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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


maqroll

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8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I don’t know how you can say they aren’t working.

I get all my diamonds from Khaszakstan now, magically they have a booming diamond trade nobody knew about and were able to exactly fill the gap in the market left by Russian sanctions. 

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20 minutes ago, villa89 said:

It just tells you that these economic sanctions don't really work, especially in dictatorship countries like China, Iran and Russia. Russia is still selling oil, gas, diamonds etc. They might hurt economically in the long term but they don't stop wars. Europe/NATO use these sanctions as a way of avoiding the topic of entering in the war on Ukraine's side which is what they should have done in the first place. 

They might not work to stop the war but it’s certainly better than just carrying on as normal.

They are hurting Russia, just not to the degree that they pull the troops back.

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1 hour ago, villa89 said:

It just tells you that these economic sanctions don't really work, especially in dictatorship countries like China, Iran and Russia. Russia is still selling oil, gas, diamonds etc. They might hurt economically in the long term but they don't stop wars. Europe/NATO use these sanctions as a way of avoiding the topic of entering in the war on Ukraine's side which is what they should have done in the first place. 

I said upthread about how sanctions work/don't work. (I don't expect you to scroll back and read everything!) They're not meant to block everything completely, but to make things more expensive, complicated and difficult, and the more complicated and difficult it is for Russia to eg export oil or import high tech bits, the easier it is to disrupt. As a result of sanctions, Russia has less money, things take longer and are easier to disrupt. If things are completely blocked from getting in or out, then that is a bonus.

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Sounds like something serious is up. I thought it might be Iranian nuclear programme at first but hints now it might be Russia related. We should fine out fairly soon, though. The fact discussion with allies was referenced in the statement implies a European dimension. Very unusual. 

 

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Maybe they’ve found some proof about the MAGA crew and their funding.

Seems Norway are very involved in Ukraine’s sea drone programme, someone’s traced the programming to Norwegian defence firms. Makes sense, and this is likely how Norway would respond to a Russian seaborne invasion.

It’s likely also been ‘let out’ by Norway to warn Russia what would happen if they tried something with their remaining fleet.

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34 minutes ago, Awol said:

Sounds like something serious is up. I thought it might be Iranian nuclear programme at first but hints now it might be Russia related. We should fine out fairly soon, though. The fact discussion with allies was referenced in the statement implies a European dimension. Very unusual. 

 

I would speculate it's related to Trump/ Putin/Russia and Tucker Carlson.

But just wildly guessing.

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Speculation that a Russian satellite launched 5 days ago with a classified payload may be carrying a nuclear warhead or warheads. 

That would be an interesting escalation, if it turns out to be correct.

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4 minutes ago, Awol said:

Speculation that a Russian satellite launched 5 days ago with a classified payload may be carrying a nuclear warhead or warheads. 

That would be an interesting escalation, if it turns out to be correct.

That doesn't sound realistic to me. Can't imagine launching a nuclear warhead on a rocket made of combustible fuel is hugely safe. And how do you decommission the satellite at its end of life? Can't just crash a nuke into the sea. 

 

My guess is election interference or Russian funding Trump/MAGA indirectly. 

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It would be good timing if it was MAGA-related, as it would tighten up republican support for Ukraine and likely unseat Johnson. It'd also likely mean a landslide for the Dems.

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Here's to Norway. I also guess they've profited quite intensely from the rise in oil prices due to the war so they can afford it.

Interestingly EU deals have Malta, Ireland, Luxemburg and Cyprus over both Canada and the U.S..

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12 minutes ago, Genie said:

ITV news just reported on it as breaking news, no details except for believed to be related to Russia 

it might still be something that non-nuclear, but given the flap in the US that seems unlikely.

If you think about space like a littoral zone that touches every part of the earth, nukes positioned in orbit are the equivalent of attacking a country from offshore but really close to its coastline. Seconds of warning before impact, zero opportunity for anti ballistic missile defences to intercept. 

If it is a nuclear weapon then it’s an attempt to overcome existing defences and gain a first strike advantage in any potential conflict. 

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2 minutes ago, Awol said:

it might still be something that non-nuclear, but given the flap in the US that seems unlikely.

If you think about space like a littoral zone that touches every part of the earth, nukes positioned in orbit are the equivalent of attacking a country from offshore but really close to its coastline. Seconds of warning before impact, zero opportunity for anti ballistic missile defences to intercept. 

If it is a nuclear weapon then it’s an attempt to overcome existing defences and gain a first strike advantage in any potential conflict. 

Surely this will push this Ukraine deal through faster than you can say potatoes right?

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6 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Surely this will push this Ukraine deal through faster than you can say potatoes right?

In a sane world, yes. But in sane world it would’ve been passed last September. Unless Trump flips to backing Ukraine, which he absolutely won’t, this probably changes nothing.

 The thing that’s got everyone in the US scurrying around could just be some kind of new anti-satellite system, but the scale of the flap is highly unusual, which is what makes me think it’s likely nuclear related. 

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