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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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This goes totally against what I've been saying for a while now, but, after today's game I am beginning to wonder if we are actually going down.

As it stands, we can see that we do still have the potential to play good football, it's just about closing out games and we are currently out of the bottom 3 on points and are level on games played. If we can go on a good run we can be up with the table quite quickly...I know we've been terrible recently, but if Lambert can address our defensive issues, I suppose it is possible...Norwich have been gone, safe and now heading towards the bottom 3 again.

I do still think we'll go down, but, that little glimmer of hope is starting to like through the darkness a tiny bit...

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That's the other hope I'm clinging on to... There are signs we could be leaving our slump ( 2nd half last week, today) whilst other teams are getting dragged in (Newcastle, Norwich) I also think Southampton may have committed suicide with the managerial change. Just feeling a touch more optimistic today.

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A centre back (in case Dunne is broken) and a centre mid...that's the minimum.

I'm just surprised that having seen us been so terrible, 45 minutes of fight has really made me hopeful again...

Oh football, you torturous beast...

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I can't see 6 wins in 15 games tbh

We have only managed 4 in 33 !!

Me neither... Could possibly see 4 wins & 6 or 7 draws however taking us to around 38/39 pts.. Big question is would that be enough?

At half time yesterday i was thinking "if we can just hold onto this it could be the one result which will keep us up". Well we couldn't, so it's now all back in the melting pot again..such a shame.

It's a really fine line now & Newcastle is a must win as we have a very limited number of games left that you would think this squad are capable of winning... Newcastle at home is one of those few but it won't be easy of course.

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Yep, at least 5 of those 15 games are non starters in terms of point return

ManUre away

Ci£y home

Chelsea home

Everton away

Arsenal away

That leaves 10 games where we may get something but even some of those look tricky - stoke away, Liverpool home

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Just had a look on comments here to see if they match my views... I am really heartened by this evening. Although inexcusable to lose 2 points from that position, I thought we were a tad unlucky. We have zero breaks of the ball. Yes we are defending poorly at times but we never seem to get the fortunate bounce in the box at either end. We are due some!

We looked decent going forward and had goals in us. We were never massively threatened from open play which much better. And despite this run and all the doom and gloom we still just about have our heads above water. Without question a win would've been massive, but a bit of hope has been restored when last week i thought we were as good as down.

Sums up my view. I walked away from the game yesterday more optimistic than beforehand as one or two other clubs are now being dragged into the mix. Saints, Reading and Wigan will drop in my opinion.

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I'm gonna have a stab at predicting our final points total. I can't see us getting anything out of the aforementioned 5 fixtures. I also think that Liverpool will do us at home. Leaves 9 games in which we are bound to lose at least 1 of them. So, 8 games left to pick up points. I will predict 3 wins and 5 draws. A final points total of 34. I don't know if that will be enough but I can't see us getting more than that.

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Yep, at least 5 of those 15 games are non starters in terms of point return

ManUre away

Ci£y home

Chelsea home

Everton away

Arsenal away

That leaves 10 games where we may get something but even some of those look tricky - stoke away, Liverpool home

Yeah looking at that we have to go for the 6 wins somehow .. Am sure we can get a couple of draws from somewhere too but 6 wins? There really is no margin for error.

Having said that what do we think the safety mark will be this season?

I have just done some calculations looking at all the remaining fixtures for us & the teams "at risk". I got this

..............................W..D..L..PTS

Norwich City............5..4..6....43

Southampton..........2.10..4...38

Newcastle...............3..7..5....37

Wigan.....................4..5..6....36

Aston Villa..............3...4..8...35

QPR.......................4...5..6...32

Reading.................2...6...7..31

Now that has us losing to Wigan on the last day... If we won that we'd replace them as safe however.

Other wins against West Ham, Fulham & Sunderland all at home with losses against Everton (a) Arsenal (a) Man City (h) Liverpool (h) Man U (a) Norwich (a) Chelsea (h) Wigan (a)

Its actually very tight indeed for most of those clubs apart from maybe Norwich.

A bad defeat could put any one of those teams right in it.. but by the same token an unexpected win could save them.

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Here's my little bit of Mystic Meg Movement then -

Newcastle - Win

Everton - Loss

West Ham - Win

Arsenal - Loss

Man City - Loss

Reading - Win

QPR - Win

Liverpool - Loss

Stoke - Loss

Fulham -Win

Man U 0 Loss

Sunderland - Draw

Norwich - Win

Chelsea - Loss

Wigan - Draw

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Yep, at least 5 of those 15 games are non starters in terms of point return

ManUre away

Ci£y home

Chelsea home

Everton away

Arsenal away

That leaves 10 games where we may get something but even some of those look tricky - stoke away, Liverpool home

We will pick up points during these games though, no pressure on the team to get anything makes a difference, as shown against Liverpool. That's not to say were going to win them all but a win and a draw would make a difference.

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Here's my little bit of Mystic Meg Movement then -

Newcastle - Win

Everton - Loss

West Ham - Win

Arsenal - Loss

Man City - Loss

Reading - Win

QPR - Win

Liverpool - Loss

Stoke - Loss

Fulham -Win

Man U 0 Loss

Sunderland - Draw

Norwich - Win

Chelsea - Loss

Wigan - Draw

I would actually agree with pretty much all of that. The only ones I have a little doubt over are the West Ham, QPR and Norwich games. They could very easily go the other way.

I wouldn't be so sure on a stoke win either. They have a lot more points than us but they have only won 2 more games than ourselves so far. I would probs say a draw for that one.

Edited by Tayls
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The Christmas period aside we have been poor but doing enough to stay up. The period coincided with a lot of injuries to key players. After 22 games we have 20 points. Now I know it's not as simple as this but if our squad can avoid key injuries for the remainder of the season then it is possible we can get another 17-18 points which may just be enough to stay up.

A couple of half decent additions to the squad could make a massive different too.

I have changed my vote from yes to no after what I have seen over the last couple of games as I think we have a fighting chance.

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