Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[KentVillan]

14 minutes ago, tinker said:

I can't see away this war will end other than a Russian capitulation, ii Putin either going or those around him getting the blame. The weather,  ground conditions and training obviously play a part but once the conditions are correct I can't see how Russia can stop the tanks pushing through their lines causing chaos. Russia may try and attack by air but I'm sure that would be a last throw of the dice with the air defence systems the Ukraine now have. Maybe it's just a pipe dream.

The main problem for the Ukraine will be once the wars over, policing a pro Russian population ( immigration and historical ties) in the east of the Ukraine, the fact that Russia will fuel terrorism and poke the flames of discontent with it's troll farms won't help.

This is a bit of a myth. It’s relatively more pro-Russian, but the idea that it’s majority pro-Moscow / Putin / etc is a fiction. There’s plenty of polling data going way back to show this.

But agree with your general point that an end to the war won’t bring an end to the enmities. This will be a mess that takes generations to resolve, sadly.

[LondonLax]

10 minutes ago, villa89 said:

The hope would be a civil war in Russia which would mean there would be no priority on meddling in foreign affairs.

Civil wars tend to be quite messy. It’s never been tried in a country with nukes dotted all over it either. Not sure I’d want to see the likes of Kadyrov or Prigozhin in charge of their own regional nuclear arsenal

[LondonLax]

3 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

This is a bit of a myth. It’s relatively more pro-Russian, but the idea that it’s majority pro-Moscow / Putin / etc is a fiction. There’s plenty of polling data going way back to show this.

But agree with your general point that an end to the war won’t bring an end to the enmities. This will be a mess that takes generations to resolve, sadly.

It might have been before the war but plenty of the moderates will have fled or suffered a worse fate since then.

[bickster]

Just now, LondonLax said:

It might have been before the war but plenty of the moderates will have fled or suffered a worse fate since then.

And plenty of previously pro-russians will have changed their minds now they've had family members rounded up and pressganged into fighting

Russian occupation will not have made many of them love the motherland more

[KentVillan]

18 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

It might have been before the war but plenty of the moderates will have fled or suffered a worse fate since then.

Let’s see, will depend a lot on the post war reconstruction and resettlement process.

Most ordinary civilians in wars aren’t die hards either way, they just want a peaceful life.

[sidcow]

39 minutes ago, villa89 said:

The hope would be a civil war in Russia which would mean there would be no priority on meddling in foreign affairs.

I'm not hoping for that. 

Civil war in a nation that has nuclear weapons is not a good thing. They will go missing. 

[sidcow]

30 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Civil wars tend to be quite messy. It’s never been tried in a country with nukes dotted all over it either. Not sure I’d want to see the likes of Kadyrov or Prigozhin in charge of their own regional nuclear arsenal

 

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

I'm not hoping for that. 

Civil war in a nation that has nuclear weapons is not a good thing. They will go missing. 

 

 

[trekka]

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

55 minutes ago, villa89 said:

The hope would be a civil war in Russia which would mean there would be no priority on meddling in foreign affairs.

The Kremlin has said that Ukraine death squads are hunting down the leaders of Wagner. 

Hopefully that means the leadership of Wagner will soon be killed by the Kremlin and they are placing the blame elsewhere. 

[sidcow]

10 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The Kremlin has said that Ukraine death squads are hunting down the leaders of Wagner. 

Hopefully that means the leadership of Wagner will soon be killed by the Kremlin and they are placing the blame elsewhere. 

Like a Rottweiler owner who encourages it to be viscous and a fighter then realises they can no longer control it at all.

[bickster]

12 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The Kremlin has said that Ukraine death squads are hunting down the leaders of Wagner. 

Hopefully that means the leadership of Wagner will soon be killed by the Kremlin and they are placing the blame elsewhere. 

Are they trying to trigger a civil war now?

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

Nah there's months and months of this to go yet. There'll be advances and wins for Ukraine but even with the new tanks the only way it will be over relatively quickly is Russian capitulation

I hope that does happen but I can't see it.

I along with others here really do think they'll begin to punch a hole southwards to the sea through Melitopol and Mariupol whilst just holding the Donbas front. That will have a number of effects

It will split the Russians into two separate fractured groups

It will cut the supply lines to those west of the hole and Crimea.Once they've done that or even whilst they are doing that, attempt to properly take out the Kerch Bridge. That cuts off any land supply to Crimea and makes it very hard to supply those troops to the west of the hole

That will have a huge negative effect on Russian moral on top of the huge logistics problem of resupplying Crimea

It would eventually force the Black Sea fleet back to mainland Russia too

Going back to the Kerch Bridge I'm failry dure if they do reach the sea, the bridge is then in HIMARS range and vitually the only way to supply Crimea would be by sea acorss the Kerch Straight because shipping in the Sea of Azov and the near Black Sea would absolutely be in Ukrainian range, the same would also be true of most Crimean airfields

Russia may have no option but to abandon Crimea. It may be impossible for them to be there. Many thousands of troops could be isolated. This would be no retreat from Kherson situation

I think the core central Donabas area will be the last to be liberated

 

That is just my inner armchair general speaking and it isn't based on any knowledge or information I've read

 

Very much where I am at.

I also think the Donbas is just too congested now and if you put your logical hat on... a bogged down wasteland with very little to gain and much to lose, including armament and supplies. There isn't enough to fight for at the moment in the Donbas imo. If anything it seems more of a holding tactic from Ukraine to exhaust Russian logistics. I've seen one or two reports suggest Ukraine only have 15,000 troops holding the frontline in the East around the Donbas(how true I don't know), it sound a crazily low number though. 

Luhansk is still pretty deadlocked with the terrain north to south providing high ground, valleys and rivers for both sides to defend from making it difficult to advance in area. Which is probably the reason for the stalemate from Svatove down to Kreminna and Severodontesk etc. From there your then into Soledar and Bakhmut and the messiest frontline.

I think the only advance making any logical sense, giving the freedom of movement to Ukrainian forces in order to gain huge ground is the South. Slicing Russian forces into two and potentially getting them caught in a pincer like trap between Kherson and Melitopol or Mauriupol could well spell the beginning of the end for Russia in Crimea.

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

52 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I'm not hoping for that. 

Civil war in a nation that has nuclear weapons is not a good thing. They will go missing. 

They might go missing. But its unlikely they could be used in a devastating way.  

Nukes are difficult to maintain.  At least a quarter of the UK's nukes are unoperational at any time.  They are also very difficult to prime and make ready for detonation. 

If nukes were easy to detonate it wouldn't have taken the world's greatest minds so long to work out how to do it.  

The main risk is that the material inside would be spread around by a dirty bomb.  But you could do exactly the same thing with material from your local hospital.  

Hollywood has created a perception that nukes are housed in steel boxes, have a visible countdown clock and are activated by a switch. 

 

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Spelling mishsteaks

[Genie]

19 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The Kremlin has said that Ukraine death squads are hunting down the leaders of Wagner. 

Hopefully that means the leadership of Wagner will soon be killed by the Kremlin and they are placing the blame elsewhere. 

I said a while back that hopefully one of these private armies would get a bigger offer from outside of Russia to turn on the Kremlin and take out Putin. 

The dream is still alive.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

3 minutes ago, bickster said:

Are they trying to trigger a civil war now?

Who knows.  If Russia loses this war they will be looking for people to blame.  Traitors and incompetents who undermined Russia.  

Wagner is a private company because Russia can distance itself from its activities.  I am sure they will very blamed for every warcrime possible.  

Meanwhile Wagner's leadership will be working out how to avoid being sacrificed to the Hauge. 

 

 

[avfc1982am]

22 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The Kremlin has said that Ukraine death squads are hunting down the leaders of Wagner. 

Hopefully that means the leadership of Wagner will soon be killed by the Kremlin and they are placing the blame elsewhere. 

I said before I think Prigozhin needs to be careful. 

[chrisp65]

1 hour ago, villa89 said:

The hope would be a civil war in Russia which would mean there would be no priority on meddling in foreign affairs.

Do you think we have a contingency plan for how many refugees we take when a quarter of a million starving disillusioned Russians start walking westward?

[avfc1982am]

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

14 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

They might do missing. But its unlikely they could be used in a devastating way.  

Nukes are difficult to maintain.  At least a quarter of the UK's nukes are unoperational at any time.  They are also very difficult to prime and make ready for detonation. 

If nukes were easy to detonate it wouldn't have taken the world's greatest minds so long to work out how to do it.  

The main risk is that the material inside would be spread around by a dirty bomb.  But you could do exactly the same thing with material from your local hospital.  

Hollywood has created a perception that nukes are housed in steel boxes, have a visible countdown clock and are activated by a switch. 

 

 

If anyone wants to know how difficult it is - this is the massive US department responsible for doing so. 

https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/maintaining-stockpile

"Maintaining the stockpile"  

Most nuclear weapons in the U.S. stockpile were produced during the 1950s and 1960s. At the time of their original production, nuclear weapons were not designed or intended to last indefinitely.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Mandy Lifeboats]

7 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Do you think we have a contingency plan for how many refugees we take when a quarter of a million starving disillusioned Russians start walking westward?

Yes.  It was called Brexit.  

Not our problem.