Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Genie]

3 hours ago, Jareth said:

Ukraine can only end the war by securing their future, either by themselves or by a greater power guaranteeing it. I think ultimately this is about other countries finding the solution, while in the meantime Ukraine try their best to kick Russia out, which I hope they do. 

The problem with kicking Russia out is that they’ll always be there lurking, gobbing off and threatening another invasion.

If Russia are not going to rid the world of Putin then Ukraine & Russia need some kind of deal/truce/ceasefire agreement. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

4 hours ago, villakram said:

UK leaves Ireland, Falklands, Gibraltar and grants Australia/Canada full independence.... oh, right we're not talking about history, we're talking about now, so let's ignore that.

Ok…….let’s deal with some of those.  

Gibraltar was given to the UK.  It was not taken by force. 
 

Australia and Canada are independent. 
 

The Falklands may not be British but the definitely aren’t Argentinian. Argentina didn’t exist when the British first set foot on the Falklands. 

 

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

Only to pacify idiots. 

Have you not watched any of the propaganda currently being spouted by the Russians?

Putin can pull out of Ukraine and claim an imaginary victory if he wants. The Russians stupid enough to believe the current propaganda will believe whatever he says is the truth, and the ones smart enough to pretend to believe the propaganda will continue to do that too. Because he still controls all the levers of power - something that's unlikely to change if he decides to pull out of Ukraine.

He just doesn't want to do that (yet).

Edited March 13, 2023 by Panto_Villan

[Panto_Villan]

19 minutes ago, Genie said:

The problem with kicking Russia out is that they’ll always be there lurking, gobbing off and threatening another invasion.

If Russia are not going to rid the world of Putin then Ukraine & Russia need some kind of deal/truce/ceasefire agreement. 

No truce / ceasefire is worth the paper it's written on. There was an agreement after Ukraine gave up its nukes that none of the nuclear powers would attack it, and there was a ceasefire after the 2014 invasion that didn't settle the issue either.

The only way Ukraine will ever be safe from Russia is by having a sufficiently strong military and / or being in NATO, and they'll probably have both of those things once the war is over.

[Mic09]

1 hour ago, fruitvilla said:

I understand ... My heritage is Latvian. I can say my parents' generation in exile did feel sold out by Churchill though. Worryingly though, we have a track record: the aftermaths of wars like Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan x2, and Iraq to guide us to avoid such an outcome.

Oh sure, my family feels similar. But that's without a deeper understanding of what someone who just lived through Pashendale must have felt about going gung ho on the Germans again. 

[villakram]

6 hours ago, sidcow said:

I mean the people of Australia and Canada have full independence. 

The people of Gibraltar and The Falklands WANT to be part of the UK and would take exception to bring told they've got to be ruled from elsewhere. 

Now if we went into Australia, bombed them to shit and murdered thousands of women and children and tortured and mutilated hundreds more saying it's because they should never have had the independence we gave them, then yes you'd be right on the money. 

You did all that. Just a long time ago.

tic, tok...

[villakram]

2 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Ok…….let’s deal with some of those.  

Gibraltar was given to the UK.  It was not taken by force. 
 

Australia and Canada are independent. 
 

The Falklands may not be British but the definitely aren’t Argentinian. Argentina didn’t exist when the British first set foot on the Falklands. 

 

Just like America didn't exist when the Europeans arrived... etc., etc.

The Falklands, Gib (given, lol) were taken for the geo-strategic importance. Freedom and democracy for some.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

5 hours ago, villakram said:

Just like America didn't exist when the Europeans arrived... etc., etc.

The Falklands, Gib (given, lol) were taken for the geo-strategic importance. Freedom and democracy for some.

Gibraltar was absolutely given to the UK. What’s your version of how it became ours? 

[bickster]

This topic is about Ukraine and Russia at war. You want to talk about something else, either do it in an appropriate topic or if one doesn’t exist, start a new one.

[magnkarl]

9 hours ago, Mic09 said:

That is some big time hindsight thinking. The people making decisions back then we're the same people who experienced, first hand, the worst conflict in human history just 20 years earlier. They had to do anything to avoid a 2nd one that's similar, and rightly so. 

I'm Polish, and I have no hard feelings. Because the stakes were another millions dead - and I can't make such big time moral calls with a clear conscience. 

I'm Jewish, and I wish Chamberlain wasn't such a soft idiot when it came to Hitler. It cost me most of my extended family who lived in Poland at the onset of the war.

With the hindsight fresh in mind, we can however make sure that Putin, Russia or China NEVER tries this again.

Chamberlain's version of pacifism was in direct support of a totalitarian regime, and he knew it. As Orwell stated pacifism is objectively pro-fascist. It's the reason why so many of the people we thought were 'lefties' are now pro-Russian.

Edited March 14, 2023 by magnkarl

[Mic09]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

I'm Jewish, and I wish Chamberlain wasn't such a soft idiot when it came to Hitler. It cost me most of my extended family who lived in Poland at the onset of the war.

With the hindsight fresh in mind, we can however make sure that Putin, Russia or China NEVER tries this again.

Chamberlain's version of pacifism was in direct support of a totalitarian regime, and he knew it. As Orwell stated pacifism is objectively pro-fascist. It's the reason why so many of the people we thought were 'lefties' are now pro-Russian.

Or he was a man who was scared to send another million British people to their deaths. Sometimes I don't think we appreciate what WW1 did to the entire nation. And likely it would have meant Britain losing the war and the German influence would have spread further for longer - German army was top notch back at the start of the war. 

No good choices can be made here. We face Putin militarily? WW3. We don't? Putin does what he pleases in Eastern Europe. 

What a shit show. 

[tinker]

This war weakens Russia considerably and the longer it goes on the more its damaged. Putin can still cause devastating damage to the EU..... a stray missile hitting a nuclear  power station, I think he's hinting at this with his recent strikes close to a nuclear station using hypersonic missiles.

Ukraines supporters could bring this to an end quicker with increased support and training, they are choosing to prolong it in order to weaken Russia's influence on former Eastern block countries and their  olitical struggles, this is a benefit to USA ,NATO and the EU. Putins huge ego has led him and Russia into a right mess. 

 

[avfc1982am]

10 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

Have you not watched any of the propaganda currently being spouted by the Russians?

Putin can pull out of Ukraine and claim an imaginary victory if he wants. The Russians stupid enough to believe the current propaganda will believe whatever he says is the truth, and the ones smart enough to pretend to believe the propaganda will continue to do that too. Because he still controls all the levers of power - something that's unlikely to change if he decides to pull out of Ukraine.

He just doesn't want to do that (yet).

No he can't. Have you no been watching any of the propaganda? 

Putin cannot now just pull out of Ukraine and claim some sort of victory. NATO are still arming Ukraine who are now incidentally far more powerful militarily than they were, the Nazi's still govern in Kyiv, and he hasn't even taken the Donbas. Putin pulling out of Ukraine may well pacify Mr & Mrs Dumbov but it's not fooling the elite. Those that have funded and supported his little financially ruinous venture and paid with their futures

He ain't walking out of Ukraine claiming a hollow victory because even he knows, as soon as Russia pull out and the cost of war to Russia is calculated, the knifes will be out for him. All those Russians being told family are MIA when their actually dead are going to come looking for answers. 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Mic09 said:

Or he was a man who was scared to send another million British people to their deaths. Sometimes I don't think we appreciate what WW1 did to the entire nation. And likely it would have meant Britain losing the war and the German influence would have spread further for longer - German army was top notch back at the start of the war. 

No good choices can be made here. We face Putin militarily? WW3. We don't? Putin does what he pleases in Eastern Europe. 

What a shit show. 

We lost 450.000 soldiers and civilians in WW2, Hitler and the Axis killed more than 500.000 Roma, Gypsies, Jews, mentally ill, and other minorities in each of the following countries: Hungary, Poland, Romania, USSR, and over a 100.000 in more than 10 other countries.

Yes, you can debate 'is it worth it', but I'd wager that Putin would put up similar eerie numbers in Ukraine would he be allowed to occupy the whole country. A small political minority on the left in Europe and Britain should never be allowed to do what Chamberlain did with Sudetenland and Poland. Pacifism in the face of genocidal dictatorships leads to many more deaths than what intervention does, always.

In my opinion it's worth defending democracy and other nations from leaders like Putin, the alternative is just grim.

Edited March 14, 2023 by magnkarl

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

17 hours ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

TASS is reporting that German oil imports from Russia have reduced by 99.9% in 2023.

Refined Oil exports from Russia in Feb 23 are approx. 50 M a day now and will reduce further but only a bit.  The high in March 22 was approx. 550 M a day.

The refined products are special,  these products cannot be exported to India or China as it is not economically viable as a transaction.  China and India refine their own products from Crude and have the infrastructure all in place for this.  (Its odd as you end up with more than you started doing this type of refining).

Russia is now going to be holding a lot of this refined stuff with genuinely nowhere to send it and no economically viable way to get it there.

 

 

[Mic09]

15 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

We lost 450.000 soldiers and civilians in WW2, Hitler and the Axis killed more than 500.000 Roma, Gypsies, Jews, mentally ill, and other minorities in each of the following countries: Hungary, Poland, Romania, USSR, and over a 100.000 in more than 10 other countries.

Yes, you can debate 'is it worth it', but I'd wager that Putin would put up similar eerie numbers in Ukraine would he be allowed to occupy the whole country. A small political minority on the left in Europe and Britain should never be allowed to do what Chamberlain did with Sudetenland and Poland. Pacifism in the face of genocidal dictatorships leads to many more deaths than what intervention does, always.

In my opinion it's worth defending democracy and other nations from leaders like Putin, the alternative is just grim.

Sure. But in 1939 Hitler wasn't the Hitler we know today - he was perceived as a different political animal than the one we see today through perspective of WW2, death camps etc. 

I sympathise with your point. But you must appreciate defending democracy is a tricky operation when the consequence could be a nuclear exchange between superpowers. And in that scenario Ukraine suffers, as well as everyone else. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

11 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

 

I sympathise with your point. But you must appreciate defending democracy is a tricky operation when the consequence could be a nuclear exchange between superpowers. And in that scenario Ukraine suffers, as well as everyone else. 

Nukes are a weapon of last resort.  Even if Russia lost all of the land it’s taken since 2014 it’s nowhere near the point where nukes become an option.  

Russia keeps reminding people that it has nukes in order to spread fear and create opposition to the war.  Don’t fall for it.  

Nukes are stopping NATO destroying what’s left of the Russian Army and taking Moscow.  They are very effective in achieving that. 

Edited March 14, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Mic09]

3 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Nukes are a weapon of last resort.  Even if Russia lost all of the land it’s taken since 2014 it’s nowhere near the point where nukes become an option.  

Russia keeps reminding people that it has nukes in order to spread fear and create opposition to the war.  Don’t fall for it.  

I'm not falling for anything. But it's escalation that I do worry about.

USA decides to send planes, Russia reacts by bombing an important military/civilian target, NATO increases support by opening a new tank stream, Belarus gets more involved, front gets pushed, some missiles fall in Poland, NATO reacts, and all of a sudden the war gets a big bigger than Ukraine. 

No one is nuking anyone now. But if any party makes the wrong moves,we could very considerably get there in the not too distant future. 

 

[magnkarl]

28 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

I'm not falling for anything. But it's escalation that I do worry about.

USA decides to send planes, Russia reacts by bombing an important military/civilian target, NATO increases support by opening a new tank stream, Belarus gets more involved, front gets pushed, some missiles fall in Poland, NATO reacts, and all of a sudden the war gets a big bigger than Ukraine. 

No one is nuking anyone now. But if any party makes the wrong moves,we could very considerably get there in the not too distant future. 

 

Which important military\civilian targets do you propose that is, which Russia hasn't already bombed\tried to bomb?

Russian threats and escalations are hollow. They played their hand in the first 3 days, bombed civilians, bombed infrastructure, bombed close to the border of Poland, invaded the capital, invaded through Belarus, sent hit squads for the government and president.

Russia is like a bully who's threatening everyone while still getting his teeth kicked in by a smaller kid. No one, except for maybe Chomsky, is falling for it anymore.

Edited March 14, 2023 by magnkarl

[Jareth]

29 minutes ago, Mic09 said:

No one is nuking anyone now. But if any party makes the wrong moves,we could very considerably get there in the not too distant future.

Yeah there was definitely a bit of fear about this early on, from a lot of folks, but it appears time has told and Putin's fear factor has receded. I take comfort from the slow motion escalation, tanks have come in and have we even seen threats of retaliation? If so not many. Even the Russians have realised their threats are impotent. Not discounting that they don't have something else major yet to say in this conflict, but you'd imagine they would have played their hand by now, before Ukraine strengthened. Looks like the Ruskis plan to park the bus, a bloody large one that is.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Jareth