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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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well lets hope for safety for stoke and Southampton by then both winning their next game, Fulham have lost 5 of the last six, one point in 18, yes thanks to a score draw in a game the opposition keeper didn't have to make a save and they should have lost by a handful.

 

The Sunderland, Stoke and Southampton games could be the key if Wigan do pull off the great escape, could really do with Stoke winning both games against Sunderland and Southampton, that way if Sunderland get the win against Southampton we would be safe,  and if Southampton beat Sunderland we would be Guaranteed safety with one point even if Sunderland Beat Spurs, Never thought I'd say this, but come on Stoke and get those back to back wins!!!!

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Time to make an accumulator for all those results going against us next weekend, if I lose we will stay up, if I win I'm rich.

 

If you lose I will be celebrating. If you win I'll be jumping in the Grand Union Canal!

 

 

Already done that 3 years ago lol

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Regardless of what Baggies fans want, I can't see them wanting to lose 2 on the trot, especially to teams from the bottom half of the table. WBA are still going to want to climb as high as they can get, and for them, Norwich probably looks like an easy win. For the Wigan v Swansea game, I'm purely going to base my prediction on the fact that SURELY Wigan's luck has to run out at some point. They're in the position they're in for a reason, so surely they can't just switch on beat teams from the upper half of the table because they want to. Norwich and Wigan losses would be absolutely phenomenal for us.

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Time to make an accumulator for all those results going against us next weekend, if I lose we will stay up, if I win I'm rich.

 

If you lose I will be celebrating. If you win I'll be jumping in the Grand Union Canal!

 

 

Already done that 3 years ago lol

 

 

PaulC? Which one? The jump or the bet? Please confirm! If it's the jump I'll have to think off throwing myself over the white cliffs of Dover!

 

PS - Please don't tell me you've done that one as well!  :)

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Time to make an accumulator for all those results going against us next weekend, if I lose we will stay up, if I win I'm rich.

 

If you lose I will be celebrating. If you win I'll be jumping in the Grand Union Canal!

 

 

Already done that 3 years ago lol

 

 

PaulC? Which one? The jump or the bet? Please confirm! If it's the jump I'll have to think off throwing myself over the white cliffs of Dover!

 

PS - Please don't tell me you've done that one as well!  :)

 

 

I actually fell in the Stratford canal. It was very muddy and went too near the edge and slipped in lol

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Actually, you can add a bit more into that, just looking at the table. Complete list of Things That Need To Happen For Villa To Be Relegated™ is:

 

 

Wigan take 5 points more than us from Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Villa (H)

 

AND

 

Sunderland take 3 more points than us from Stoke (H), Southampton (H), Spurs (A)

 

AND

 

Newcastle take 2 more points than us from QPR (A), Arsenal (H)

 

AND 

 

Norwich take 2 more points than us from WBA (H), Man City (A)

 

AND 

 

Southampton take 1 more point than us from Sunderland (A), Stoke (H)

 

AND

Fulham equal Villa's points total from their remaining games - Liverpool (H), Swansea (A)

 

AND

 

Stoke equal Villa's points total from their remaining games - Sunderland (A), Spurs (H), Southampton (A)

 

Again, if any one of those things fail to happen, Villa are guaranteed safety

 

 

But that will never happen.
Three misfortunes, that's possible.  
Five misfortunes, there's an outside chance.  
But seven misfortunes? I'd like to see that!
Edited by R.Bear
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Time to make an accumulator for all those results going against us next weekend, if I lose we will stay up, if I win I'm rich.

 

If you lose I will be celebrating. If you win I'll be jumping in the Grand Union Canal!

 

 

Already done that 3 years ago lol

 

 

PaulC? Which one? The jump or the bet? Please confirm! If it's the jump I'll have to think off throwing myself over the white cliffs of Dover!

 

PS - Please don't tell me you've done that one as well!  ;)

 

 

I actually fell in the Stratford canal. It was very muddy and went too near the edge and slipped in lol

 

 

Cheers for clearing that up..................................Dover it is then! ;)

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I really didn't want us to go into the last day without being safe. Everyone is so bunched together that we will be at risk alongside so many other teams. Wigan away who are fighting for their lives will not be easy. A point will see us safe. Tense times!

Edited by jat_r
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Time to make an accumulator for all those results going against us next weekend, if I lose we will stay up, if I win I'm rich.

 

If you lose I will be celebrating. If you win I'll be jumping in the Grand Union Canal!

 

 

Already done that 3 years ago lol

 

 

PaulC? Which one? The jump or the bet? Please confirm! If it's the jump I'll have to think off throwing myself over the white cliffs of Dover!

 

PS - Please don't tell me you've done that one as well!  ;)

 

 

I actually fell in the Stratford canal. It was very muddy and went too near the edge and slipped in lol

 

 

Cheers for clearing that up..................................Dover it is then! ;)

 

 

 

Make sure you get a good jump you don't want to keep bumping into those cliffs on the way down.

I really didn't want us to go into the last day without being safe. Everyone is so bunched together that we will be at risk alongside so many other teams. Wigan away who are fighting for their lives will not be easy. A point will see us safe. Tense times!

 

 

Yes but not as tense as it would have been without those 2 wins

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We're going to win the rest of our games. I'm serious!

 

So far so good. Win well, win ugly... :thumb:

 

 

In the words of that well known Beer Ad:  "Good Call"

 

Keep bringing us good luck Kiwivillan....................so hope you are right!

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Why are we all more nervous now than before the Norwich game is it mentally thinking about the Chelsea game and the fact that Wigan have their game in hand this week. It's very possible that we could beat chelsea. They whole rot began at Chelsea it seems like a premier league story for it to stop against them to. I'm as nervous as anyone else but conspiracies about west brom and Swansea throwing games are very far fetched to me. Man city can still drop from second and Swansea ave them a good game saturday

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Why are we all more nervous now than before the Norwich game is it mentally thinking about the Chelsea game and the fact that Wigan have their game in hand this week. It's very possible that we could beat chelsea. They whole rot began at Chelsea it seems like a premier league story for it to stop against them to. I'm as nervous as anyone else but conspiracies about west brom and Swansea throwing games are very far fetched to me. Man city can still drop from second and Swansea ave them a good game saturday

 

I'm not nervous. We needed to beat Sunderland and Norwich. Job done. Anything else is a bonus.

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What scenario of results would put us down, I believe there is only 1 and the chances of all the results happening are small. Especially as lots of the teams down there still have to play eachother.

 

Wigan take 5 points more than us from Swansea (H), Arsenal (A), Villa (H)

 

Well this is easy enough for them. Beat us and Swansea. Anything against Arsenal is a bonus.

 

Sunderland take 3 more points than us from Stoke (H), Southampton (H), Spurs (A)

 

Sunderland just need to win one of those, which they should. Probably Stoke.

 

Newcastle take 2 more points than us from QPR (A), Arsenal (H)

 

I think this maybe one of our best ways out, Newcastle are shit on the road and I could possibly see QPR getting a point.

 

Norwich take 2 more points than us from WBA (H), Man City (A)

 

Norwich will be going flat out against WBA, that's a massive cup final for them.  They have no other option but to win.

 

Southampton take 1 more point than us from Sunderland (A), Stoke (H)

 

Easy. Beat or draw stoke. May even get something at Sunderland. They are a good outfit. Forget this scenario saving us because it will happen.

 

My comments are in bold. And assuming we'll lose to Chelsea and get beat by Wigan (both quite likely).

 

I don't know how anyone can relax on here the fact is we bloody can't. I think the fact we are in form, got 40 points, won our last 2 matches is proving a bit of a red herring to many, including the bookmakers. 

Edited by supernova26
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You're another who has fallen into this bizarre Wigan-worship trap. They've won 1 in five, they have less points than every other non-relegated team in the league, and you fully expect them to show 3 wins in their last 4 games? Whereas we, one of the most in form teams in the league, you expect to lose to wigan, without really even thinking that it's more likely we'll beat them (form and league position suggests so)

 

I genuinely don't understand it... Wigan are shit

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You're another who has fallen into this bizarre Wigan-worship trap. They've won 1 in five, they have less points than every other non-relegated team in the league, and you fully expect them to show 3 wins in their last 4 games? Whereas we, one of the most in form teams in the league, you expect to lose to wigan, without really even thinking that it's more likely we'll beat them (form and league position suggests so)

 

I genuinely don't understand it... Wigan are shit

 

Out of all the relegation battlers, Wigan's form is only below ours. They can't be all that shit, then.

 

They play Swansea, whose form is relegation fodder (won 2 out of the last 12 games). I suspect Wigan will win that one, which puts them 2 points behind us with 2 games each. Assuming we lose against Chelsea and Wigan lose against Arsenal (both likely), then we need at least a draw against Wigan to stay up or we need to rely on teams around us losing.

 

The good news about all this is our survival is firmly within our own hands. Win 1 of our remaining games and we are definitely up.

Edited by ozvillafan
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I don't think Sunderland will beat Stoke. They've lost their lead goal scorer in Fletcher, and their key creative midfielder in Sessegnon. The only decent goal threat they have left is Adam Johnson and he's been running hot and cold all season. Meanwhile Stoke have found their form at just the right time (by "just the right time," I mean "right after we beat them"). Stoke will know that all three points will pretty much see them safe. I actually think the most likely result is a scoreless draw, but if anyone wins I think it'll be Stoke.

 

Swansea are not actually mathematically safe either, as bizarre as that seems. A draw will probably do it for them and I don't expect them to roll over for Wigan at all. As a "thank you gift" to Martinez? Swansea fans were not pleased with the way Martinez left them and then snapped up some of their best players, although these days they seem to direct more ire towards Brendan Rodgers. In any case, I still think they're due a win, but a draw will do nicely.

 

Also, we're more than capable of beating Wigan on the last day. I hope we're safe by then just like everyone else, but whether we are or not I think we'll stuff them. We're improved immensely since the 3-0 earlier this season, and I don't think they've improved at all.

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Monte Carlo time...

To be relegated

Villa: 0.9%

Fulham: 0.1%

Norwich: 22.6%

Newcastle: 10.5%

Southampton: 0.2%

Sunderland: 4.2%

Wigan: 61.5%

I reckon we're about twice as likely (0.2% for 9th, 1.7% for 10th) to finish top half as relegated.

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