Scientific Experiment V1#1 R.Lerner/ Board Approval Ratings

[Houlston]

It appears as if our wage bill may have been £384,000 per week over budget for a couple of years.

What should a good, responsible club owner do in that situation?

Maybe not be in that situation in the first place?

Or maybe this was the risk Randy took for CL football with the vision it would be reached in a certain period of time. This qualification was not achieved and now that level of wage is no longer sustainable so a new approach is needed.

So after all these years of being told "At least we're not" we finally find we actually are.

Wooosh, nope i dont know what you are on about.

[ender4]

It appears as if our wage bill may have been £384,000 per week over budget for a couple of years.

What should a good, responsible club owner do in that situation?

Could that not also have been written as:

It appears our revenue was £600,000 per week under budget for a couple of years.

What should a good, responsible club owner do in that situation?

i like that way of looking at it, as in a sense it is our revenue restricting our wage bill, rather than just our wage bill being too high.

the problem is that over 50% of our revenue is fixed (from tv money), and so you have to increase the rest even more.

Have we been doing that? kind of, but not enough.

i'd give Randy Lerner a 5/10 in the category of increasing revenue.

must try harder.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

Changing the target is fine as long as they let us know. We know the target is now survival, they know it and the players know it.

Do we? Do they?

Just because something becomes harder or less realistic doesnt mean that the target should not remain.

I think we do know yes. (Why go to Liverpool / Manure if you are a Villa winger with Bent just arrived?) As I said above, the actions don't match the aim. No where near, not even close. All I am asking for is to treat us with a tiny bit of respect in terms of football knowledge. If we forget about budgets and wages and aims for a moment, what I see on the pitch is what I base things on ultimately. There is no way that this squad of players will get anywhere near the CL and if they do what are they going to do then ?

[Houlston]

Changing the target is fine as long as they let us know. We know the target is now survival, they know it and the players know it.

Do we? Do they?

Just because something becomes harder or less realistic doesnt mean that the target should not remain.

I think we do know yes. (Why go to Liverpool / Manure if you are a Villa winger with Bent just arrived?) As I said above, the actions don't match the aim. No where near, not even close. All I am asking for is to treat us with a tiny bit of respect in terms of football knowledge. If we forget about budgets and wages and aims for a moment, what I see on the pitch is what I base things on ultimately. There is no way that this squad of players will get anywhere near the CL and if they do what are they going to do then ?

United - who can blame him it would of been the same if he was at Spurs.

Liverpool - money and a very influential agent

And there is no way with this squad of players will we be looking at just survival either.

I believe the target hasnt changed its just become much harder to achive and a very difficult way to achieve it has been adopted to due to financial constraints.

[snowychap]

i like that way of looking at it, as in a sense it is our revenue restricting our wage bill, rather than just our wage bill being too high.

Indeed. As your thread the other day suggested, it is a combination of the two (as I assume that the figure PB used to illustrate the wage bill issue was working back based on a sensible wage:revenue ratio).

the problem is that over 50% of our revenue is fixed (from tv money), and so you have to increase the rest even more.

Have we been doing that? kind of, but not enough.

i'd give Randy Lerner a 5/10 in the category of increasing revenue.

must try harder.

Perhaps but I'm not sure how trying harder will actually achieve an awful lot because surely results on the pitch will tend to drive the rest of the revenue possibilities rather than commercial ingenuity and effort.

As I'd expect they did actually sit down and forecast financials when Reform Acquisitions took over, it would be interesting to discover the assumptions on which those forecasts were based.

Were I to guess then I'd probably say it was all geared towards achieving a CL place (and based upon us doing that) with Randy bankrolling that attempt (whether explicitly or implicitly).

It is what is happening having not met that goal which appears to be the difficulty. My suspicion is that plan B wasn't quite thought out as much as it ought to have been (certainly the transition from plan A to plan B doesn't appear to have been).

[VillaCas]

It appears as if our wage bill may have been £384,000 per week over budget for a couple of years.

What should a good, responsible club owner do in that situation?

Maybe not be in that situation in the first place?

Or maybe this was the risk Randy took for CL football with the vision it would be reached in a certain period of time. This qualification was not achieved and now that level of wage is no longer sustainable so a new approach is needed.

So after all these years of being told "At least we're not" we finally find we actually are.

Wooosh, nope i dont know what you are on about.

I read it as "At least we're not Leeds United/Portsmouth etc" - ie gambled on a CL place and lived to regret it

[VillaCas]

And there is no way with this squad of players will we be looking at just survival either.

Wow that's an optimistic view - IMO we have got the weakest squad we've had for years.

Bottom half and looking over our shoulder rather than top half and looking up sadly

[Houlston]

It appears as if our wage bill may have been £384,000 per week over budget for a couple of years.

What should a good, responsible club owner do in that situation?

Maybe not be in that situation in the first place?

Or maybe this was the risk Randy took for CL football with the vision it would be reached in a certain period of time. This qualification was not achieved and now that level of wage is no longer sustainable so a new approach is needed.

So after all these years of being told "At least we're not" we finally find we actually are.

Wooosh, nope i dont know what you are on about.

I read it as "At least we're not Leeds United/Portsmouth etc" - ie gambled on a CL place and lived to regret it

I wondered if it was that but the comparison is so far fetched I just thought it couldnt be.

[Houlston]

Wow that's an optimistic view - IMO we have got the weakest squad we've had for years.

Bottom half and looking over our shoulder rather than top half and looking up sadly

We have an awful lot of quality first team players and hopefully Nzogbia will soon add to that. I dont prescribe to the view that Albrighton isnt ready and this will be the first season for years that we have started with a proper goal scorer. Add to that the like of Delph, Makoun and Ireland I dont see why just because Downing and Young have gone we cant improve on what was a very shit season last year and yet still finished 9th.

[VillaCas]

Wow that's an optimistic view - IMO we have got the weakest squad we've had for years.

Bottom half and looking over our shoulder rather than top half and looking up sadly

We have an awful lot of quality first team players and hopefully Nzogbia will soon add to that. I dont prescribe to the view that Albrighton isnt ready and this will be the first season for years that we have started with a proper goal scorer. Add to that the like of Delph, Makoun and Ireland I dont see why just because Downing and Young have gone we cant improve on what was a very shit season last year and yet still finished 9th.

I really can't agree at all

- Young, Given, Gabby and Bent could be described as "quality"

- Petrov is decent when fit but can only be counted on for half a season

After that

- Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Beye, Heskey, Ireland and Makoun have a lot to prove this season, I'd be surprised if we a describing more than 3 of them as quality first team players by the end of the season

- Some of the youngsters (including Delph) have potential but none can yet be described as "quality first team players"

- Cuellar (sadly) looks like he's on his way out

By my reckoning thats four experienced, quality first teamers and hopefully four more from the "off-form / injury-prone" brigade. That leaves the rest of the squad made up of largely unproven youngsters (of which Albrighton and Clark are the most likely to establish themselves

We struggled last time round and badly needed to revamp a very thin squad. Since then we've lost our two best players, a talented full-back, and an experienced holding midfielder even if N'Zog comes in we are still three short of last years squad which was patently not good enough.

An awful lot of quality, first team players - I don't think so!! An awful lot of overpaid mediocre dross who we would sell in a heartbeat if we could find another team thick enough to take them

I'd like us to sign Parker, Vargas and Dann but it's not likely so if we are not going to buy then we need a couple of frees (Hitz? Upson?) and a couple of Loanees (Naughton?)

Even with them - 9th at very best but I'm expecting 11th with a few hairy moments along the way

[Richard]

It appears as if our wage bill may have been £384,000 per week over budget for a couple of years.

What should a good, responsible club owner do in that situation?

Maybe not be in that situation in the first place?

Or maybe this was the risk Randy took for CL football with the vision it would be reached in a certain period of time. This qualification was not achieved and now that level of wage is no longer sustainable so a new approach is needed.

So after all these years of being told "At least we're not" we finally find we actually are.

Wooosh, nope i dont know what you are on about.

I read it as "At least we're not Leeds United/Portsmouth etc" - ie gambled on a CL place and lived to regret it

I wondered if it was that but the comparison is so far fetched I just thought it couldnt be.

Looking at the comment I quoted not so far fetched is it?

Gambled on future revenue / income from champions league, did not achieve and so has to cut back. So More in common than perhaps some fans feel able to recognise

[Houlston]

I really can't agree at all

- Young, Given, Gabby and Bent could be described as "quality"

- Petrov is decent when fit but can only be counted on for half a season

After that

- Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Beye, Heskey, Ireland and Makoun have a lot to prove this season, I'd be surprised if we a describing more than 3 of them as quality first team players by the end of the season

- Some of the youngsters (including Delph) have potential but none can yet be described as "quality first team players"

Fair enough but thats where we differ, I see Albrighton, Makoun, Ireland and Delph as quality players and all will contribute to the first team plus Nzogbia.

I also dont see why Dunne cant rediscover his form from when we first signed him.

This season will be better than last and I think we'll finish between 6th and 9th. Yes I know we finished 9th last year but I think we'll acquire more points and have a better cup run.

[Houlston]

Gambled on future revenue / income from champions league, did not achieve and so has to cut back. So More in common than perhaps some fans feel able to recognise

Wow and thats where it ends hardly reason to compare our position to that of theirs especially in a "at least were not" type comment. One relegated twice the other relegated and bust. We are still a strong team in one of the hardest leagues in the world.

[BOF]

Exactly Houlston. Plenty of sides have speculated to accumulate. In fact you have to do that to a point in all leagues. What makes Leeds & Pompey what they are is the scale that they did it at. And to compare us to them simply because we all speculated to a degree is nothing but shitstirring in my humble opinion. I also notice that PB's original question hasn't actually been answered. Once you find yourself in the position we were in, what would be the prudent thing to do. Tighten the belt and go again from a better financial position, or continue down the path of Leeds & Pompey just to give some fans a more accurate stick to beat the board with. Because the current one isn't even tenuous.

[Adam2003]

i'd give Randy Lerner a 5/10 in the category of increasing revenue.

must try harder.

Really? As low as 5/10?

As you say the TV revenues are fixed, nothing we can do about that.

We now have the fifth biggest shirt sponsorship of any club in the league (and Man City's is a bit of a joke, so fourth-biggest of proper ones!), our other commercial revenues are up through things like the Fiat deal and other agreements, we have a good shirt deal with Nike (in financial terms if not delivery).

All we can really do to boost it further is sell more seats at the game and get further in competitions. OK, last year was poor on that front, but the previous season we were at Wembley twice. And anyway, this part isn't really what you were referring to.

I mean, I'm not saying 10/10, I think they could and will do more, but we were in the top 20 clubs in Europe for revenue this year - we're moving in the right direction.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

It's an easy exercise to categorise players.

It's easy to think everyone is quality because of the team they play for or the fee or even the wages.

What teams would they start in in the Prem ?

Lower than 4th, to describe them as quality is stretching it a little. They are just good players surely playing in a average side ?

World Class - Rooney

CL class - Van der Vaart

Prem Quality / international - A Young / D.Bent

Good player - Albrighton / Gabby (Not in same class as Bent)

Quality covers many things, consistency is a major one for me in this.

[VillaCas]

I really can't agree at all

- Young, Given, Gabby and Bent could be described as "quality"

- Petrov is decent when fit but can only be counted on for half a season

After that

- Dunne, Collins, Warnock, Beye, Heskey, Ireland and Makoun have a lot to prove this season, I'd be surprised if we a describing more than 3 of them as quality first team players by the end of the season

- Some of the youngsters (including Delph) have potential but none can yet be described as "quality first team players"

Fair enough but thats where we differ, I see Albrighton, Makoun, Ireland and Delph as quality players and all will contribute to the first team plus Nzogbia.

I also dont see why Dunne cant rediscover his form from when we first signed him.

This season will be better than last and I think we'll finish between 6th and 9th. Yes I know we finished 9th last year but I think we'll acquire more points and have a better cup run.

9th to 12th at best - We both know we won't be finishing 6th!!!

Albrighton, Makoun and Delph are squad players but could in time become quality first team players but they're clearly not at the moment.

Ireland, Dunne, Beye, Heskey, Collins, Warnock etc could all recover their form they had 12/18/24 months ago theoretically but I'm not banking on it and neither should AM.

If we REALLY had a squad jam-packed with "an awful lot of quality first team players" I'd agree 6th was a possibility but in the real world a couple of injuries and we'll be in real real trouble

[Adam2003]

Albrighton, Makoun and Delph are squad players but could in time become quality first team players but they're clearly not at the moment

We finished sixth with the likes of Petrov and Reo-Coker playing. Makoun and Delph are a class above them IMHO.

[houllierout]

Albrighton, Makoun and Delph are squad players but could in time become quality first team players but they're clearly not at the moment

We finished sixth with the likes of Petrov and Reo-Coker playing. Makoun and Delph are a class above them IMHO.

pass what your smoking....

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

Albrighton, Makoun and Delph are squad players but could in time become quality first team players but they're clearly not at the moment

We finished sixth with the likes of Petrov and Reo-Coker playing. Makoun and Delph are a class above them IMHO.

The same team with the same players would not get anywhere near 6 th now. I see what you are saying but everyone around us has upped the anti somewhat.