Dean Smith

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

Funny thing is, no matter how pessimistic I am, the closer match day approaches, the more excited and hopeful I always get, only to have my day ruined .lol

Early opportunity to start a revival tomorrow.

Edited November 4, 2021 by JAMAICAN-VILLAN

[Laughable Chimp]

1 minute ago, Peter Griffin said:

The data in the graph suggests that sacking the manager is the best option as it returns the biggest increase in performance. Also, regression to the mean is a statistical term to describe how random numbers return to the mean following an extreme result or shew. Football performances are not random, they are influenced by the manager, players and other factors from the club. If football results showed regression to the mean tendencies then the clubs like Sunderland would have returned to the PL

 

Regression to the mean in this context does not mean a team will always come back to the same position they were once in. A team's "mean" can change and that's what happened to Sunderland.

The point to take here is that short-term fluctuations in form aren't necessarily indicative of long-term trends and changes. Just as us flying high in the first half of last season seemed to be us "punching above our weight" in hindsight, it's entirely possible that we're in the opposite scenario atm and we'll come back to winning ways soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Peter Griffin]

3 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

 

Regression to the mean in this context does not mean a team will always come back to the same position they were once in. A team's "mean" can change and that's what happened to Sunderland.

The point to take here is that short-term fluctuations in form aren't necessarily indicative of long-term trends and changes. Just as us flying high in the first half of last season seemed to be us "punching above our weight" in hindsight, it's entirely possible that we're in the opposite scenario atm and we'll come back to winning ways soon.

 

I agree that we will have ups and downs and that sometimes we will punch above our weight and sometimes we will be below par. That is only natural. But because our performances are not random e.g. DS selects the team and formation, a player may have a slight knock etc it means (excuse the pun) that we will not regress to the mean like in statistics. There are outside factors that inhibit this from happening

[IrishVilla10]

2 hours ago, Mic09 said:

It is, and it isn't.

I'd say we had a horror show 15 mins against wolves, and 1 'really bad' half against arsenal.

The problem isn't that we had a really bad half against arsenal. The problem is that the last 3 games have all been waaaaay below what we expect, and while not horrendous the points tally still = 0. And I haven't seen a good half in those games either to counter balance the negatives.

But yeah, I would agree that the only, quote, 'really bad' half came against arsenal. 

My comment was also towards the fact he thinks we’ve lost these games due to marginal moments. It is true we’ve only had one “really bad half” but to say we’re losing these games due to marginal moments is delusional In my opinion. 

[TomC]

3 hours ago, IrishVilla10 said:

This is frightening. 

If he means only 45 minutes bad in total, it's a frightening comment. We had much more than 45 bad minutes over the course of four matches.

If he means only once were they bad for a whole half of a match whistle-to-whistle, I can understand it. Spurs we were medicore but not bad, Wolves was 10 bad minutes, Arsenal was an awful first half but much better second, West Ham we were decent in the middle of the match but bad at the start and finish.

I think his point is that we let our concentration down for short spells and that it costs us. I can agree with that point. As manager, he needs to help fix it.

 

[IrishVilla10]

3 minutes ago, TomC said:

If he means only 45 minutes bad in total, it's a frightening comment. We had much more than 45 bad minutes over the course of four matches.

If he means only once were they bad for a whole half of a match whistle-to-whistle, I can understand it. Spurs we were medicore but not bad, Wolves was 10 bad minutes, Arsenal was an awful first half but much better second, West Ham we were decent in the middle of the match but bad at the start and finish.

I think his point is that we let our concentration down for short spells and that it costs us. I can agree with that point. As manager, he needs to help fix it.

 

Yeah I agree with the really bad 45 minutes, it was more the marginal moments comment. We’ve conceded 10 goals in 3 games. 

[IrishVilla10]

Arsenal have 5 new signings playing in their starting 11 and look how well they’re doing, are they rebuilding? We still have a base of 8/9 players who were here last year starting each week. Most importantly the same back 5 who we know are capable of keeping clean sheets in this league. Is our game plan going to be get Bailey fit and get the ball to him on the left? Because I’ve seen nothing to suggest otherwise 

[foreveryoung]

We should follow where Wolves are. They came up had a few good seasons, lost Jota, arguably there best player along with Jiminez, but still the finger was pointed at Nuno for finishing 13th, which wasn't good enough. They have now a new manager in, not the best in his class, but with Jiminez coming back into the team are looking good again, no losses in 7 games. 

Note: This is not called a re-build though!

Sometimes a team just needs freshening up unfortunately. I happy to see how tomorrow goes, the proof will be in the performance, but if we don't win I can see all hell breaking lose.

[Peter Griffin]

19 minutes ago, TomC said:

If he means only 45 minutes bad in total, it's a frightening comment. We had much more than 45 bad minutes over the course of four matches.

If he means only once were they bad for a whole half of a match whistle-to-whistle, I can understand it. Spurs we were medicore but not bad, Wolves was 10 bad minutes, Arsenal was an awful first half but much better second, West Ham we were decent in the middle of the match but bad at the start and finish.

I think his point is that we let our concentration down for short spells and that it costs us. I can agree with that point. As manager, he needs to help fix it.

 

In fairness to Dean, I think he said 45 mins of 'really bad' football which could imply the rest was just 'bad'. Either way, we were shyte for the last 4 games

[Peter Griffin]

6 minutes ago, IrishVilla10 said:

Arsenal have 5 new signings playing in their starting 11 and look how well they’re doing, are they rebuilding? We still have a base of 8/9 players who were here last year starting each week. Most importantly the same back 5 who we know are capable of keeping clean sheets in this league. Is our game plan going to be get Bailey fit and get the ball to him on the left? Because I’ve seen nothing to suggest otherwise 

and look at Palace, they must have 8 or 9 new players and a new manager thrown in for good measure

[foreveryoung]

But but, we're rebuilding

[Vive_La_Villa]

19 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

We should follow where Wolves are. They came up had a few good seasons, lost Jota, arguably there best player along with Jiminez, but still the finger was pointed at Nuno for finishing 13th, which wasn't good enough. They have now a new manager in, not the best in his class, but with Jiminez coming back into the team are looking good again, no losses in 7 games. 

Note: This is not called a re-build though!

Sometimes a team just needs freshening up unfortunately. I happy to see how tomorrow goes, the proof will be in the performance, but if we don't win I can see all hell breaking lose.

Should results of the next 2 games define whatever the plan is though ? Let’s say we win them both but get destroyed in both but some how sneak 1-0 wins does they mean all is rosey again?  On the other hand what if we play brilliantly but get unlucky with dodgy decisions and miss loads of guilt chances ending up losing them both?
 

If Smiths days are numbers then should 2 more games change that?

Edited November 4, 2021 by Vive_La_Villa

[Blasterpocket68]

2 hours ago, Laughable Chimp said:

The problem is that the odds of us attracting a top manager whilst Dean has us as a consistent midtable club is minimal. Look at the teams that you expect to be midtable by years end, how many of them have managers that were considered top managers when first hired? Hell, Newcastle have all the money in the world and it looks like they're getting Eddie Howe. 

If we're waiting around for a top manager to become available to want to come to Villa, we'll be waiting forever. Its just not happening. And even if a top manager became available, this forum will throw a hissyfit if we sack Smith when he only has us at comfortably midtable. So 2 rare events have to coincide for it to be "acceptable" to sack Smith. Smith has to severely underperform and a top manager has to be available and want to come to Villa. Both events have to happen simultaneously. The idea that its only acceptable to sack a manager if and only if that exceedingly rare scenario happens is ridiculous. 

 

Money talks - you offer any manager enough they will come . 
if the owners are really serious they could sell the project to any manager with the appropriate resources to back him. 
This Depends how Hungary and how quickly they want to get there. 
Dont think they are looking at a quick fix building sound foundations progression with good youth set up. 
it’s unlikely that Dean will be sacked based on the strategy we are on , unless the obvious poor form continues into the new year. 
let’s hope he turns this all around … 

[foreveryoung]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Should results of the next 2 games define whatever the plan is though ? Let’s say we win them both but get destroyed in both but some how sneak 1-0 wins does they mean all is rosey again?  On the other hand what if we play brilliantly but get unlucky with dodgy decisions and miss loads of guilt chances ending up losing them both?
 

If Smiths days are numbers then should 2 more games change that?

We could lose the next 2 on dodgy decisions, 20 shots on target but no goals.  Unfortunately though I think it's gone to far for it to still be unlucky. We should really be beating Southampton if we are looking to progress.

He'll be in the poo poo I've no doubt!

[Vive_La_Villa]

11 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

We could lose the next 2 on dodgy decisions, 20 shots on target but no goals.  Unfortunately though I think it's gone to far for it to still be unlucky. We should really be beating Southampton if we are looking to progress.

He'll be in the poo poo I've no doubt!

But if we win based on a dodgy var decision but still look like dog shit will it not be papering over the cracks?

I have a feeling his days are numbered at Villa regardless. 

Tbh I can’t see us winning anyway. Friday night away games are the worst. Fans pissed up and crowd rocking. Especially for a team that love to press. The crowd give them that extra energy. 
 

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow.

[Peter Griffin]

19 minutes ago, Blasterpocket68 said:

Money talks - you offer any manager enough they will come . 

I don't believe that would work with the elite managers. Pep is on 25m a year, we offer him 35m and he won't come to us. He wants to compete at the highest level just like players do and the elite managers already have enough cash that a pay rise won't have any material impact on their life. Same goes for Klopp and Conte etc. But a manager like Potter would leave for the money imo

[Peter Griffin]

5 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

But if we win based on a dodgy var decision but still look like dog shit will it not be papering over the cracks?

I have a feeling his days are numbered at Villa regardless. 

Tbh I can’t see us winning anyway. Friday night away games are the worst. Fans pissed up and crowd rocking. Especially for a team that love to press. The crowd give them that extra energy. 
 

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow.

Also, if it is so close that we are losing by a dodgy decision we wouldn't be playing too well to be in that position

[Peter Griffin]

7 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow.

Its Friday, its the weekend, what good possibly go wrong 

[Zatman]

14 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

But if we win based on a dodgy var decision but still look like dog shit will it not be papering over the cracks?

I have a feeling his days are numbered at Villa regardless. 

Tbh I can’t see us winning anyway. Friday night away games are the worst. Fans pissed up and crowd rocking. Especially for a team that love to press. The crowd give them that extra energy. 
 

I’ve got a bad feeling about tomorrow.

Leicester put 9 past them at St Marys on a Friday night

[Peter Griffin]

20 minutes ago, Zatman said:

Leicester put 9 past them at St Marys on a Friday night

The benchmark has been set