Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Chindie]

NATO entering the war proper is a massive escalation that may present an existential risk to the Russian regime, which in turn brings nuclear escalation into play and potentially world ending risks.

To that end, Russia isn't going to poke the bear and NATO is going to be very, very, very reticent to get involved. Article 5 is a dangerous gamble for all involved - is NATO really going to put its neck on the line for less than an outright and obvious act of war against it? And how strong is the commitment to Article 5 when, for instance, Washington is a long, long way away from the problem? Equally, is Russia willing to lay everything on the line in the hope any action either doesn't trigger the alliance or the alliance breaks? And for the conspiratorially minded - is Ukraine willing to make that gamble?

[magnkarl]

At this stage you don't even need the alliance to split up. 2-3 Eastern European NATO powers have enough firepower to bring Russia's SMO to its knees with air power alone. Poland is fast becoming Europe's most advanced land army. Add in the Baltics, Slovakia and the other victims of Russian oppression and Russia wouldn't stand a chance.

Russia won't use nukes unless they're attacked on Russian territory (not Crimea, not South Osstia, not Donetsk or Luhansk) China will go to war with anyone who attacks first with non-conventional weapons. Russia won't dare imo.

If the wind blows from the North you've also got NATO's second largest land army involved in Turkey, Erdogan is a douche, but he protects Turkey above all. I don't think Putin is as stupid.

Edited July 5, 2023 by magnkarl

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

China has a policy of "no first use" on nukes.  This has been in place for some time and it's a commitment that even the UK will not make. 

China would walk away from Russia and remove all support.  They might even be inclined to take the opportunity to take back some disputed border areas.  

Edited July 5, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[veloman]

Some people on here may have studied the History of WW2 at school/collge etc. I did the Industrial and Agrarian Revolutions so have no Academic knowledge of that War. However, I recently watched a Documentary where an academic suggested that The Allies should tried harder to negotiate with Hitler to form an Alliance to face the threat from Russia ; who he considered the real  threat/enemy. Given that Hitler was mad and totally untrustworthy, could this have worked and would the World be safer now ? N.B. Negotiate NOT appease.

[bickster]

11 minutes ago, veloman said:

Some people on here may have studied the History of WW2 at school/collge etc. I did the Industrial and Agrarian Revolutions so have no Academic knowledge of that War. However, I recently watched a Documentary where an academic suggested that The Allies should tried harder to negotiate with Hitler to form an Alliance to face the threat from Russia ; who he considered the real  threat/enemy. Given that Hitler was mad and totally untrustworthy, could this have worked and would the World be safer now ? N.B. Negotiate NOT appease.

Was he a complete gibbon? Russia and Germany were allies at the start of WW2. Germany invaded Poland from he west whilst Russia did it from the east. the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was being discussed from the end of 1938. Not only that but much like modern times, Germany only produced 25 % of its oil and gas needs. In times of peace they got most of he rest from the USA but that couldn't happen during wartime so they need another supply, which almost had to involve Russia. There's no way at the outset of WW2 that Hitler was turning on Stalin, he couldn’t afford to.

[magnkarl]

10 minutes ago, veloman said:

Some people on here may have studied the History of WW2 at school/collge etc. I did the Industrial and Agrarian Revolutions so have no Academic knowledge of that War. However, I recently watched a Documentary where an academic suggested that The Allies should tried harder to negotiate with Hitler to form an Alliance to face the threat from Russia ; who he considered the real  threat/enemy. Given that Hitler was mad and totally untrustworthy, could this have worked and would the World be safer now ? N.B. Negotiate NOT appease.

Patton wanted to move on Stalin as soon as Hitler was defeated. That was the chance, USSR had no nukes and essentially over extended their army into Europe. It’s too late now, but it’d save millions of lives.

[magnkarl]

While the world is focused on ZNPP Ukraine is steadily surrounding Bakhmut, they’ve taken over 1000 pows in the forests West of Klischiivka just today according to Mailar.

ZNPP is providing very valuable opsec-silence for UAF.

[avfc1982am]

2 hours ago, veloman said:

Some people on here may have studied the History of WW2 at school/collge etc. I did the Industrial and Agrarian Revolutions so have no Academic knowledge of that War. However, I recently watched a Documentary where an academic suggested that The Allies should tried harder to negotiate with Hitler to form an Alliance to face the threat from Russia ; who he considered the real  threat/enemy. Given that Hitler was mad and totally untrustworthy, could this have worked and would the World be safer now ? N.B. Negotiate NOT appease.

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 hour ago, veloman said:

Some people on here may have studied the History of WW2 at school/collge etc. I did the Industrial and Agrarian Revolutions so have no Academic knowledge of that War. However, I recently watched a Documentary where an academic suggested that The Allies should tried harder to negotiate with Hitler to form an Alliance to face the threat from Russia ; who he considered the real  threat/enemy. Given that Hitler was mad and totally untrustworthy, could this have worked and would the World be safer now ? N.B. Negotiate NOT appease.

There was absolutely no benefit from an allegiance with Hitler.  He had an irrational hatred of Jews, was an exceptionally poor military leader and made terrible strategic errors. 

 

[chrisp65]

23 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

There was absolutely no benefit from an allegiance with Hitler.  He had an irrational hatred of Jews, was an exceptionally poor military leader and made terrible strategic errors. 

 

A sort of proto Corbyn?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[avfc1982am]

A bit graphic towards the end. 

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Overnight attacks in Lviv, Western Ukraine. I wonder who was hiding in these residential buildings

[Mandy Lifeboats]

 

Very spectacular. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 minute ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

 

Very spectacular. 

At 2:05 keep your eyes on the top right of the screen. You can see the Russians launch something that comes crashing down into the city.  I am guessing its an air defence missile???

[Genie]

Lukashenko telling the world that Prigozhin isn’t in Belarus, he’s in St Petersburg.

[villa89]

33 minutes ago, Genie said:

Lukashenko telling the world that Prigozhin isn’t in Belarus, he’s in St Petersburg.

I'm sure the FSB death squad will believe him. 

[Genie]

15 minutes ago, villa89 said:

I'm sure the FSB death squad will believe him. 

Maybe he is fed up of being asked where Prigozhin is staying so decided to make his hide-out public knowledge.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

The Ruble began the day at 114 to the pound.  After 1 hour of trading it was 119 to the pound.   

Its recovering slightly.    But it's losing 1% a DAY at the moment. 

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

35 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The Ruble began the day at 114 to the pound.  After 1 hour of trading it was 119 to the pound.   

Its recovering slightly.    But it's losing 1% a DAY at the moment. 

 

 

Russia now admits that revenue from gas and oil has dropped by 47%. 

The slight recovery in the exchange rate today was the Russians buying $30 billion worth of rubles with foreign currency reserves.