PB Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 As an aside, a requirement to break even is imo a de facto salary cap of something less than two thirds for a club with Villa's income and fixed outgoings, given the £35m loss figure quoted in that BBC article. Seems like non wage costs are about £45m for that year? (Wages of £80m, Turnover of £90m, loss of £35m) if so, then our wage bill needs to be £45m to comply, not the £60m I had assumed (50% in other words). I dont know what that £45m of fixed outgoings is for? Seems alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Edited as cleared up by PB. Sorry for getting the wrong end of the stick. No, perhaps my use of the term 'over budget' has confused the more pedantic element on here. Your use of the phrase 'over budget' may have meant there was a lack of clarity about what you were actually saying (at least to me). It would appear now that you were talking about general sustainability rather than someone overspending a budget (indeed they may well have actually been under budget - we don't know). The 'budget' I am referring to would be the 67% of wage/revenue 'target' which is I believe the figure UEFA intend to enforce. Again, I've said that I'd be interested to see if the FFP regs have actually put a wage cap as a perentage of revenue rather than it just being conflated with the other discussion about what ought to be a generally accepted maximum. EDIT: The only thing that I can find which mentions UEFA and a wage:revenue ratio is in this from The Times where it says UEFA advises an upper limit of 70% of turnover. Even so, it would strike me that a figure of 67%, as I believe i have said more than once, should be about where the figure should be aimed at. Perhaps it should be. Perhaps it should be less; perhaps it should be more. As I said before, it would be interesting to see the assumptions on which any decision about budgets. forecasts, hopes, desires, wishful thinkings, business plans and so on were made and are being made so that we could be in a better position to analyse the performance. I believe ... I think the club needs to be run on a sustainable footing. We had a shot at buying into the elite, and it didnt work. Now we need to get our figures back in line with our income. . As I said in my previous post, the point of what I was saying was not to judge which is the most reasonable objective but to point out that different objectives would require different plans; and the reasonableness of any plan (within the parameters of reality) depends upon how suitable it is for the attainment of those objectives. Another edit: I agree that the club ought to be run sustainably for many different reasons, the FFP regs being the least amongst them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Seems like non wage costs are about £45m for that year? (Wages of £80m, Turnover of £90m, loss of £35m) if so, then our wage bill needs to be £45m to comply, not the £60m I had assumed (50% in other words). I dont know what that £45m of fixed outgoings is for? Seems alot the larger proportion of that £45m will have been for outgoing transfer fees. That period covers MON's final season including the preceding summer transfer window when MON brought in quite a few players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 is this poll going to be a monthly/quarterly thing, along with our monthly manager approval poll. I guess Randy would have had 100% 12months ago, when MON was still manager and we had just had 2 wembley appearances and were 2 games away from qualifying for the Champions League. the fall from grace (or just short memories) has been amazing, down to 58% now. i would guess this will be the all-time low point, and should improve in future polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amsterdam_Neil_D Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 is this poll going to be a monthly/quarterly thing, along with our monthly manager approval poll. I guess Randy would have had 100% 12months ago, when MON was still manager and we had just had 2 wembley appearances and were 2 games away from qualifying for the Champions League. the fall from grace (or just short memories) has been amazing, down to 58% now. i would guess this will be the all-time low point, and should improve in future polls. Its current circumstances as well, we were close to getting 4th but we were not good enough. That's life, but the chance of ever getting near 4th again is now gone, Probably for good. Not Randy's fault. The way I see it is that mistakes were made with MON and these mistakes are now coming back to haunt us. He was at the Villa 2 years too long that is for sure and for all the progress made over the last 5 years or so the bottom line is we still feed the big clubs with whatever they want and we have won less than under Doug. That's the harsh reality, reality hurts. I don't know what the answer is now, but revenue creation has to be up there and the only way I can see this happening is a new ground or a bigger one + players to fill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Seems the person who warned me about a lack of money to spend was right, still hoping there are wrong and we will bring in the 3/4 more players we need but it seems unlikely. N'Zogbia and Given to replace Friedel, Reo-Coker, Young and Downing (the others who have gone) is not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnlyOne Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Our midfield was brilliant 2 seasons ago due to Milner who done pretty much everything. Our midfield was good last season due to NRC who shut down the opponents midfield. Now, we're in deep trouble in this section. All we have mainly is creativity when you need more than that. The board haven't got a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Seems the person who warned me about a lack of money to spend was right, still hoping there are wrong and we will bring in the 3/4 more players we need but it seems unlikely..Extremely unlikely For me the performance of Randy et al was as expectd in the first 3 or 4 years, nothing too outstanding and I think only excellent when compared to the previous owner In the last 18 months performance has been dire. The benefit of the doubt in me thinks it is naivety. The cynic suspects it was always going to be this way as Randy has said that the plan was always to invest less in year 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Seems the person who warned me about a lack of money to spend was right, still hoping there are wrong and we will bring in the 3/4 more players we need but it seems unlikely. N'Zogbia and Given to replace Friedel, Reo-Coker, Young and Downing (the others who have gone) is not good enough. I'm not all that convinced that there is a lack of money to buy players, just to pay them. Once NZogbia is signed then as AM has said himself, there wont be any more. Will it be good enough? Good enough for upper mid table? I would certainly hope so. Good enough for a top four finish? Very unlikely. I think we just need to re-evaluate where we are going. Should Lerner sell up? Well, who to? It seems to me that of all the recent takeovers Randy is still far and away the standout, perhaps not with the money of the Man City mob but in most other ways. Compare him with the guys in charge at QPR, or the mob just left Liverpool or Carson Yeung etc. We could have done a whole lot worse, and the 40 odd % who voted against him might want to bear that in mind. I'd like him and his henchman to be more honest, in the way McLeish has been in recent days, and I think we can all live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PompeyVillan Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Seems the person who warned me about a lack of money to spend was right, still hoping there are wrong and we will bring in the 3/4 more players we need but it seems unlikely..Extremely unlikely For me the performance of Randy et al was as expectd in the first 3 or 4 years, nothing too outstanding and I think only excellent when compared to the previous owner In the last 18 months performance has been dire. The benefit of the doubt in me thinks it is naivety. The cynic suspects it was always going to be this way as Randy has said that the plan was always to invest less in year 4. I don't think it was planned, I think it was naivety. We gambled for the top 4 in the MON years and it failed, unfortunately we're paying for that now. We didn't know at the time that the initial level of investment would not continue, however it was quite obvious that it was not sustainable by the club's turnover alone. As for Randy himself, he has never made any grandiose promises about what he expects us to achieve. We've been told we aspire to be a top club, but then so does everyone, unfortunately that's not a realistic ambition any more. We'd all like to re-live the glory days and when Randy took over, there was a chance there for us. It didn't work out, and we're having to deal with it now. We were promised the world by an ex chief executive, who left shortly after making the ridiculous claims. There is a difference between the promises made by our ex chief exec (I can't remember his name) and the aspirations expressed by Randy. As rich as Randy is, he's no sheik and nor should we expect him to be. It's not nice to resign yourself to mediocrity, but as you know the game is dictated by money, and we just do not have the financial infrastructure to compete with the best teams in the league. He has been naive financially (he knows that), but I feel he genuinely believed we could break into the top 4 when he first took over the club. I believed for a time too, but it's obvious that time has passed. He's being prudent now, to prevent the club going into unsustainable amounts of debt. Even with the current level of investment in wages and reinvestment of transfer funds we'd struggle to break top 6. However, even with the cut backs, sales and lack of investment, I would still prefer Randy to a filthy rich sheik. Randy does seem to care about the club. You can question his decision making, but I like him and I think he's doing a good job, in difficult circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Seems the person who warned me about a lack of money to spend was right, still hoping there are wrong and we will bring in the 3/4 more players we need but it seems unlikely..Extremely unlikely For me the performance of Randy et al was as expectd in the first 3 or 4 years, nothing too outstanding and I think only excellent when compared to the previous owner In the last 18 months performance has been dire. The benefit of the doubt in me thinks it is naivety. The cynic suspects it was always going to be this way as Randy has said that the plan was always to invest less in year 4. Agree, definitely looks to be extremely unlikely, am just trying hard not to be annoyingly negative. (had some feedback and requests lol) I also agree with what you say about his first 4 years, it was incredible and he could do nothing wrong. Naivety or planned? Well, they did say after year 4 the funding would stop so that suggests one way but of course, that alone (thinking it could work that way) is naive so perhaps it is a bit of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrytini Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I don't understand the need for a new wealthy owner. Either Fair Play rules mean Randy is doing all he is allowed, in which case any owner would be hamstrung, the FP rules are crap, and all fans should be shouting them down (or else Man U rule forver) or they are not to blame and he could do more. He certainly isn't short of money, and has said he is a fan. If any of us had nearly a Billion Pounds how much would we spend each year to make Villa compete ? :? A lot more than is currently the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If any of us had nearly a Billion Pounds how much would we spend each year to make Villa compete ? :? A lot more than is currently the case. Speak for yourself If I had a billion pounds I can think of about a billion better things to do with it than piss it away on a football club tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I don't know what the answer is now, but revenue creation has to be up there and the only way I can see this happening is a new ground or a bigger one + players to fill it. Or trading players. I wonder whether the FFP regulations may actually lead to a larger number of transfers and further inflated transfer fees (and longer contracts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykeyb Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I suspect this pole will refelect how ell the team does this season which is understandable. I think its about time that the owner actually came out and made a statement about our plans from now on, it would help some what, and the General needs to stop posting complete crap in his thread too. Having a go at your customers and posting information as though its fact when it quite obviously is not would be a start. What is our net spend on player purchases since Jan 1st 2009...... Im not sure Lerner is the best we could hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Thing is if Randy isn't providing finance - then by his own admission he isn't providing expertise. These are dark days indeed. Changes are needed at the very top - as much as I wish that wasn't true...its starring us in the face really. The general hoping for 4th ....I ask you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFC-Prideofbrum Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Dark days? If you want to see dark days (in footballing terms) look at the club over the road from us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 for everyone saying randy hasn't been spending... who do you think is making up our financial shortfalls every year. if the downing and young momey isn't there it'll be coz it was used to pay wages in the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mykeyb Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 And who let the club get to this position.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetrov Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Dark days? If you want to see dark days (in footballing terms) look at the club over the road from us! Give it 18 months - we maybe closer to that point than you think. if youre selling £36m of talent - and only investing £13m - the only way is down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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