Israel, Palestine and Iran

[omariqy]

It’s just another way to collectively punish a population

[Jareth]

I just don't understand why the UK government follows the Israel lead, in step. WellI I should say the English government.

Strikes me that this was used as a stick against the ICJ, to pressure them into a watered down decision, what else explains the immediate punishment of the UN agency? 

Edited January 28 by Jareth

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, Jareth said:

I just don't understand why the UK government follows the Israel lead, in step. WellI I should say the English government.

Strikes me that this was used as a stick against the ICJ, to pressure them into a watered down decision, what else explains the immediate punishment of the UN agency? 

The ICJ has already given its provisional ruling, and the full ruling about whether genocide was committed is going to take literally years (we’re quite possibly talking a decade away). This matter isn’t going to change anything about either ruling.

Yes, it’s perfectly possible Israel is releasing damaging material on the UN to try and further its own aims, but you think the court case from SA should be considered on its own merits despite them not being a trustworthy source. The same should apply to allegations made by Israel.

It’s perfectly sensible for countries to temporarily pause funding an organisation that is alleged to be paying salaries to Hamas members while they investigate the matter. Canada isn’t exactly a noted warmonger but they’ve done the same thing.

If this gets used as an excuse to permanently end aid to Palestinian refugees then sure, I can see the issue. Even if this agency is compromised there should be other ways to get aid to the Palestinians. It’ll be a few weeks before we know if that’s happened though.

[Jareth]

19 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

The ICJ has already given its provisional ruling, and the full ruling about whether genocide was committed is going to take literally years (we’re quite possibly talking a decade away). This matter isn’t going to change anything about either ruling.

Yes, it’s perfectly possible Israel is releasing damaging material on the UN to try and further its own aims, but you think the court case from SA should be considered on its own merits despite them not being a trustworthy source. The same should apply to allegations made by Israel.

It’s perfectly sensible for countries to temporarily pause funding an organisation that is alleged to be paying salaries to Hamas members while they investigate the matter. Canada isn’t exactly a noted warmonger but they’ve done the same thing.

If this gets used as an excuse to permanently end aid to Palestinian refugees then sure, I can see the issue. Even if this agency is compromised there should be other ways to get aid to the Palestinians. It’ll be a few weeks before we know if that’s happened though.

We are talking about 12 alleged Hamas people in this UN aid agency - I don't actually know how many people they employ as have seen various numbers but we are talking tens of thousands. They are hardly compromised. You are right, there should be other ways to get aid in, but do you know who is preventing this? The most desperate people in the world at this moment have had their only lifeline removed - why? I mean what is the real reason, because 12 blokes is not a reason. 

[magnkarl]

6 hours ago, Jareth said:

So the UN agency, the 12 or so employees out of 30000, have radicalised kids? Pretty sure every time Israel execute a civilian it has a radicalising effect. And also - where has this UN agency issue come from exactly? Literally the day after Israel is ordered by the ICJ to stop being all genocidal - we get this undermining of the UN by the Israel side. BS. 

I'd caution against calling it BS when it's been reported on a lot, several years before this most recent wave.

UNRWA Teachers Incite terrorism

Quote

Before a joint subcommittee hearing today of the U.S. Congress concerning the U.N., Israel, and the Palestinians, the director of the independent monitoring group UN Watch will testify and present a new report showing 40 alarming new cases of UNRWA school teachers in Gaza, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria whose Facebook pages incite to Jihadist terrorism and antisemitism, including by posting Holocaust-denying videos and pictures celebrating Hitler.
UN Watch sent letters this morning to U.N. chief António Guterres, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and U.S. envoy to the U.N. Nikki Haley, urging them to take action and demand U.N. and UNRWA condemnation of the incitement, and the immediate termination of the implicated employees.

It's not new, and it's not the first time Western nations have stopped aid because of UNRWA's clearly partial idiocy.

Or here, from 2021, where the EU council have condemned the UNRWA for printing books for kids with all sorts of extremism in them.

Quote

The use of hateful school materials, sponsored by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), is a widespread practice in Palestinian schools. These books encourage violence, reject peace, and demonise both Israel and the Jewish people. Furthermore, the UNRWA’s lack of effective mechanisms to ensure adherence to UN values is appalling.

It doesn't fit the narrative though, so carry on carrying on. UNRWA has an atrocious history of essentially funding Hamas, Assad, Hezbollah and whichever terrorist group is the flavour of the day whenever it suits them.

Edited January 28 by magnkarl

[Panto_Villan]

39 minutes ago, Jareth said:

We are talking about 12 alleged Hamas people in this UN aid agency - I don't actually know how many people they employ as have seen various numbers but we are talking tens of thousands. They are hardly compromised. You are right, there should be other ways to get aid in, but do you know who is preventing this? The most desperate people in the world at this moment have had their only lifeline removed - why? I mean what is the real reason, because 12 blokes is not a reason. 

I don’t think the UN agency is the only organisation with access to Gaza, but even if they were then I doubt they lack the financial reserves to operate for a couple of weeks at normal capacity while some of their funding countries temporarily pause donations.

As I said, it becomes a problem if this turns into a prolonged thing, but if it’s resolved in a week or two it probably won’t have any operational effect at all.

[Jareth]

18 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I'd caution against calling it BS when it's been reported on a lot, several years before this most recent wave.

UNRWA Teachers Incite terrorism

It's not new, and it's not the first time Western nations have stopped aid because of UNRWA's clearly partial idiocy.

Or here, from 2021, where the EU council have condemned the UNRWA for printing books for kids with all sorts of extremism in them.

It doesn't fit the narrative though, so carry on carrying on. UNRWA has an atrocious history of essentially funding Hamas, Assad, Hezbollah and whichever terrorist group is the flavour of the day whenever it suits them.

Dude - the timing of it. What do you make of that? FWIW, I don't blithely deny any of what you've posted, but what about the people that need aid? Its collective punishment. Again. 

[Genie]

3 US troops killed, and 25 injured in an “Iran backed” drone attack in Jordan.

Lots of people in the middle East having pot shots at the Americans, time for another invasion?

[sne]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

3 US troops killed, and 25 injured in an “Iran backed” drone attack in Jordan.

Lots of people in the middle East having pot shots at the Americans, time for another invasion?

Yeah the rules clearly say that it's only the US that are allowed to kill people with drones. This wont stand.

[Jareth]

It sort of makes sense that the US go to town with Iran - save us all the foreplay. 

[TheAuthority]

WW3 incoming?

[chrisp65]

I think from memory, that Iran is pretty well defended by its geography. I don’t see any sort of Iraq style land invasion. But that’s not to say that the U.S. wouldn’t start taking out military buildings and nuclear sites.

I also suspect there would be more people broadly supportive of their government than the U.S. encountered in Iraq. Maybe. To some extent Iran has had an eye on resisting any U.S. action for 45 years. 

[Chindie]

Iran, even with decades of being in the political wilderness and being marginalised by the West, isn't a pushover. It remains somewhat a regional power despite its ostracisation, and is also a religious power - going to war with Iran would be like going to war with the entirety of Shia Islam.

Regime change there would also completely reshuffle the Middle East dynamics.

You wouldn't go into that war lightly.

[Panto_Villan]

Yeah, war with Iran would be a big thing. As mentioned above, they're basically the dominant regional power after the US put the smackdown on Iraq and Israel are tied up with the Palestinians and Hezbollah.

There's a couple of problems with trying to fight them. The first is that there's not very far from having nuclear weapons, and if they come under attack they'll almost certainly start sprinting the final stretch. I forget what their current breakout time is estimated to be, but it's not long. Two weeks, maybe? Perhaps two months? Basically the US and Israel would need to find all the Iranian enrichment sites, which are often buried deep underground, and destroy them all before Iran enriches enough uranium to build nukes. Not the easiest task in the world. But who knows what would happen if Iran lobbed a nuke at Israel, or just fired it at the US carrier group parked off their coast? Not sure anyone really wants to find out.

The second problem is that they've got quite a large army, and a lot of regional proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah. They're not exactly a high-tech force but they've been involved in a lot of fighting and they're not going to be a pushover. There's also twice as many people in the country as there were in Iraq. And does Biden even have the political support at home for a major war in the Middle East? There's a lot of isolationists in the the Republican camp.

I don't envy anyone who has to make the decisions here. There's no easy answers so far as I can see.

[magnkarl]

20 hours ago, Jareth said:

Dude - the timing of it. What do you make of that? FWIW, I don't blithely deny any of what you've posted, but what about the people that need aid? Its collective punishment. Again. 

What timing? As far as I can see this has been a recurring issue with UNRWA since about 2016 when Norway noticed that one of the schools they were sponsoring had books which essentially told kids that collective punishment of women was a okay and that women belong to the man.

Just because you haven't heard about it, doesn't mean that it hasn't been an ongoing thing for years. You should really read some of the sources that were put to you.

The UN has been in a tailspin since they essentially let genocide happen in Srbrenica, and now it's essentially varying wings of the organisation's subgroups (like UNRWA) doing whatever they please.

UNRWA shouldn't be the organisation that is delivering aid, it's totally morally bankrupt, and feels more like the way Christianity used to convert poor people in the middle ages - bread for your soul. There's plenty of organisations that deliver aid alongside them, we should be giving our money to DSF (DWB), Red Cross\Half Moon, Save the Children ++++, at least then we're not recruiting school kids into extremist Islam like UNRWA's support networks seem to be doing.

Edited January 29 by magnkarl

[DJBOB]

17 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Yeah, war with Iran would be a big thing. As mentioned above, they're basically the dominant regional power after the US put the smackdown on Iraq and Israel are tied up with the Palestinians and Hezbollah.

There's a couple of problems with trying to fight them. The first is that there's not very far from having nuclear weapons, and if they come under attack they'll almost certainly start sprinting the final stretch. I forget what their current breakout time is estimated to be, but it's not long. Two weeks, maybe? Perhaps two months? Basically the US and Israel would need to find all the Iranian enrichment sites, which are often buried deep underground, and destroy them all before Iran enriches enough uranium to build nukes. Not the easiest task in the world. But who knows what would happen if Iran lobbed a nuke at Israel, or just fired it at the US carrier group parked off their coast? Not sure anyone really wants to find out.

The second problem is that they've got quite a large army, and a lot of regional proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah. They're not exactly a high-tech force but they've been involved in a lot of fighting and they're not going to be a pushover. There's also twice as many people in the country as there were in Iraq. And does Biden even have the political support at home for a major war in the Middle East? There's a lot of isolationists in the the Republican camp.

I don't envy anyone who has to make the decisions here. There's no easy answers so far as I can see.

Yeah and Iran knows this. Biden doesn't want a war. Republicans are caught between 'nuke' them and let the ME burn. Democrats don't want a war but are afraid of what the appearance of doing 'nothing' will look like.

The American populace in general polls against the war.

I think if Iran were smart, they would keep it contained in the area and continue trying to assert their dominance and bleed out Israel (economically, public opinion, etc). Hezbollah and other Iran proxies have not been too involved in US attacks since the 80s and if they avoid taking the bait to carry out attacks in the US, then they could probably succeed in consolidating their power in the ME though I'm sure Saudia Arabia, Qatar, and the rest of OPEC royalty will have their say as well.

The cost of doing nothing from the US perspective is high in the long term, but against both public opinion and political optics in the short term. They will probably continue to provide arms (Lockheed and Raytheon always win!) to their own proxies - whether it be Ukraine or Israel or what appears to be increasingly possible, Jordan, as well as drones and targeted air strikes but US boots on the ground will remain the last involvement until someone **** up.

Edited January 29 by DJBOB

[Jareth]

5 hours ago, magnkarl said:

What timing? As far as I can see this has been a recurring issue with UNRWA since about 2016 when Norway noticed that one of the schools they were sponsoring had books which essentially told kids that collective punishment of women was a okay and that women belong to the man.

Just because you haven't heard about it, doesn't mean that it hasn't been an ongoing thing for years. You should really read some of the sources that were put to you.

The UN has been in a tailspin since they essentially let genocide happen in Srbrenica, and now it's essentially varying wings of the organisation's subgroups (like UNRWA) doing whatever they please.

UNRWA shouldn't be the organisation that is delivering aid, it's totally morally bankrupt, and feels more like the way Christianity used to convert poor people in the middle ages - bread for your soul. There's plenty of organisations that deliver aid alongside them, we should be giving our money to DSF (DWB), Red Cross\Half Moon, Save the Children ++++, at least then we're not recruiting school kids into extremist Islam like UNRWA's support networks seem to be doing.

Well Norway and Spain appear not to agree with this assessment and are maintaining funding - so perhaps it’s not such a slam dunk certainty that the work of UNRWA is so despicable. What was it again? 12 blokes? Allegedly? And from Israeli interrogation? That’s some blind faith right there. 

[Chindie]

Insert sardonic joke about Norway and Spain being inherently anti-Semetic.

[chrisp65]

It’s quite fascinating. 

You literally fence in a people for generations, an absolute strangle hold on their lives and the economy.

Then express distress that bad agents have got in there and influenced people. Express alarm that when the only income available to tens of thousands of people is work for the aid agencies, some taking UN jobs turn out to be working for or sympathising with the bad guys.

No **** shit Sherlock!

It’s almost like the entire restricted movement, minimised opportunity of displaced people / refugees is a system designed to perpetuate the very problem it claims to be trying to end.

 

 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Jareth said:

Well Norway and Spain appear not to agree with this assessment and are maintaining funding - so perhaps it’s not such a slam dunk certainty that the work of UNRWA is so despicable. What was it again? 12 blokes? Allegedly? And from Israeli interrogation? That’s some blind faith right there. 

How many UNRWA school teachers and curriculi do you think should be promoting Stone Age Islamism? Wall Street Journal seem to indicate that there’s at least 1200 people connected to Hamas within UNRWA. Does that sound too many?

The EU as a whole condemned UNRWA, PA and Hamas for this very thing in 2021.

Just like criticism of Israel shouldn’t be dismissed solely based on who is making it, allegations against Palestinian affiliated causes and groups shouldn’t just be dismissed because Palestine is popular. It’s gone on just as much in all of UNRWAs other areas of operations, not just Palestine. the cynic in me has this down to Qatar’s funding of this group, being all for the Muslim Brotherhood.

Edited January 29 by magnkarl