?]

I'm not sure this is so much Trump/Russia vs The USA as Trump vs. a big part of the established USA with Russia a tool he's using to exert his influence. 

The Boeing/McDonnell Douglas thing might be viewed in a similar light, when Cameron won the last election here, he threatened a couple of influential groups in order to strengthen his position - the BBC were brought to heel under threat of losing the licence fee, the Unions were beaten down etc. Boeing are a company that have a history of threatening US governments and heavily lobbying for their own way on things, they're a hugely important company to the US, and indeed the merger with McDonnell Douglas only happened as a way to get hundreds of billions of tax dollars into Boeing to defend it against Airbus (also of course supported by EU tax dollars - socialism at the top, free markets for me and you) in the past, it's threatened to move production from Seattle and been accused of undue influence - Trump has either cleverly fired a shot across their bows or blindly made a stupid enemy, depending on your point of view - but I don't think it's accidental.

Trump is making a very specific group of enemies within the traditional structure of US politics, it's deliberate and I think it's aimed at getting him into a position whereby when he gains full control, he'll be able to dominate policy. I think he's using Russia as a tool on that, to lessen the influence of some of those elements that oppose him within the US power structure.

 

[OutByEaster?]

I wonder how Angela Merkel feels about the US complaining about being hacked?

[Awol]

6 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

I wonder how Angela Merkel feels about the US complaining about being hacked?

Everyone who can does it, it's the getting caught part that causes the embarrassment. 

[StefanAVFC]

14 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Trump is making a very specific group of enemies within the traditional structure of US politics, it's deliberate and I think it's aimed at getting him into a position whereby when he gains full control, he'll be able to dominate policy. I think he's using Russia as a tool on that, to lessen the influence of some of those elements that oppose him within the US power structure.

 

I think it's the total opposite, Russia is using Trump. Trump is a textbook narcissist, it's incredibly easy to get on his good side. Putin knows this. Also, I believe that Trump will use the presidency to line his and others' pockets. The appointment of Tillerson will confirm that in the future. Trump will lift the sanctions meaning Exxon can directly benefit to the tune of billions of dollars. Obama has made a clever play that puts Trump into a corner. He can either go along with the sanctions imposed by Obama and be called spineless or lift them and go against key members of the GOP/senate/CIA/FBI/Dems.

People have talked about Trump's '4D chess' since the start of the election cycle, that everything he does is part of some grand plan.

I think he's a narcissist who can't resist opening his mouth. Listen to him talk, at rallies, in press conferences (his latest one with Don King ffs), his syntax is not one of a hyper-intelligent individual with a grand plan. It's one of a rambling moron. That isn't meant as an insult (as much as I'd love to lay into him) he legitimately can't string sentences together and will break off in the middle of a sentence into something else equally incoherent. 

An example:

Quote

“Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart —you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it’s true!—but when you’re a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it’s four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.”

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by StefanAVFC

[OutByEaster?]

3 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I think it's the total opposite, Russia is using Trump. 

In a strange way, I think both are true. Russia is using Trump to further their interests, Trump is using Russia as a tool to help him in a power struggle that will ultimately help him further his own interests and those of the people who support him.

I don't think either leader can claim that they're representing the people that elected them. It almost seems that's not important any more.

 

[chrisp65]

It's clearly mutually beneficial at the moment. 

The only difference with these 'morons' and despots is that it's being played out in public, with a first person rolling news narrative.

Whereas Cameron / Osbourne / May / Johnson / Fox are clearly utterly competent international players, and China is not despotic. So we pay China to build nuclear power stations here and let them buy our national grid.

China are aggressively pushing their borders outward, they are antagonistic to our allies, they have a human rights records as disgraceful as any anywhere. Yet we are determined to hand them as much trade and infrastructure as they can take.

We might be watching the wrong game.

[StefanAVFC]

This was a weird one from 2013 too. A bit of foreshadowing there.

[MakemineVanilla]

12 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

It's clearly mutually beneficial at the moment. 

The only difference with these 'morons' and despots is that it's being played out in public, with a first person rolling news narrative.

Whereas Cameron / Osbourne / May / Johnson / Fox are clearly utterly competent international players, and China is not despotic. So we pay China to build nuclear power stations here and let them buy our national grid.

China are aggressively pushing their borders outward, they are antagonistic to our allies, they have a human rights records as disgraceful as any anywhere. Yet we are determined to hand them as much trade and infrastructure as they can take.

We might be watching the wrong game.

It seems to confirm that taking on debt reduces your moral choices.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

You may be right that Trump is an incompetent uber mong (time will tell on that score), but I think you possibly mischaracterise Putin. Corrupt, ego maniac, etc - all check. Crucially he's also a genuine super nationalist, possibly bordering on fascist, who is on a sincere personal mission to regain the honour Russia lost in 1989/90. As an ex KGB man he'll feel that particularly keenly.

I don't think I quite said that about Trump! He's smart in terms of how he manipulated things to get what he wants, but he's so deeply flawed that he can be played for an idiot, IMO. He knew how to persuade domestic voters, or enough of them that are fed up with the old system, to get what he wanted. By bluster and lie and obfuscation an allegation and so on - almost preaching to those desperate to be converted is one thing. He can use financial incentives to get planning permission (sometimes) and such like, or over-ride the odd local council issue.

Yet that's surely a completely different game to dealing with Chinese, Russian etc. state interests and leaders and whole set-ups that are aimed at manipulating and protecting and infiltrating and subverting and...etc. to get exactly what they want. Persuading disaffected, often poorly informed or educated voters is not his task, now. But by (seemingly) rejecting the opportunity to use the US's own state "machine", he's being exactly the useful idiot I mean. He's not a team player. He is an individual who has no idea how to use the hidden levers of the US to gain advantage, whereas the Chinese and Russian leaders know exactly how to use the tools at their disposal for their own ends, or those of their nations.

Totally agree with the comments on Putin, btw.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

I wonder how Angela Merkel feels about the US complaining about being hacked?

Well, seeing as the German BND is also at it, along with everyone else, probably less miffed than you might imagine.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

Listen to him talk, at rallies, in press conferences (his latest one with Don King ffs), his syntax is not one of a hyper-intelligent individual with a grand plan. It's one of a rambling moron.

It's partly (IMO) a ploy. He deliberately doesn't use the language of established politicians. He deliberately talks like the people who support him. It's a version of Tony Blair going all mockney sometimes. Or Billy Hague going on a bout knocking back 10 pints and wearing a baseball hat, or Gordon Brown liking the Arctic Monkeys. Make out you're like them is the ploy.

But yeah, he's being played by Putin.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

We might be watching the wrong game.

There are multiple games. China is similar in some ways to Russia (and the US) for sure. But there's a different aspect to China. Currently they are trying to adopt a more open trading approach with the world, investing in the West and so on and represent also a huge market potentially to the West.

Russia isn't. Russia is trying to shed sanctions and caution etc. for invading Crimea and Ukraine and shooting down airliners and assassinating people in the West. While also being fearful of losing further influence.

[OutByEaster?]

18 minutes ago, blandy said:

Well, seeing as the German BND is also at it, along with everyone else, probably less miffed than you might imagine.

Exactly - It would appear only the US reserves the right to be publicly miffed on something they do more of than anyone.

I've got Merkel down as amused.

[StefanAVFC]

27 minutes ago, blandy said:

It's partly (IMO) a ploy. He deliberately doesn't use the language of established politicians. He deliberately talks like the people who support him. It's a version of Tony Blair going all mockney sometimes. Or Billy Hague going on a bout knocking back 10 pints and wearing a baseball hat, or Gordon Brown liking the Arctic Monkeys. Make out you're like them is the ploy.

But yeah, he's being played by Putin.

I think that gives him too much credit. I don't think he's deliberately speaking like that. It's just how he speaks.

He has not practised to speak the way he does. He is just an incoherent rambler. Everything is the same. Press conferences, rally speeches, tweets. He simply is incapable of coherent syntax. 

[Awol]

Not bad...

[blandy]

57 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I don't think he's deliberately speaking like that. It's just how he speaks.

He has not practised to speak the way he does. He is just an incoherent rambler.

OK, let me try and persuade you, using your own Trump quote

Quote

“Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart —you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it’s true!—but when you’re a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it’s four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.”

What's he saying there? Well, what he's saying is this:

Quote

I come from a good family, one with good genes and intelligence. A line of smart people. If I'd have run as a Liberal they'd be proclaiming me as really smart, but the conservative republicans they have a habit of slating people, so I have to remind them, that the people they say are dumb (that's you, left behind America, I'm referring to here) are far from the dumb fodder they claim. I have to keep reminding them I studied hard, I worked hard, I made money (basically I followed the American dream of working hard and getting what I deserved - the thing "they" said you could do, and you want to do - be rewarded for your efforts). Oh and by the way Women are smarter than men (I want to make sure all this stuff about me hating women is not believed). Then a little message for the Iranians re the whole sanctions /giving up Nuclear arms chasing deal - You Iranians are really smart and you got the best of the deal - flattery, but also conveying that he's going to be watching really hard and any false move....

It comes across at first read or listen as garbled gibberish, but there's intent and message and little signals in all the stuff he says, sometimes blatant, sometimes concealed. He's a good persuader of people who just hear "triggers" - I am smart, women are smart, Iranian leaders are smart, work hard, self made man, conservative republicans can't help but slate me - like they slate you and lie to you. Iran, behave or else.

[Awol]

^ Messaging while in character. Not that simple to do.