LondonLax Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 There is still the old ferry route that runs back and forth. It will be a long wait but it’s not like people have to drive all the way around to get back to Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Anyone still going to Crimea on holiday deserves what they get tbh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 A daytime view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 58 minutes ago, allani said: ..... how much of the attack is aimed at disrupting supply chains and how much is actually an assault on Moscow's credibility / reputation given how important the Kerch Bridge is to Putin personally. If the defences have been weakened then surely it would be worth another attack on the bridge in the coming days? ..... If leaving via the bridge is not possible then how long are you going to be comfortable having the "land bridge" as your only exit route? 1. Its both. 2. Yes an no. First reports are that the rail section is not heavily damaged. It might be worth taking this down. But taking the bridge out in nu euros places and making it unrepairable would allow Russia to relocate the assets presently defending it. It's probably best to keep them in place because they are a wasted resource 99.9% of the time. 3. This isn't quite true. Russia has ample ferries, military ships, aircraft and helicopters that could evacuate Crimea. But Putin would never agree to this. The troops in Crimea will be fighting to the death and/or starving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 35 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: 1. Its both. 2. Yes an no. First reports are that the rail section is not heavily damaged. It might be worth taking this down. But taking the bridge out in nu euros places and making it unrepairable would allow Russia to relocate the assets presently defending it. It's probably best to keep them in place because they are a wasted resource 99.9% of the time. 3. This isn't quite true. Russia has ample ferries, military ships, aircraft and helicopters that could evacuate Crimea. But Putin would never agree to this. The troops in Crimea will be fighting to the death and/or starving. On Point 2 - I wasn't proposing destroying the bridge. More that a second attack in a different part of the bridge would make it more difficult for the Russians to repair it and also, like you say, force them to put more resources into defending it from further attack. On Point 3 - I was really meaning before a full-out Russian state backed evacuation. For example, if you're a Russian living in Crimea, the chances are that you're going to be pretty concerned about how things are going. Can you trust the Russian military to keep you safe? Can you trust the Russian military not to just retreat and leave you to your own devices? Can you trust Russia to ensure that military and civilian personnel are evacuated if / when it comes to that point? As you imply - the answer to most of those is probably no. So I think that the temptation for Russians (rather than native Crimeans) to try and leave whilst it is still relatively safe to do so is probably quite high. It is almost certainly going to get less easy / less safe in the coming weeks and months. It seems highly likely that Russians left behind if the territory is surrounded / cut off from Russia will be abandoned by Putin and anyone there will be left behind too. If I was a Russian school teacher who'd been sent to a school in Crimea for example then I'd probably be thinking that an extended trip "home" to see family was overdue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 (edited) Damage Edited July 17, 2023 by allani Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted July 17, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted July 17, 2023 Kerch bridge damaged and The Kremlin are halting the export of grain deal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Just now, trekka said: Kerch bridge damaged and The Kremlin are halting the export of grain deal . Not an issue. Turkey already announced that the grain deal would do ahead with the Turkish Navy protecting Ukrainian and Neutral ships. Russia could never agree to that. The bridge is just an excuse. Turkey is finished playing with Russia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Is Russia's tactic to just keep grinding on and hope that Trump gets elected again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 11 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Is Russia's tactic to just keep grinding on and hope that Trump gets elected again? Keep grinding, wait for NATO to get tired of the conflict, get peace treaty, keep the eastern part of Ukraine under de facto Russian control, Invest in the Eastern part of Ukraine and then over the next few decades naturally assimilate those regions into the Russian Federation. Side effects may include bankrupting the Russian Economy, massive depopulation issues, terrorist activities inside Russia and eastern Ukraine, loss of influence in global politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 15 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: Is Russia's tactic to just keep grinding on and hope that Trump gets elected again? I don’t think even Trump would back out of supporting Ukraine / opposing Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted July 17, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Genie said: I don’t think even Trump would back out of supporting Ukraine / opposing Putin. You must be joking, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Just now, trekka said: You must be joking, right? What do you think he’d do? He might not be quite so generous with the arms and weapons but actually taking the US out of it won’t happen. He knows he can’t do that. He said he’d pull the US out of NATO but never did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekka Posted July 17, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Genie said: What do you think he’d do? He might not be quite so generous with the arms and weapons but actually taking the US out of it won’t happen. He knows he can’t do that. He said he’d pull the US out of NATO but never did it. You're probably right but this is the guy who once said he'll "end the war in one day". Basically, his view is that Ukraine must give up land and Russia must agree to say sorry and never to attack again. Who knows what happens after that when inevitably that fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, trekka said: You're probably right but this is the guy who once said he'll "end the war in one day". Basically, his view is that Ukraine must give up land and Russia must agree to say sorry and never to attack again. Who knows what happens after that when inevitably that fails. Exactly, he’ll call Zelensky who will tell him why he isn’t going to agree to it and how it would destabilise Europe which is very bad news for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony Posted July 17, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted July 17, 2023 Trump may say he's withdrawing all support, he may say he stands with Ukraine and will continue support. The only thing you can count on is that he will not do what he says he will do. I would expect him to be publicly as negative as he can get away with, but behind the scenes bury everything in paperwork and 'checks' to bring everything to a grinding halt. Whilst giving his mates lots of high paying jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 20 minutes ago, Anthony said: Trump may say he's withdrawing all support, he may say he stands with Ukraine and will continue support. The only thing you can count on is that he will not do what he says he will do. I would expect him to be publicly as negative as he can get away with, but behind the scenes bury everything in paperwork and 'checks' to bring everything to a grinding halt. Whilst giving his mates lots of high paying jobs. The one thing I was thinking about was the love affair the US has with overseas conflicts and that since Afghanistan they have hundreds of thousands of troops waiting for something to do. Could Trump go the other way, call Putin’s bluff and stick loads of US boots on the ground in Ukraine to push the Russians back and claim to be the hero that saved the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 56 minutes ago, Genie said: I don’t think even Trump would back out of supporting Ukraine / opposing Putin. Trump has said multiple times that he could end the war in a day. He hasn't got a ****ing clue. He'd come up with some half-assed treaty that his mate Putin (and let's face it if Trump wins the next election then Russian bots whipping up Trump's fan-base with crazy-ass ideas about his Republican opponents being closet Democrats and Democrats being aliens - have you seen how many of his fan base wear T-shirts stating that they would rather be a Russian than a Democrat - will have played a massive part in winning it for him) would lap up knowing that in reality it is completely un-workable. So Putin would agree to it, Ukraine wouldn't because it would inevitably include them giving up land - and now Putin's entire war is justified because Putin was willing to sign a treaty proposed by Trump and the war-mongering Ukrainians have rejected it. This would then put the USA in a position where there is no legitimate way that they can continue to support the war (without admitting that their President is a ****ing moron who shouldn't even be trusted with the remote for a TV) and so they would be obligated to withdraw support. Which then puts NATO in a difficult position too - because how can NATO support a war in which the USA has made Ukraine the aggressor? Trump is literally the only hope that Putin has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 34 minutes ago, Genie said: Exactly, he’ll call Zelensky who will tell him why he isn’t going to agree to it and how it would destabilise Europe which is very bad news for everyone. If you think that Trump will discuss whatever "treaty" he announces with Ukraine, I think you are being incredibly naive. Trump will announce some nonsense plan to stop the war. Putin will agree because he knows that there is no hope of it coming into reality and Ukraine will reject it because it will ignore every statement they have ever made about not conceding land. Trump has now made Ukraine the aggressor and has single-handedly done what Putin has single-handedly failed to do - legitimise the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, allani said: If you think that Trump will discuss whatever "treaty" he announces with Ukraine, I think you are being incredibly naive. Trump will announce some nonsense plan to stop the war. Putin will agree because he knows that there is no hope of it coming into reality and Ukraine will reject it because it will ignore every statement they have ever made about not conceding land. Trump has now made Ukraine the aggressor and has single-handedly done what Putin has single-handedly failed to do - legitimise the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Trump can come up with whatever he likes but a proposal of a treaty will need more than just his signature on it. No other western leaders will sign it which will make Trump and the US look stupid and out of touch which is the reason I don’t see that idea getting off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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