Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

14 minutes ago, peterw said:

Only the big historic ones of France and Nazi Germany. There are many other small incursions.

I think the British/French/Ottoman invasion of Crimea when it was part of the Russian Empire was more than a small incursion.

It also bizarre that the Nazi invasion would give Russia a fear of the West.  Particularly as Russia and the Nazis were allies in 1939 and the West gave Russia massive amounts of help to defeat the Nazis.  Without the UK and US help Hitler would have taken much more of Russia.  

[peterw]

2 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

I think the British/French/Ottoman invasion of Crimea when it was part of the Russian Empire was more than a small incursion.

It also bizarre that the Nazi invasion would give Russia a fear of the West.  Particularly as Russia and the Nazis were allies in 1939 and the West gave Russia massive amounts of help to defeat the Nazis.  Without the UK and US help Hitler would have taken much more of Russia.  

small compared to what France and Germany inflicted - which was occupation of Moscow and major cities but I take your point. 

 

As for the pact it was a non-aggression pact rather being allies in the conventional sense, and even if they were allies that was soon turned on its head.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

3 hours ago, peterw said:

 

As for the pact it was a non-aggression pact rather being allies in the conventional sense, and even if they were allies that was soon turned on its head.

I am afraid not.  They attacked Poland together and split the country between them.  

Russia then slaughtered thousands of Poles with their hands bound in the Katyn Massacres.  When the massacres were discovered the Russians came up with the explanation "The Nazis did it."  

Is it any wonder that Poland joined NATO?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre

Quote

Katyn Massacre 22,000 victims

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Mandy Lifeboats]

On 10th Aptil 2022 a convey of Russian Bulldozers surrounded the Katyn monument and threatened to demolish it.  The crowd were chanting "Come to your senses you simple Poles." 

They threatened to demolish a monument to the victims of their own war crimes.  

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Spelling mistake

[sidcow]

Bearing in mind they now think peak Oil and Gas use will be 2028. That is very very near future. 

After that global oil and gas consumption will start to fall and I've a feeling it will fall much quicker than many think. 

Right now is the absolute peak for Russia to secure it's future by making as much money from it's Oil and Gas to invest for it's long term future. 

Instead Putin has pretty much emptied his coffers and destroyed his economy whilst ensuring that at the most important years of his Oil and Gas profits he's lost his prime markets and having to flog it all off on the cheap. 

He's totally blown his countries future.  His army is in tatters and he won't have the money to rebuild it.. The poor quality of his equipment has been laid bare so he probably won't be able to sell much of it. 

They have literally no future. Their grade A natural resources will be worthless.  All they will be able to sell to the world is farm produce. 

He's blown it totally. 

[tinker]

The title should be changed , its not Russia wars its Putin's

[blandy]

3 hours ago, sidcow said:

Their grade A natural resources will be worthless…

He's blown it totally. 

No and yes.  Resources are what they are They have value and always will, but yeah, he has spannered it.

[LondonLax]

10 hours ago, sidcow said:

Bearing in mind they now think peak Oil and Gas use will be 2028. That is very very near future. 

After that global oil and gas consumption will start to fall and I've a feeling it will fall much quicker than many think. 

Right now is the absolute peak for Russia to secure it's future by making as much money from it's Oil and Gas to invest for it's long term future. 

Instead Putin has pretty much emptied his coffers and destroyed his economy whilst ensuring that at the most important years of his Oil and Gas profits he's lost his prime markets and having to flog it all off on the cheap. 

He's totally blown his countries future.  His army is in tatters and he won't have the money to rebuild it.. The poor quality of his equipment has been laid bare so he probably won't be able to sell much of it. 

They have literally no future. Their grade A natural resources will be worthless.  All they will be able to sell to the world is farm produce. 

He's blown it totally. 

I agree that he’s wasted a great opportunity off the back of oil and gas. However Russia is so large that they will have other opportunities with whatever resources come next after oil. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

25 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

I agree that he’s wasted a great opportunity off the back of oil and gas. However Russia is so large that they will have other opportunities with whatever resources come next after oil. 

Global warming is turning huge areas of frozen wasteland into agricultural land. 

[sidcow]

9 hours ago, blandy said:

No and yes.  Resources are what they are They have value and always will, but yeah, he has spannered it.

They'll never have another resource as valuable as Oil and Gas have been. 

Possibly Perovskite for solar panels but it's never going to be expensive and mass produced enough to replace oil and gas income. 

And of course once it's been extracted it can be recycled for future use.  And as panels get more efficient they'll need less of it and new materials will probably replace it anyway. 

They need to use their huge land mass to feed the world. It may actually be why Putin has tried a land grab. 

I'm not saying they'll have zero natural resources, just not something like Oil and Gas that can drive the eye-watering wealth the Oligarchs have had in addition to propping up the entire nation. 

[sidcow]

2 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Global warming is turning huge areas of frozen wasteland into agricultural land. 

Maybe but you're never going to earn anything like as much from farm produce as from Oil and Gas. Not close. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Maybe but you're never going to earn anything like as much from farm produce as from Oil and Gas. Not close. 

Not at the moment.  But as global warming destroys farmland nearer the equator we could easily see massive food shortages. 

Fertile land and fresh water will keep a country going forever. Oil and gas will not. 

 

[sidcow]

3 hours ago, LondonLax said:

I agree that he’s wasted a great opportunity off the back of oil and gas. However Russia is so large that they will have other opportunities with whatever resources come next after oil. 

What comes after oil though? 

There are many and varied battery chemistries and many more in development. Most of which are very much based on globally easily available materials. 

Silicon will remain the main solar panel material which you can get from anywhere. 

I don't think for the foreseeable future there is going to be any kind of resource that will be like Oil and Gas which can on its own generate enough revenue to enrich a whole nation. 

What they probably could do is develop massive land based wind turbine farms.  Morocco are doing just this.  That would be a good future for Russia. 

Then again Nuclear Fusion really does seem fairly close now. The UK is currently building a full size reactor they're that confident it is round the corner.  That may even end the need for wind power. 

I just think Russia and Middle Eastern states should be spending every penny they earn in investment because what they earn in the next 10 years could be their final hurrah to generate serious money internally as a nation. 

[sidcow]

3 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Not at the moment.  But as global warming destroys farmland nearer the equator we could easily see massive food shortages. 

Fertile land and fresh water will keep a country going forever. Oil and gas will not. 

 

But also the global population is predicted to fall.  The Western world is already experiencing low birth rates. China is only on 1.3 births per woman and even India is creeping towards Les than 2 births per woman. 

[chrisp65]

4 minutes ago, sidcow said:

What comes after oil though? 

There are many and varied battery chemistries and many more in development. Most of which are very much based on globally easily available materials. 

Silicon will remain the main solar panel material which you can get from anywhere. 

I don't think for the foreseeable future there is going to be any kind of resource that will be like Oil and Gas which can on its own generate enough revenue to enrich a whole nation. 

What they probably could do is develop massive land based wind turbine farms.  Morocco are doing just this.  That would be a good future for Russia. 

Then again Nuclear Fusion really does seem fairly close now. The UK is currently building a full size reactor they're that confident it is round the corner.  That may even end the need for wind power. 

I just think Russia and Middle Eastern states should be spending every penny they earn in investment because what they earn in the next 10 years could be their final hurrah to generate serious money internally as a nation. 

This new nuclear power, will it be so cheap its not worth metering it?

I believe that was the promise 70 years ago, so its nice that its now imminent.

 

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

This new nuclear power, will it be so cheap its not worth metering it?

I believe that was the promise 70 years ago, so its nice that its now imminent.

 

It won't be cheap. At least not in the early days. But it does sound like it's close now despite the running joke it's always 20 years away. 

Personally I can't wait to chuck a few banana skins into Mister Fusion before activating the Flux capacitor. 

[foreveryoung]

21 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

This new nuclear power, will it be so cheap its not worth metering it?

I believe that was the promise 70 years ago, so its nice that its now imminent.

 

Your tripping if you think it will be cheap. No oil and gas to profit from, the billions have to still line pockets of the fat cats.

[blandy]

36 minutes ago, sidcow said:

And as panels get more efficient they'll need less of it and new materials will probably replace it anyway. 

As yet undiscovered new materials. Russia is enormous. Who knows what resources are there, undiscovered under the tundra?  It’s inconceivable that such a huge area has no further useful minerals etc.

In the long term Russia will likely re-integrate into the world, perhaps because of the path China is on, perhaps because of a change in the way Russia is run once Putin is gone. It may take a long time, of course, but the world is changing ever more rapidly.

[chrisp65]

14 minutes ago, sidcow said:

It won't be cheap. At least not in the early days. But it does sound like it's close now despite the running joke it's always 20 years away. 

Personally I can't wait to chuck a few banana skins into Mister Fusion before activating the Flux capacitor. 

Newsnight last night was worth a rewatch.

They were showing Russian oil tankers, in the Med off Greece, transferring oil to western tankers. They take it to India, where it’s processed, mixed in with ‘legit’ oil and sold around the world including europe and the UK. Done in daylight of Greece, traceable. We’re still buying and consuming Russian oil.

I said it many months ago, we know exactly how much military equipment to give, we know exactly what sanctions to monitor to what degree.

Russia has reduced oil production, our pump prices have gone up. Coincidence?

We’ll be using oil for a long long time.

[blandy]

2 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Newsnight last night was worth a rewatch.

They were showing Russian oil tankers, in the Med off Greece, transferring oil to western tankers. They take it to India, where it’s processed, mixed in with ‘legit’ oil and sold around the world including europe and the UK. Done in daylight of Greece, traceable. We’re still buying and consuming Russian oil.

I said it many months ago, we know exactly how much military equipment to give, we know exactly what sanctions to monitor to what degree.

Russia has reduced oil production, our pump prices have gone up. Coincidence?

We’ll be using oil for a long long time.

I don’t watch Newsnight, but I think you give too much credit, if that’s the right word, to our ability to “control”. On sanctions, it’s easy to say or legislate, but extremely hard to enforce outside a nations borders. On military equipment, the UK is giving as much as we can, given the constraints in place regarding production lines, parts availability (chips) and so on.

The oil price is not affected that much by Russia alone. The Saudis and OPEC are raking it in by not increasing their production to make up the fall in Russian output. Same income, lower production levels.

Places like Turkey are kind of sitting in the middle, part of NATO and the west, but not part of the EU and with trading and political links to Russia.  Mediterranean nations are simultaneously struggling with migrants and patrolling the seas and being asked to also, without extra crews and boats to monitor cargo ships and so on. Then there’s corruption and bribes and backhanders…

Basically there’s a limit as to how much we can genuinely control.