Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[villa89]

23 minutes ago, Genie said:

If the USA / Western countries gave Russia both barrels back in Feb / March then Russia would be straight back at home plotting how to use its military arsenal for a second go. 

I don't agree with this. After being overpowered so badly and suffering a humiliating defeat Russia would have its tail between its legs. There would be no possibility to claim a fake victory and it likely would have been the end of Putin. Western sanctions would also decimate their economy as they currently are and a power struggle would further weaken them. Add. in to the mix a possible attempt at Chechen independence at there's further scope for a weak messy Russia. 

The only possible risk was that the war ends quickly without much Russian losses, the EU cave on sanctions and buy up Russian gas again and then Putin uses that money to build a better army and constantly undermine Ukraine via corruption/shills/fake terrorist attacks etc which was happening anyway. 

[avfc1982am]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

Ukraine don’t have much of a choice. They are being supplied to what appears to be maintaining the stalemate in terms of battlegrounds. If the West pull out then Ukraine goes under quickly.

Unfortunately for Ukraine it looks like they are being used as a pawn in the war with Russia. 

This is ultimately the point I'm making. 

We can sit here debating x,y, z but Ukraine are the sufferers in this. 

We can debate that had the West given Ukraine the kit they needed months ago, things may have escalated, but there are no facts to really back this up. Russia have not shown any example of being competent enough to ramp this up because of their own failings. It's a pure numbers game as far as they are concerned which everybody knew was going to be the case anyway.

Russia are not going to red alert unless they're invaded, and getting smashed in Ukraine doesn't constitute invasion. I think the West have been piss poor in all this the last few months. We're all debating a few bloody tanks like its a game whilst Ukraine are getting sent back further and further as far as recovery concerned. 

"Don't worry Ukrainians we'll help rebuild your Country, even if there is nobody left and it takes 50 years". This is ultimately what is happening.

There is a burglary in progress, But hey, don't fight back. Let them smash the gaff up, kill your kids and we'll give you some coupons to replace everything when they've gone. 

[tinker]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

This is ultimately the point I'm making. 

We can sit here debating x,y, z but Ukraine are the sufferers in this. 

We can debate that had the West given Ukraine the kit they needed months ago, things may have escalated, but there are no facts to really back this up. Russia have not shown any example of being competent enough to ramp this up because of their own failings. It's a pure numbers game as far as they are concerned which everybody knew was going to be the case anyway.

Russia are not going to red alert unless they're invaded, and getting smashed in Ukraine doesn't constitute invasion. I think the West have been piss poor in all this the last few months. We're all debating a few bloody tanks like its a game whilst Ukraine are getting sent back further and further as far as recovery concerned. 

"Don't worry Ukrainians we'll help rebuild your Country, even if there is nobody left and it takes 50 years". This is ultimately what is happening.

There is a burglary in progress, But hey, don't fight back. Let them smash the gaff up, kill your kids and we'll give you some coupons to replace everything when they've gone. 

The USA is providing a huge share of help to the Ukrainians, more than the rest of the world combined. Europe is the most baffling of all, France and Germany, the leaders of it, are sitting on the fence, fiddling while Rome burns. Without the USA the Russians would have pushed through the Ukraine as soon as  the supplies ran out and Germany would have got it's gas supply back. 

[villa89]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

This is ultimately the point I'm making. 

We can sit here debating x,y, z but Ukraine are the sufferers in this. 

We can debate that had the West given Ukraine the kit they needed months ago, things may have escalated, but there are no facts to really back this up. Russia have not shown any example of being competent enough to ramp this up because of their own failings. It's a pure numbers game as far as they are concerned which everybody knew was going to be the case anyway.

Russia are not going to red alert unless they're invaded, and getting smashed in Ukraine doesn't constitute invasion. I think the West have been piss poor in all this the last few months. We're all debating a few bloody tanks like its a game whilst Ukraine are getting sent back further and further as far as recovery concerned. 

"Don't worry Ukrainians we'll help rebuild your Country, even if there is nobody left and it takes 50 years". This is ultimately what is happening.

There is a burglary in progress, But hey, don't fight back. Let them smash the gaff up, kill your kids and we'll give you some coupons to replace everything when they've gone. 

This is a very good summary.

The weakness of the west is embarrassing as is this misguided fear the Russia can actually do anything other than bully small nations. As was stated by someone else earlier in this thread, when this is all over and Joe Public are watching HBO documentaries on the horror it will be clear the inaction of western politicians lead to the deaths of 10's of thousands of people. 

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, tinker said:

Europe is the most baffling of all, France and Germany, the leaders of it, are sitting on the fence, fiddling while Rome burns.

France isn't so much any more. France is sending more Caesars and has approved other countries sending them too. They are also going to send MBTs (Leclercs) to Ukraine. France is now actively putting pressure on Germany

[NoelVilla]

15 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

It's not the only one. 

 

Can we hope for one of those to go through a roof?

[avfc1982am]

Just now, tinker said:

The USA is providing a huge share of help to the Ukrainians, more than the rest of the world combined. Europe is the most baffling of all, France and Germany, the leaders of it, are sitting on the fence, fiddling while Rome burns. Without the USA the Russians would have pushed through the Ukraine as soon as  the supplies ran out and Germany would have got it's gas supply back. 

It's not baffling at all. Which is sort of where I'm going with this. 

This isn't about the defeat of Russia anymore but the rebuilding of Ukraine. Hence why Countries either genuine in their care of what is going on, or those with more to lose are doing there upmost to help Ukraine now. They understand what's at play here in either the destruction of a nation or their own eventual security. Then you have the fence sitters who couldn't really care because they're heavily influenced by Russia already and would rather this all go away. And finally those that have everything to gain, either through a debt owed and the eventual windfall of rebuilding a Country. 

The dilly dallying of certain Countries through whatever means is leading to a crossroads. Civilian populations around the world are now looking at this conflict in a far different light than 11 months ago. The sympathy is dwindling and the concentration of closer problems taking president over Ukraine in many peoples eyes. Support is softening imo, and more and more questions regarding the actions of those who are supposed to be helping is leading to this due to the pissing around. It's like teasing someone that much that they eventually get to the stage where they don't want what you have anymore or are not interested in the bs. 

 

[avfc1982am]

2 minutes ago, NoelVilla said:

Can we hope for one of those to go through a roof?

I thought that earlier tbh. Matter of time.

[bickster]

16 minutes ago, NoelVilla said:

Can we hope for one of those to go through a roof?

Probably not that one, Stalin didn't skimp on the concrete. The other one posted was a much more modern building so probably  

[magnkarl]

35 minutes ago, bickster said:

France isn't so much any more. France is sending more Caesars and has approved other countries sending them too. They are also going to send MBTs (Leclercs) to Ukraine. France is now actively putting pressure on Germany

Have they confirmed the leclerc?

The re-export thing is a step forward, but the AMX tanks won't be delivered until March the earliest, likely even later. France isn't exactly delivering on par with i.e. Netherlands who are today saying they'd give their F-16's on request. France has delivered 18 Caesars so far, Denmark just blew that out of the water with 19 in one batch, everything Denmark has.

Germany is by far the most dissappointing, apart from Hungary who are essentially Putin shills. Germany expects to sell their kit to everyone, but when it comes to use of that kit against an army essentially plowing through Europe they're saying no even if Rheinmetall are all in for delivering.

When you look at that, compared to France sending maybe 0.5% of their total amount of Caesars it's just a sobering thought. Macron is a lame duck in a pond where he expects to be the big fish.

Edited January 20, 2023 by magnkarl

[bickster]

29 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Have they confirmed the leclerc?

Macron requested it yesterday I think, so bureaucracy next I think but the will is definitely there now 

[blandy]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

Netherlands who are today saying they'd give their F-16's on request

They can't give F-16s "on request". F-16s are US made and covered by ITAR. It would require US DoD permission for them to export their F-16s. Secondly, as NATO members, those Dutch F-16s are currently equipped with "NATO only" equipment, particularly, but not limited to, avionics, which is both incompatible with Ukraine's military infrastructure and also which (again., mostly the US, but potentially UK, or other nations) would also require export licenses to be granted by the original manufacturer nation government. This would include Transponder, Tactical Data link, Encrypted voice radios and crypto management modules, weapon aiming computers, Flight Control Computers, Navigation systems, Actuator Control systems...absolutely loads and loads of stuff. Further, Ukraine would need to have pilots trained/converted to F-16 to fly them, they'd need ground crew trained to maintain and repair and arm them, they'd need Ground Support Equipment (e.g Diesel Electric Power Sets), possibly LOx trolleys (Dunno if F-16s use LOx)...

It's all potentially do-able, but it would take a lot more than "here you lads, have at it".

There's a lot of "noise" from politicians and others, which is not really...credible. 

[bickster]

Ukraine has been testing this new Sonechko attack drone

[magnkarl]

24 minutes ago, blandy said:

They can't give F-16s "on request". F-16s are US made and covered by ITAR. It would require US DoD permission for them to export their F-16s. Secondly, as NATO members, those Dutch F-16s are currently equipped with "NATO only" equipment, particularly, but not limited to, avionics, which is both incompatible with Ukraine's military infrastructure and also which (again., mostly the US, but potentially UK, or other nations) would also require export licenses to be granted by the original manufacturer nation government. This would include Transponder, Tactical Data link, Encrypted voice radios and crypto management modules, weapon aiming computers, Flight Control Computers, Navigation systems, Actuator Control systems...absolutely loads and loads of stuff. Further, Ukraine would need to have pilots trained/converted to F-16 to fly them, they'd need ground crew trained to maintain and repair and arm them, they'd need Ground Support Equipment (e.g Diesel Electric Power Sets), possibly LOx trolleys (Dunno if F-16s use LOx)...

It's all potentially do-able, but it would take a lot more than "here you lads, have at it".

There's a lot of "noise" from politicians and others, which is not really...credible. 

All this is fine, but in order to donate something there needs to be a will. And when there’s a will there’s a way.

The argument around Germany vs Netherlands is that one side has substantially more will to help than the other. (I.e leopard)

[villakram]

One of the primary reasons for the Russian move was the ongoing arming of Ukraine and their calculation that in XX months time very little would be possible and their geo-strategic position would be significantly weakened given that Ukraine would not just sit and stare at it's shiny new toys. Somewhat of a chicken and egg situation for Ukraine of course, but one would suggest that earnest negotiations could have avoided all of this. Alas, the Minsk process was completely abandoned.

This US has no problem with this, as it's on someone else's doorstep, so away we went.

The absence of any desire for a negotiated settlement and all the associated zero-sum talk is a sad indictment of many.

[HKP90]

3 minutes ago, villakram said:

One of the primary reasons for the Russian move was the ongoing arming of Ukraine and their calculation that in XX months time very little would be possible and their geo-strategic position would be significantly weakened given that Ukraine would not just sit and stare at it's shiny new toys. Somewhat of a chicken and egg situation for Ukraine of course, but one would suggest that earnest negotiations could have avoided all of this. Alas, the Minsk process was completely abandoned.

This US has no problem with this, as it's on someone else's doorstep, so away we went.

The absence of any desire for a negotiated settlement and all the associated zero-sum talk is a sad indictment of many.

What are you implying with this, that Ukraine would have attacked Russia? 

Edit, sorry- misunderstood. Retract the Q. 

Edited January 20, 2023 by HKP90

[sidcow]

10 minutes ago, villakram said:

One of the primary reasons for the Russian move was the ongoing arming of Ukraine and their calculation that in XX months time very little would be possible and their geo-strategic position would be significantly weakened given that Ukraine would not just sit and stare at it's shiny new toys. Somewhat of a chicken and egg situation for Ukraine of course, but one would suggest that earnest negotiations could have avoided all of this. Alas, the Minsk process was completely abandoned.

This US has no problem with this, as it's on someone else's doorstep, so away we went.

The absence of any desire for a negotiated settlement and all the associated zero-sum talk is a sad indictment of many.

Yep, Ukraine was literally asking for it having an army and weapons and that. 

Russia had little other choice than to invade, kill and enslave thousands of Ukrainians and literally bring to rubble dozens of towns and cities. 

Edited January 20, 2023 by sidcow

[bickster]

11 minutes ago, villakram said:

One of the primary reasons for the Russian move was the ongoing arming of Ukraine

What arming of Ukraine?

Which weapons were sold to Ukraine prior to either 2014 or the 2022 invasion?

[HKP90]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

What arming of Ukraine?

Which weapons were sold to Ukraine prior to either 2014 or the 2022 invasion?

This was why I retracted the comment, I assumed that it meant the recent surge by Russia, not the original invasion. If not, then I still don't understand the point that was made. So having defensive armaments in case Russia invades (which they did) caused Russia to invade? Does anyone except paranoid Putin think that Ukraine was planning to attack Russia? How would any military build up in Ukraine (if it happened at all) be anything other than a defence in case Russia invaded. Demonstrably necessary I would say. 

 

 

[tinker]

23 minutes ago, villakram said:

One of the primary reasons for the Russian move was the ongoing arming of Ukraine and their calculation that in XX months time very little would be possible and their geo-strategic position would be significantly weakened given that Ukraine would not just sit and stare at it's shiny new toys. Somewhat of a chicken and egg situation for Ukraine of course, but one would suggest that earnest negotiations could have avoided all of this. Alas, the Minsk process was completely abandoned.

This US has no problem with this, as it's on someone else's doorstep, so away we went.

The absence of any desire for a negotiated settlement and all the associated zero-sum talk is a sad indictment of many.

Where did you get this story from?