The Arab Spring and "the War on Terror"

[Vive_La_Villa]

There won't be a war but their will be individuals that look for revenge. Then we can continue to feel sorry for all the innocent victims that were killed by the evil terrorist attacks for the rest of our lives.

Maybe even start a war on terror over it.

Terrorism kills basically nobody. More cyclists will die in London than people killed by terrorism. It's a non issue, no rational thinking person would fear it.

Governments though, the love it. Use fear to encroach on civil liberties and privacy in the name of anti terrorism.

It does if done correctly. Google Udham Singh and Bhagat Singh as an example of 'terrorist' acts which did a lot more for India Independence than peaceful protest extremist Hindu Gandhi ever did.

Not that it did much good for India and Sikhs in general but it does show that terror did make a difference in the past.

Edited July 31, 2014 by Vive_La_Villa

[Ads]

Interesting post Awol. Note your point on Saudi Arabia and have to say that I was of the opinion that they were big winners out of Iraq by shipping off all their Whabbist nutters to go and bug the Americans who promptly slotted them. The old AQ in Iraq using dregs from sub-Saharan Africa for their (used in the loosest terms) line infantry as the recruit pool had be thinned.

What's the deal over there now?

Edited July 31, 2014 by Ads

[CVByrne]

Terrorism in modern western world I'm talking about. What if the counter terrorism budget was diverted to road safety and the NHS. How many real lives would be saved?

[Vive_La_Villa]

Terrorism in modern western world I'm talking about. What if the counter terrorism budget was diverted to road safety and the NHS. How many real lives would be saved?

And how much would terrorist acts increase?

[CVByrne]

 

Terrorism in modern western world I'm talking about. What if the counter terrorism budget was diverted to road safety and the NHS. How many real lives would be saved?

And how much would terrorist acts increase?

 

 

In the sums game more lives would be saved though. But we're not really talking about number of lives saved. Nobody thinks as bluntly pragmatic as that. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

Terrorism in modern western world I'm talking about. What if the counter terrorism budget was diverted to road safety and the NHS. How many real lives would be saved?

And how much would terrorist acts increase?

In the sums game more lives would be saved though. But we're not really talking about number of lives saved. Nobody thinks as bluntly pragmatic as that.

Of course they don't. Avoiding illness and a road accident can be controlled to an extent by an indivudual. A terrorist attack could kill anyway. I have no complaints with the money spent to prevent these kind of acts. It's what creates them that makes my blood boil.

[Awol]

Note your point on Saudi Arabia and have to say that I was of the opinion that they were big winners out of Iraq by shipping off all their Whabbist nutters to go and bug the Americans who promptly slotted them. The old AQ in Iraq using dregs from sub-Saharan Africa for their (used in the loosest terms) line infantry as the recruit pool had be thinned.

What's the deal over there now?

In terms of thinning out the nutter population it hasn't worked at all, they are still being radicalised at home in significant numbers, picking up combat experience by the bucket load (yes first in Iraq but then in Yemen and Syria where they don't have legions of western JSOC ninjas breathing down their necks) and without doubt pose the single largest, potentially existential threat to the kingdom. You reap what you so and there is a whirlwind heading Saudi's way when the King falls of his perch.

2003-2014 was the opening act IMHO, the main event is just getting started and no country in the region will come through it untouched by the fallout.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Note your point on Saudi Arabia and have to say that I was of the opinion that they were big winners out of Iraq by shipping off all their Whabbist nutters to go and bug the Americans who promptly slotted them. The old AQ in Iraq using dregs from sub-Saharan Africa for their (used in the loosest terms) line infantry as the recruit pool had be thinned.

What's the deal over there now?

In terms of thinning out the nutter population it hasn't worked at all, they are still being radicalised at home in significant numbers, picking up combat experience by the bucket load (yes first in Iraq but then in Yemen and Syria where they don't have legions of western JSOC ninjas breathing down their necks) and without doubt pose the single largest, potentially existential threat to the kingdom. You reap what you so and there is a whirlwind heading Saudi's way when the King falls of his perch.

2003-2014 was the opening act IMHO, the main event is just getting started and no country in the region will come through it untouched by the fallout.

What do you mean by the last part?

[Xann]

People paid to think about this stuff see very big trouble on the horizon, and frankly it's hard to disagree.

 

They did in the 70s.

 

I think it likely the region has been deliberately destabilised over the last couple of decades by the US, and less wittingly (but perhaps more economically) by the Allies, mainly because of Israel.

 

Now with jihadists from various factions trying to cut the brakes it's really threatening to go proper mental.

 

Actually we're pretty much there already.

[Awol]

Note your point on Saudi Arabia and have to say that I was of the opinion that they were big winners out of Iraq by shipping off all their Whabbist nutters to go and bug the Americans who promptly slotted them. The old AQ in Iraq using dregs from sub-Saharan Africa for their (used in the loosest terms) line infantry as the recruit pool had be thinned.

What's the deal over there now?

In terms of thinning out the nutter population it hasn't worked at all, they are still being radicalised at home in significant numbers, picking up combat experience by the bucket load (yes first in Iraq but then in Yemen and Syria where they don't have legions of western JSOC ninjas breathing down their necks) and without doubt pose the single largest, potentially existential threat to the kingdom. You reap what you so and there is a whirlwind heading Saudi's way when the King falls of his perch.

2003-2014 was the opening act IMHO, the main event is just getting started and no country in the region will come through it untouched by the fallout.

What do you mean by the last part?

There is going to be a long and drawn out fight.

[Awol]

People paid to think about this stuff see very big trouble on the horizon, and frankly it's hard to disagree.

They did in the 70s.

Well they were right to an extent, we got through that last but of the Cold War more by luck than judgement. If you're not familiar with it check out Ex Able Archer in 1983...

[A.J.Rimmer]

 

I assume A.J.Rimmer didn't write that piece..

 

well, only AJ can answer that, it's in a different typeface which suggests it may have been lifted and pasted, but from memory, previous posts regarding views on religion and freedom loving liberal democracies I'd guess it's his own work - but that's a guess

 

we can live in hope that it's just a spoof piece he's lifted from Viz

 

am I perilously close to getting all post on poster here? perhaps I'll park this up 

 

 

 

You're quite right, I wrote it on Word and left it for a day or so before deciding to enter this debate.  Give me a little time and I will try and answer everyone.

[lapal_fan]

 

 

I assume A.J.Rimmer didn't write that piece..

 

well, only AJ can answer that, it's in a different typeface which suggests it may have been lifted and pasted, but from memory, previous posts regarding views on religion and freedom loving liberal democracies I'd guess it's his own work - but that's a guess

 

we can live in hope that it's just a spoof piece he's lifted from Viz

 

am I perilously close to getting all post on poster here? perhaps I'll park this up 

 

 

 

You're quite right, I wrote it on Word and left it for a day or so before deciding to enter this debate.  Give me a little time and I will try and answer everyone.

 

 

careful Mr Rimmer, you could face a backlash..

[A.J.Rimmer]

So Israel is a legitimate liberal democracy and the Palestinians are murdering religious nut jobs. 

 

yep, message understood.

 

Thanks for clearing that up for me, hopefully today the white hats and good guys can shell a few more schools and safe havens and maybe if we're lucky, a petting zoo and an orphanage, that should speed up the demise of the raving psycho nutters at the UN and bring a peaceful resolution to all this. It's particularly important to kill or injure beyond fighting ability those amongst the enemy that are under seven years old, the little bastards. 

 

Part of me wants to reach for the site preferences, part of me knows I need to see this sort of opinion and not presume all people generally, broadly, think alike.

 

 

Yes, Israel is a legitimate liberal democracy.

 

Their government changes as a result of elections... unlike in Gaza.

 

They imprison their politicians for breaking the law... unlike ion Gaza.

 

The TV, the papers and the people are all free to say what they like... indeed, like us, Israelis never stop arguing... you can see it every day.  Hamas, as a couple of years back, is using this current war to murder their critics within Gaza.  I know this is true as two years ago I had lunch with a Gazan whose father was murdered by Hamas.

 

No democracy is perfect, and Israel has to allow for their lunatic fringe religious nutcases... but they do not go around murdering Christians or burning churches like their palestinian neighbours...look a little further afield and Muslims are busy killing other muslims with different brand labels.

 

I am not saying the creation of Israel was right... any more than was the creation of the USA and Australia.  There are arguments on both sides... but we have to deal with the situation we inherited.

 

As for religion, it is of course the elephant in the room.  As you, or was it someone else mentioned, my views on religion are well documented.  They are all stone age superstitions, we tolerate at our peril... this, at least, is a widely held opinion on this site.

 

A year or two back, I argued here that rocket firing was the red line, that if crossed, would draw a military response... like the invasion of Belgium a hundred years ago... and this has proved to be the case, just as Hamas planned.

 

What bothers me when reading the posts of my opponents on this site, is the absolute total and utter absense of any alternative policy to the use of armed force by Israel.  There you all are, wringing your hands about Palestian deaths, but not a word about how to stop the rockets, or their intended victims who really are children.  Mercifully, Hamas are not very good shots. 

 

As for your mention of site preferences... I don't quite understand... are you saying you would like to gag me... if so you're in the wrong place... you should try living in Syria or Iraq, where you would fit in just fine.

[A.J.Rimmer]

 

 

 

careful Mr Rimmer, you could face a backlash..

 

 

The proponents of sanity always have a price to pay... I'm used to it.

[Eames]

Sanity? The deliberate shelling of schools and hospitals that the Israeli's KNOW are packed with women and children is not sanity. Its genocide.

[A.J.Rimmer]

I think AJ Rimmer's post misses the point a tad.

 

While its true to say that in war, killing the enemy and destroying their capability is a good way of winning the argument, it is wrong to suggest that the relatively young people of Gaza are their enemy at all.

 

I think that the people of Gaza want nothing more than what most people have; a quiet life, with family, work and friends. I think they see Hamas as a last resort, the only people apparently willing to stand up for them. I would disagree that the IDF should have carte blanche to do as they wish to the people of Gaza because some of them, in desperation, might have voted for Hamas.

 

If the IDF were degrading Hamas' military capability, while taking steps to form a proper resolution to this long term crisis (a two state system, withdrawl of the settlers in the West Bank that are east of the Green Line, unlocking economic potential via trade and creating peace through a mutual dependancy, helping to stem the ramapant unemployment by opening up the borders etc) then people wouldn't have an issue. They're indescrimnantly, it appears, launching air and artillery strikes into a densely populated area and targetting Joe Average, which is indefinsible.

 

 

I agree with this very reasonable and sensible post... but it still leaves the question of how to proceed.

 

In fairness, I think you would have to grant that previous attempts to reason with any kind of fundamentalists, inside and outside the near east, have been doomed. 

 

One problem Israel faces is that when they cut any kind of deal with the Arabs, they can hold up their end of the agreement because the Israeli government is in control of Israeli policy.  The Arabs, on the other hand, include numerous disparate groupings, so you make peace with one lot and suddenly some new organisation... Black September, Hezbollah, the PLO, the Alternative PLO or the Provisional Alternative PLO start shooting again.

 

Try finding a solution to that problem!

[A.J.Rimmer]

Sanity? The deliberate shelling of schools and hospitals that the Israeli's KNOW are packed with women and children is not sanity. Its genocide.

 

 

No, it is certainly not genocide... but genocide is the stated aim of Hamas as written in their own charter.  Your finger is pointing in the wrong direction.

 

I also object to your use of the word 'deliberate'.  How can you know that?

[Eames]

 

I think AJ Rimmer's post misses the point a tad.

 

While its true to say that in war, killing the enemy and destroying their capability is a good way of winning the argument, it is wrong to suggest that the relatively young people of Gaza are their enemy at all.

 

I think that the people of Gaza want nothing more than what most people have; a quiet life, with family, work and friends. I think they see Hamas as a last resort, the only people apparently willing to stand up for them. I would disagree that the IDF should have carte blanche to do as they wish to the people of Gaza because some of them, in desperation, might have voted for Hamas.

 

If the IDF were degrading Hamas' military capability, while taking steps to form a proper resolution to this long term crisis (a two state system, withdrawl of the settlers in the West Bank that are east of the Green Line, unlocking economic potential via trade and creating peace through a mutual dependancy, helping to stem the ramapant unemployment by opening up the borders etc) then people wouldn't have an issue. They're indescrimnantly, it appears, launching air and artillery strikes into a densely populated area and targetting Joe Average, which is indefinsible.

 

 

I agree with this very reasonable and sensible post... but it still leaves the question of how to proceed.

 

In fairness, I think you would have to grant that previous attempts to reason with any kind of fundamentalists, inside and outside the near east, have been doomed. 

 

One problem Israel faces is that when they cut any kind of deal with the Arabs, they can hold up their end of the agreement because the Israeli government is in control of Israeli policy.  The Arabs, on the other hand, include numerous disparate groupings, so you make peace with one lot and suddenly some new organisation... Black September, Hezbollah, the PLO, the Alternative PLO or the Provisional Alternative PLO start shooting again.

 

Try finding a solution to that problem!

 

We managed in Northern Ireland - a situation with broadly similar issues. It took time and it wasn't easy but it worked.

 

The solution is you work with the reasonable moderates and create a climate where the situation for EVERYONE can improve, by doing so you a) cut off the recruiting process for further militants and make the nutters far more conspicuous. Along side this you also use targetted military intervention on the ground to round up the loonies.

 

What you don't do is respond to every cheap home made bottle rocket with a full scale military intervention.

[peterms]